NFL Win Totals: Will the Seahawks Win at Least Nine Games?

The Seattle Seahawks ended the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, finishing second in the NFC West and earning the 7 seed in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With an ascending Geno Smith under center, Seattle is looking to return to the playoffs.

Will the Seahawks surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Seattle Seahawks 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5

• Over: -142
• Under: +116

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -122
Odds to Win the NFC West: +200
Odds to Win the NFC: +1300
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +3500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Seattle Could Win Over 8.5 Games

• Geno Smith Maintains His 2022 Level
• Rookies Make an Impact on Offense
• New Additions Improve the Defense
• The NFC West

An afterthought after trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, the Seahawks surprised everyone last season. Led by a resurgent Geno Smith, they defied the odds and made the playoffs with an offense that scored the ninth-most points (407) and earned Pro Football Focus' (PFF) 14th-highest grade (75.9).

To say Smith had a breakout season would be an understatement.

Entering the 2022 season, Smith had never thrown more than 13 touchdown passes in a campaign and had earned a PFF offense grade of 65.0 or less in six of his eight seasons. In 2023, he set career-highs in nearly every category, completing 424 of 607 attempts (69.9%) for 4,535 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. That earned him PFF's ninth-highest grade (79.3) at the position.

Smith's breakout campaign elevated the Seahawks' offense and allowed them to remain competitive in what was supposed to be a lost season. For them to remain competitive this season -- and win at least nine games -- he will have to maintain that level of play. Seattle's path to nine wins begins with Smith proving that last year wasn't a fluke. If he can be the same player he was last season, the Seahawks roster is talented enough to win at least nine games. Any improvement above last season, and Seattle may be able to set their sights on larger goals.

Even if Smith regresses slightly, he will be working with a better supporting cast on offense this season. Seattle had two picks apiece in each of the first and second round of this year's draft, and used one pick in each round on offense, adding wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th overall) and running back Zach Charbonnet (52nd overall).

With Smith-Njigba joining veteran wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks have one of the best pass-catching trios in the league. Smith-Njigba has the second-best odds (+300) to lead rookies in receiving yards this season, according to the NFL prop betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. With defenses forced to focus on Metcalf and Lockett, Smith-Njigba should have plenty of opportunity this season. If he takes advantage of it, he can be a difference-maker for the Seahawks right away.

Charbonnet joins sophomore standout Kenneth Walker III in Seattle's backfield. Walker, the 41st overall pick in the 2022 draft, was excellent as a rookie, recording 1,050 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns on 228 carries while tacking on 27 receptions on 35 targets for 165 receiving yards. Given Walker's success, Seattle selecting Charbonnet was a bit of a surprise, but it gives them a dynamic duo at a position they value more than nearly any other team in the league. Seattle gave 130 carries to running backs other than Walker last season. Charbonnet could handle the majority of those carries this year and will have a chance to make an impact for Seattle.

While the Seahawks' offense impressed last season, their defense was a problem. They allowed the eighth-most points in the league (401) and ranked 23rd in PFF's team defense grade. While the Hawks' offense can still improve, defense is where Seattle can make the largest gains in 2023. Attempting to do just that, the Seahawks make several impactful acquisitions this offseason.

In the draft, they used the sixth overall pick on cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The top cornerback prospect in the draft, Witherspoon will likely immediately improve a secondary that earned PFF's 10th-lowest grade last season (63.5). It's a massive addition for a Seattle team that will face Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp twice per season in addition to out-of-division clashes with Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown. With the 37th overall pick, Seattle selected linebacker Derick Hall. Over his last three seasons at Auburn, Hall recorded 19.5 sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss. He will help to bolster a Seahawks pass rush that ranked fifth-worst last year, according to PFF.

In free agency, the Seahawks signed defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones to a three-year, $51.5 million contract. They also brought in safety Julian Love, defensive lineman Jarran Reed, and linebackers Bobby Wagner and Devin Bush. Together alongside Seattle's rookies, this group of new additions will be tasked with reviving the Seahawks' defense. If they can do so, Seattle's path to winning at least nine games will be much easier.

Finally, the Seahawks' chances to win nine games should be aided by the NFC West. Gone are the days of the NFC West being one of the most competitive divisions in the league. The Arizona Cardinals (4.5 wins) have the lowest win total in the NFL. The Los Angeles Rams (6.5) are tied with several teams for the second-lowest win total. The San Francisco 49ers remain a very tough obstacle, but getting to face the Cardinals and Rams twice is a huge boost for Seattle's chances of winning at least nine games in 2023.

Why Seattle Could Win Under 8.5 Games

• Geno Smith Regresses
• Rookies Start Slow
• The Defense Remains Average

Smith's breakthrough season was one of the most surprising storylines of last year. Given his previous production, the assumption was that Smith's play would eventually regress and that he would resemble the signal-caller who failed to make an impact in his previous stints with the New York Jets, New York Giants, and Los Angeles Chargers. That regression never came, and this offseason, the Seahawks made a commitment to Smith, signing him to a three-year extension.

What the Seahawks didn't do this offseason is more impactful than what they did do. After signing Smith to an extension, they did not use their draft capital to trade up and secure a quarterback. Sitting at the fifth spot in the draft, they could have tried to move up to select one of the top rookie passers, but they did not. They also could have nabbed Will Levis at pick 5 or 20, but, again, they did not.

The result is a Seattle roster that's most likely point of failure is the most important position in the game. If Smith does regress, Seattle will have a difficult time winning at least nine games. Even if Smith maintains his current level of play, it could still be a tough path. With Smith playing at a career-best last season, Seattle still needed back-to-back wins in Weeks 17 and 18, including an overtime win over the struggling Rams, to reach nine Ws. The margin for error is wider this year with an improved roster around Geno, but the Seahawks' outlook is still firmly tied to Smith's play.

Another obstacle for Seattle is the potential for a slow start from their rookies and new arrivals. While the talent level of the Hawks' roster has improved, it may take some time for their new additions to gel.

If that happens, it will make their schedule more difficult. Seattle opens their season with an easier stretch of opponents, facing the Rams, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants before their Week 5 bye. A slow start could see them squander four winnable games and be in a much worse position when the difficult part of their schedule arrives later in the season.

From Week 12 to Week 15, Seattle has a brutally difficult slate of opponents, facing the 49ers (twice), Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle closes with a much easier three-week stretch against the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Steelers. A slow start could leave them needing to win all three to secure nine wins, similar to last year.

A lack of chemistry and continuity could have a larger impact on Seattle's defense than their offense. There are more new additions on D and far more progress that needs to be made on that side of the ball. Seattle needs their offseason additions to make an impact, ideally as quickly as possible. If they fail to do so, or if the improvement is only marginal, the Seahawks could find themselves in a similar situation to last year, needing the offense to do the heavy lifting to win games.

Ultimately, Seattle exceeded expectations in numerous categories in 2022 and still needed an OT win against a dysfunctional Rams team in Week 18 to win nine games. To reach that number again this season, they need to avoid regression on offense and improve on defense. Their moves this offseason give them a good chance to do so, but it may still be a tall task for a Seahawks side that was expected to be in full rebuild mode at this point last season. If Seattle falters this season, 2022 could end up looking like an outlier campaign, not the new normal with this roster.

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