NFL Win Totals: Will the Packers Succeed With Jordan Love Under Center?

The Green Bay Packers ended the 2022 season with an 8-9 record, finishing 3rd in the NFC North and 10th in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 7.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Following Aaron Rodgers' trade to the New York Jets, Green Bay is looking to start a new era with Jordan Love at quarterback.

Will the Packers surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5

• Over: -115
• Under: -105

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +138
Odds to Win the NFC North: +350
Odds to Win the NFC: +1800
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Green Bay Could Win Over 7.5 Games:

• Jordan Love Is Ready
• Young Wide Receivers Excel
• A Favorable Schedule

The Packers' path to winning at least eight games this season starts with Jordan Love. For Green Bay to have any chance at a successful season in 2023, Love has to provide at least league-average quarterback play in his first season as a starter.

Since being selected with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft, Love has played in just 10 games and started only one. In his 10 appearances, he has completed 50 of 83 pass attempts (60.2%) for 606 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for two seasons, Love should be more comfortable with navigating an NFL season than most first-time starters are, but he still has to prove he can do the job. If he can -- and if Love surpasses expectations -- the Packers' path to winning at least eight games becomes much easier.

Love's play will be heavily dependent on Green Bay's young wide receiver group, led by sophomores Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Both Watson and Doubs had impactful stretches during their rookie seasons. Watson, the 34th overall pick in the 2022 draft, missed several games due to injury and finished with 41 receptions on 66 targets for 611 yards (14.9 yards per reception) and 7 touchdowns. Doubs, a fourth-round pick in last year's draft, also missed multiple games, finishing his rookie year with 42 receptions on 67 targets for 425 yards (10.1 yards per reception), and 3 touchdowns.

Rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed, the 50th overall pick in this year's draft, will join Watson and Doubs at the top of the Packers' depth chart. Together, this trio is expected to account for the large majority of Love's targets this season. How they perform as they gain experience will have a monumental impact on Love's performance as well as the Packers' potential to win at least eight games. If the young wideouts excel, there are upside scenarios where Love finds himself working with an impactful pass-catching group that elevates his play along with Green Bay's 2023 outlook.

The Packers' schedule provides their inexperienced offense with som eopportunities this season. The Packers have the 11th-easiest schedule via 2023 win totals. According to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Green Bay has only three games against teams ranked inside the top-10 -- one against the Kansas City Chiefs and two against the Detroit Lions.

Their schedule is full of teams expected to finish in the middle of the pack this season, including matchups with the New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos, and Pittsburgh Steelers. If Love and the Packers' young playmakers excel, they will find themselves facing a schedule with a lot of winnable games.

Why Green Bay Could Win Under 7.5 Games:

• Jordan Love Struggles
• A Lack of Chemistry on Offense
• The NFC North Exceeds Expectations

The flip side to Love being ready for the spotlight is a season where he is learning on the job. The Packers are attempting to move on from a generational talent who has been the cornerstone of their organization for nearly two decades. That is not an easy thing to do, and it's something that most organizations would struggle to recover from, especially in their first season.

Love could show signs of potential and still struggle this year, as many promising quarterbacks have done in their first year as a starter. This is especially possible because of the lack of veteran talent he is working with at wide receiver. While the youth of the Packers' wide receiver group creates the potential for some tantalizing upside scenarios, there are plenty of pitfalls, as well.

Love will enter this season with almost no in-game experience alongside the top three options in his wide receiver group. Four inexperienced players with little chemistry accounting for the majority of touches in a passing game is a perfect storm for a dysfunctional offense. Green Bay does have an excellent and experienced running back duo in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but an impactful passing game will likely be necessary to get them over the line to eight wins.

Finally, while the Packers' schedule as a whole provides them with a number of decent opportunities, their division, the NFC North, is an obstacle. After winning only eight games last season, the Packers likely took a step backward when they moved from Rodgers to Love. Meanwhile, the other three teams in their division improved.

The Lions added several impactful rookies on both sides of the ball and are trending in the right direction after finishing last year with 8 wins in their last 10 games. They scored the fifth-most points (453) in the NFL last season and could be more productive this year with the offseason additions of running back Jahmyr Gibbs, tight end Sam LaPorta, and sophomore wide receiver Jameson Williams (once he returns from his six-game suspension). Their defense, which was the Lions' biggest weakness last year, should also be improved with the additions of Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton to the secondary as well as multiple rookies via the draft.

The Minnesota Vikings scored the seventh-most points in the NFL last season (424) and used their first-round pick on wide receiver Jordan Addison. Like Detroit, their primary weakness was their defense, which they attempted to address with several offseason moves and a change in defense coordinator from Ed Donatell to Brian Flores.

The Chicago Bears were also active this offseason, bringing in wide receiver D.J. Moore to bolster their pass-catching group and improving their offensive line by drafting Darnell Wright 10th overall and signing right guard Nate Davis to a three-year, $30 million contract in free agency. After allowing the most points in the league last season (463), the Bears made several additions to their defense, most notably signing linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. They also selected defensive players with both of their second-round picks as well as their only third-round selection.

An argument could be made that no division improved as much this offseason as the NFC North did. All of that happening while the Packers likely took at least a small step backward paints a worrying picture for Green Bay's 2023 outlook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.