NHL Betting: How Many Points Will Connor McDavid Score in 2023-24?

There was talk in hockey circles before last season that Connor McDavid was the best player in the world but not the best goal scorer. McDavid -- like other generational players we've seen -- appeared to take that as a challenge.

He decided to go play a little differently and had the highest shot rate of his career last year. That led to him scoring 20 more goals in 2022-23 than he had ever scored in a season, finishing with 64. He also had a career high in assists with 89.

His 153 points were by far the most we've seen in the salary-cap era. The question now is: can it be repeated?

Looking at the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the line for McDavid's point total is listed at 137.5. Will he be able to beat that total?

Why Connor McDavid Could Go Over 137.5 Points

We are getting a good amount of wiggle room on this line -- McDavid cleared this by 15 points last season.

Of course, he did a ton of damage on the power play. The Edmonton Oilers' power play was the best the league has ever seen, scoring on 32.4% of their opportunities. In the playoffs, that shot up to a stunning 46.2%.

McDavid had 71 points on the man-advantage in 2022-23 -- close to half his total. The Oilers' power play actually got better when Evan Bouchard was installed on the top unit after the trade deadline. He'll be there all season (save for an injury), and he is a better fit for the unit with his booming slap shot.

Whenever a player sets new career-high marks in goals or assists, we need to look at two numbers to determine if it was a fluke. Those are their individual shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage, which measures his team's shooting percentage when he's on the ice.

For McDavid, neither number is too far out of whack. Both were career highs, but his 18.18% shooting percentage was just slightly more than one percentage point higher than his previous career high of 17.08%. His on-ice shooting percentage was a career best by just 0.21 percentage points.

The NHL has seen a significant scoring increase over the past two seasons. Only two players between 1995-96 and 2020-21 scored 60 goals in a season. Since then, three different players have reached that mark. The theories vary on why that has happened, but the high-scoring environment certainly helps the case that McDavid can keep up his ridiculous scoring pace from last season.

Sidney Crosby was asked if McDavid could hit 170 points and said he wouldn't bet against it. With the way McDavid has constantly reached unthinkable heights, Sid is not alone in those thoughts.

Why McDavid Might Not Reach 137.5 Points

We'll start off by saying that the obvious reason McDavid could go under this point total is an injury. That's something no one wants to see, but the risk always has to be considered.

McDavid has had two significant injuries in his career. The first one in his rookie season caused him to play only 47 games. The second one was a brutal knee injury that happened in the last game of the season, so he didn't end up missing any regular season games.

With that said, even if McDavid plays the majority of the 82 games, there are still ways he can go under his total.

He was actually only third in the league in even-strength points last year. If for some reason the Oilers' power play goes cold or doesn't get as many opportunities, it would be tough for him to make it up at five-on-five play.

The last time we saw a scoring explosion across the league like the current one, it was followed by the most defensive era of hockey in the modern NHL. Coaches tend to be more concerned with defensive structure and would rather not be playing high-scoring games. Coaches all around the league might have spent all off-season trying to create a new defensive system to slow down McDavid and the Oilers.

McDavid's 153 points is very much an outlier in the modern game. The most anyone else has scored in the salary-cap era in a season is 128. McDavid putting up 25 more points than anyone else since 2005-06 is a truly astonishing gap.

Even in an excellent 2021-22 season, McDavid didn't come close to this number. It really comes down to how good the Oilers power play will be. If they can get around 30%, McDavid has a shot of hitting this total again, but that's far from a given. Last year's Edmonton team is the only team in this era to finish with a power play above 30%, so the Oilers have their work cut out for them if they're to hit that clip again.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.