NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 12/31/23

Sunday in the NHL during football season is usually quiet, but we've got nine games before most of the league gets New Year's Day off. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders

Islanders ML (-108)

This line was a bit of a stunner, but the Pittsburgh Penguins used their best goaltender yesterday. That'll level the playing field between these two teams quite a bit.

The drop between Tristan Jarry, who is top five in overall goals saved above expectation (GSAx), to Alex Nedeljkovic is fairly significant. Nedeljkovic has posted a middle-of-the-road 0.83 GSAx this month.

On the flip side, Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders has been doing Yeoman's work in front of one of the league's worst defenses, posting 3.45 GSAx in December. That's 22nd across the entire NHL.

It'll likely influence public activity that, just five days ago with two different goalies, the Pens beat the Isles by a score of 7-0 on New York's home ice. Now, this matchup is a pick 'em as the miniature series shifts to Pittsburgh? I won't be one to fall for a proverbial trap with new netminders in the fold.

Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars

Blackhawks +1.5 (+122)
Blackhawks ML (+290)

I'm just stunned these lines are so wide. The Chicago Blackhawks should not pay nearly 3-to-1 to win today with a significantly better goaltender at the moment.

Petr Mrazek has been on fire in the final month of 2023. He's posted 7.27 GSAx in December, the fifth-most in the NHL. Algorithms and overall trends about the 11-22-2 Blackhawks are likely missing that they're a fundamentally different team when Mrazek gets the call compared to Arvid Soderblom (-7.11 GSAx in December).

On the other side, the Dallas Stars are having significant issues in goal. In December, it hasn't mattered if Jake Oettinger (-4.65 GSAx) or Scott Wedgewood (-3.75 GSAx) have gotten the call; they've both struggled.

The season-long totals don't reflect such a wide disparity, but I'll nervously back the reeling Chicago side in this one. Unless Oettinger or Wedgewood turn it completely around, they should be able to pot a goal or two to keep things tight.

Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks

Ducks +1.5 (-130)
Ducks ML (+176)

The Edmonton Oilers are coming off an emotional win over the Los Angeles Kings in overtime on Saturday, but they best be careful heading to Orange County this evening.

Edmonton will be forced to turn to their backup goaltender, Calvin Pickard, for this one. Pickard hasn't been disastrous in this first month with the Oil (-0.94 GSAx), but he's also not been actively helpful with tired legs set to skate in front of him this evening.

Hosting the Oilers tonight will be the Anaheim Ducks, who last played Friday. That'll mean John Gibson, who is one of four to outpace Mrazek at 7.51 GSAx this month. Anaheim has won three of their last six on his back.

On normal rest, Edmonton (57.6 expected goals-for rate) likely skates circles around Anaheim (44.8 xGF%). However, with a rest advantage and home ice, the underdogs are absolutely live to keep this one close, and I'll sprinkle the moneyline on both of Sunday's potential upsets.

San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche

Over 6.5 (+100)
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goal (-115)

These two clubs met earlier this month in Denver, and the Colorado Avalanche won 6-2. That's not the only reason to take the over in this spot.

Largely, it's because the San Jose Sharks are a historical, seemingly fictional level of bad. They've lost seven in a row and, more notably for this purpose, have ceded at least four goals in each of their last six games. I expected San Jose to regress toward "normal bad" as the season progressed, but it's been the exact opposite.

On the flip side, the Avs are a modest dancing partner for an over. Not only is their offense pretty elite (3.19 expected goals per 60 minutes), but the Avalanche's recent history as a brick wall on defense is crumbling a bit. Colorado is just 11th in expected goals per 60 allowed (3.11), and Alexandar Georgiev (0.68 GSAx in December) just hasn't been a true difference-maker.

I was thrilled to see numberFire's model -- a value model that typically loves unders -- digging this over. It believes it cashes 55.8% of the time.

numberFire's projections also believe in a pretty big night for Nathan MacKinnon. Amazingly, MacKinnon's projection for 0.76 goals isn't a typo; the Sharks are just that crummy. Translated to a betting market, nF would assign -317 odds for Kid Mack to score, so I won't complain about the -115 odds for him to light a lamp on FanDuel.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.