NFL Win Totals: Will the Bears Take the Next Step?

The Chicago Bears ended the 2022 season with a 3-14 record, finishing last in both the NFC North and NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 7.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

After some key offseason additions, Chicago is looking to take the next step in a competitive NFC North.

Will the Bears surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Bears 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5

• Over: -112
• Under: -108

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +172
Odds to Win the NFC North: +420
Odds to Win the NFC: +2500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Chicago Could Win Over 7.5 Games

• Justin Fields Improves as a Passer
• Offseason Additions Make an Impact
• The NFC North Stumbles

Justin Fields improved as a sophomore, completing 192 of 318 (60.3%) pass attempts for 2,242 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions with 1,142 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns on 160 carries. His pass yards per game decreased slightly from his rookie season, but he improved in other key metrics and led all quarterbacks in rushing yards. If Fields can improve as a passer in 2023 and maintain his incredible impact on the ground, he will provide the Bears' offense with the foundation they need to win at least eight games.

The addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore should help. With Moore at the top of the depth chart above Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, Fields will enter 2023 with the best group of pass-catchers he has had so far in his career. He should also benefit from an improved offensive line. The Bears used the 10th overall pick in this year's NFL draft to select offensive tackle Darnell Wright and signed right guard Nate Davis to a three-year, $30 million contract in free agency.

The Bears addressed their defense in a big way this offseason after allowing the most points in the league in 2022 (463). In free agency, they signed defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. In the draft, they selected defensive lineman Gervon Dexter with the 53rd overall pick, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson with the 56th overall pick, and defensive tackle Zacch Pickens with the 64th overall pick. These additions provide Chicago with an influx talent, which was sorely needed.

Finally, Chicago's path to eight wins depends largely on the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers on the New York Jets, the NFC North is more wide open than it has been in some time. The Minnesota Vikings won the division last season but struggled on defense and enter this year with the second-best odds (+270) to win the division in 2023. The Detroit Lions -- who closed last season strong -- haven't made the playoffs since 2016 but are favorites to win the division (+145). The Packers, in the first season of the Jordan Love era, have the third-best odds to win the NFC North (+350). There are upside and downside cases to be made for all three of these teams. The uncertainty provides an opportunity for Chicago.

Why Chicago Could Win Under 7.5 Games

• The NFC North Excels
• The Inexperience of New Additions

The flip side to the NFC North stumbling is the possibility that the entire division could exceed expectations. The Lions won 8 of their final 10 games last campaign, barely missing out on the postseason after a 1-6 start. They made several key additions in the draft, and their outlook for 2023 is the best it has been in over a decade. If their defense improves and the offense remains the same -- or takes another step forward -- they could be a real force.

The Vikings won 13 games last season despite a defense that allowed the fourth-most points (427) in the NFL. Their offense, which scored the seventh-most points (424), could be improved with the addition of rookie first-round wide receiver Jordan Addison. The Vikings made a change at defensive coordinator, bringing in Brian Flores to replace Ed Donatell, and made a couple of additions to their defense in free agency and the draft. If the defense improves, even to just league average, they could be dangerous.

The Packers enter the season with an inexperienced quarterback and a projected starting wide receiver trio that has just two seasons of NFL experience between the three of them. While they could struggle as they gain experience, Green Bay could also hit the ground running and perform well. The range of outcomes is wide for this group. Despite their lack of experience, they have the eighth-best odds to win the NFC.

If these upside scenarios happen, it will make it difficult for the Bears to win at least eight games.

For Chicago, there is a risk that their offseason additions take time to adjust. In their first five contests this season, the Bears have winnable games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, and Washington Commanders. A slow start could see them fail to capitalize on those opportunities and make the path to winning over 7.5 games even more difficult. How quickly Chicago's new additions build chemistry and play up to their potential will have a large impact on their win total at the end of the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.