NFL Win Totals: Will the Bengals Clear a High Bar?

The Cincinnati Bengals went 12-5 in 2023 en route to winning the AFC North.

In the most recent postseason, they defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Wild Card weekend before winning at the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. From there, Cincinnati narrowly lost in the AFC Championship game against eventual Super Bowl LVII winner, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bengals' win total for 2023 is set at 11.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Under superstar quaterback Joe Burrow, Cincy is less than two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance of their own. Transparently, this is a team that comes into the 2023-24 season with towering expectations.

Not that it matters to him, but can head coach Zac Taylor get this Bengals bunch over the highest win total on FanDuel Sportsbooks' board?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 11.5

Over: +110
Under: -134

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -310
Odds to Win the AFC North: +130
Odds to Win the AFC: +500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Cincinnati Could Win Over 11.5 Games:

• The Obvious -- Joe Burrow
• Elite Offensive Skill Group
• Experience with Pressure

Since winning the 2020 CFP National Championship in historic fashion, Joe "Shiesty" Burrow has taken the NFL by storm. He was proficient in his rookie campaign before a season-ending ACL injury. Coming back from that, he has ranked within the top-eight NFL quarterbacks in yardage, passing touchdowns, and completion percentage every year.

Burrow has taken the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship games, splitting the pair with Kansas City. Simply, Burrow seems to have that intangible coolness in any situation. His calm and confident demeanor coupled with his on-field abilities has turned him into a superstar.

Of course, Burrow has a decorated cast of characters in Cincinnati to distribute the football to. His teammate at LSU, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, is the most dynamic player in the Bengals skill group. Chase -- the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year -- has already totaled 168 regular season receptions for 22 touchdowns and over 2,500 yards in two seasons at the NFL level.

Also in the receiving corps are Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Along with Chase, the trio all produced upwards of 750 receiving yards and 5 scores in 2022. Trenton Irwin is also a quality red zone target for Burrow; Irwin chimed in with four touchdown catches last year after Week 9.

Joe Mixon is still the starting running back for Cincinnati. Despite displeasure with his own recent postseason usage, Zac Taylor appears confident in Mixon's abilities for 2023. He is a bonafide threat in both their ground and air attacks.

All in all, the Bengals have not had much roster turnover in recent years, carrying entire positional units with significant experience in high-pressure situations. In close games, Cincy is confident in their key contributors to make the necessary plays. The Bengals have aspirations of hoisting the next Lombardi Trophy (+1000, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel), and they know what it takes to get there.

Why Cincinnati Could Win Under 11.5 Games:

• Strength of Schedule
• Pass Protection Issues
• Highest Total on the Board

Most of the strength of schedule metrics seem to have Cincinnati among the middle of the pack for the upcoming year, but I genuinely see them having a more difficult catalog. As always, six games will be within the division; that means two contests each against the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Unsurprisingly, Pro Football Focus has the AFC North ranked as the best circuit in the NFL. Be that as it may, Cincinnati is a +130 favorite to win the division at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Since the Bengals earned the AFC North crown last year, their 2023-24 schedule has them facing two fellow division winners from within the conference: the Bills in Week 9 and Kansas City in (deep water) Week 17.

From there, Cincinnati's division drew the NFC West and AFC South, so that means competitive games for the Bengals against the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks (on the road), and Jacksonville Jaguars.

From an Xs and Os perspective, Cincy's biggest issue has been their inability to keep Burrow standing upright. Frankly, it has been a statistical anomaly how many games the Bengals have won over the past two seasons in ratio to how many times Burrow has been hit. For clarity, Burrow was sacked 51 times in 2021 (most in the NFL) before 41 occurrences last season. Cincinnati has won 22 regular season games during that span.

Fortunately for Burrow, assistance in that department has arrived in Southwestern Ohio. Coming over from the rival Chiefs, left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. will look to secure Burrow's blindside. Ted Karras and Alex Kappa are also newcomers along the offensive line in 2023. Seemingly, the unit can only trend upward from here.

It should be noted that the Bengals win total of 11.5 games is tied with last year's Super Bowl participants (the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles) for the highest number at FanDuel Sportsbook. At the time of authorship, the under for Cincinnati's 11.5-win total is juiced to -134 odds.

Obviously, the Bengals are capable of going over in this market; they just won a dozen games in 2022-23. Still, the difficulty of doing that against tough competition cannot be understated.

Fortunately for Cincinnati, they have a defense -- led by Trey Hendrickson -- that plays stingy against the run (allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards last year) as well as the pass. As any student of American football knows, a durable defense is required to get through road and inclement weather environments -- of which the AFC has many.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.