NHL Betting Picks for Monday 11/27/23: Can We Really Bet on the Sharks?

Six games on Monday after the busy weekend, let's see what value is out there tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

Rangers -1.5 (+115)

Things could not be going much better for the New York Rangers right now. They have the best points percentage in the league and have gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.

They've gotten wins from three different goaltenders already and appear solid no matter who's in net. Tonight, it will be Igor Shesterkin, who has saved the second-most goals above expectation since the start of the 2021-22 season (71.18)

The Rangers are elite on special teams with the fourth-ranked power play and eighth ranked penalty kill. They aren't the best five-on-five team in the league in terms of possession, but the goaltending and special teams make them tough to beat.

The Buffalo Sabres are going in the opposite direction. They lost their most recent game 7-2 on Saturday. Tage Thompson is still injured, and he's proven to be the heartbeat of the Sabres' offense. They've now gone from 13th in expected goals (xG) at five-on-five last season (2.72) to 28th this season (2.36).

Buffalo will be starting Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in net. UPL has allowed 9.33 more goals than expected in the last three seasons.

The Rangers are allowing the fewest goals per game in the league. It's hard for me to see Buffalo having much offensive success in this game given that fact. They also will likely have a hard time slowing down New York's power play.

The Rangers beat Buffalo on the road 5-1 on opening night in their only meeting of the season so far. At home tonight, they should be able to win by at least two goals. The model at numberFire also likes the Rangers -1.5 goals, so it seems like a good bet to roll with tonight.

Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames

Under 6.5 Goals (-130)

The Vegas Golden Knights haven't demonstrated much of a Stanley Cup hangover to start this season. They have the third best points percentage in the NHL -- even after hitting a slight skid lately.

Where Vegas has excelled is defensively; they've allowed the third-fewest goals per game in the NHL. The system that Bruce Cassidy has them playing makes it easy on any goaltender in net, so it's no surprise that both Adin Hill and Logan Thompson have been solid. It looks like Hill will be in net tonight, and he's already saved 10.11 goals above expectation this season.

It's unlikely that the Calgary Flames are going to be a team that lights up either goaltender. They are having a similar problem as last season -- finishing their chances. They have the fifth-lowest shooting percentage in the league after finishing with the lowest last season.

Where Calgary has improved is in goal. Jacob Markstrom has saved 10.08 goals above expected in 14 games this season after saving just 1.5 above expected in 59 games last season. We know Markstrom is capable of being an elite goaltender considering he was nominated for the Vezina Trophy in 2021-22.

Both of these goalies have been excellent, and neither team is elite offensively to make me think this game is going to have a ton of goals. That's why I'm on the under tonight.

Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks

Sharks ML (+184)

Okay, this one isn't going to be pretty, but it does make some amount of sense. You may have to ignore the team names when you submit this bet, pay no attention to the game, and hope there is more money in your account afterwards.

The Washington Capitals have been a positive surprise so far this season. They've gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and are third in the Eastern Conference by points percentage.

However, there appears to be some smoke and mirrors to earn this record. They still have a negative seven goal differential and are controlling below 50% of the xG at five-on-five. They also have the worst power play in the league with a miniscule 6.0% success rate.

As bad as things have been for the San Jose Sharks, there are some reasons to bet them tonight. They actually have better five-on-five xG numbers than the Capitals, and that even is adjusted for the score effects in those games where the Sharks were getting completely blown out.

San Jose has gotten all four of their wins at home, and their 4-6-2 home record isn't terrible. They have definitely been more competitive in games of late despite still being the worst team in the NHL. That includes beating the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday.

Washington is 31st in the league in goals per game -- ahead of only the Sharks. Getting the price we are on San Jose tonight, I think it's worth betting on them against a Capitals team that is probably not as good as their record suggests.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.