NFL Win Totals: Will a Tough Schedule Keep the Dolphins to Single-Digit Wins?

The Miami Dolphins ended the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, finishing in second place in the AFC East and losing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The first season under Mike McDaniel was a promising one and has given Dolphins fans reasons to believe that this season could be even better.

Will the Dolphins surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

• Over: -110
• Under: +110

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -105
Odds to Win the AFC East: +290
Odds to Win the AFC: +1200
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2500

Why Miami Could Win Over 9.5 Games:

• Dynamic Passing Game If Tua Can Stay Healthy
• Year 2 Mike McDaniel
• Improving Defense

The Dolphins really spiced things up last offseason when they hired an exciting offensive mind in Mike McDaniel to be their head coach. They then made a huge trade to acquire Tyreek Hill, forming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league with Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

They had a breakout performance in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns in that one while each of the receivers had at least 10 catches for 150-plus yards.

This silenced the Tua doubters for a bit, and he proceeded to play well throughout the season. The thing that derailed Tua's season was injuries. He suffered a concussion in Week 4 that kept him out for three games. He then suffered another concussion in Week 16 and missed the rest of the season, including the playoffs.

Tua was elite through nine games last season. He had the Dolphins in a position to be one of the best teams in the AFC. The concussion issues are certainly scary, as they could linger. If the Dolphins can keep Tua upright, it would go a long way to helping the team win.

The success that the Fins had on offense has to have something to do with the aforementioned McDaniel. He was just a first-year head coach but had experience in successful offenses with the San Francisco 49ers.

Waddle and Hill fit perfectly in McDaniel's system, which emphasizes yards after the catch.

McDaniel is also adept at designing run schemes, and newly drafted Devon Achane has the explosiveness to thrive in that system. They have solid depth at running back with veterans Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert, as well.

Miami's weakness last season was on the defensive side of the ball. Their defense ranked 21st overall, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They have made some moves to help repair that since the middle of last season.

The first move they made ahead of the trade deadline was acquiring Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos. Chubb gave the Dolphins the pass rusher they coveted, and he will look to add even more pressure in 2023.

Miami was also lacking in the secondary, and they addressed that in the offseason. They made a trade to acquire Jalen Ramsey and had to give up only a third-round pick and Hunter Long. This gives them a true shutdown cornerback who they can use to shadow number-one receivers if they wish, and Ramsey will play on the opposite side of another solid corner in Xavien Howard.

Why Miami Might Not Win Over 9.5 Games:

• Defense Doesn't Improve
• Tua Doesn't Stay Healthy
• Tough Schedule

The Dolphins did make improvements to their defense, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough. Chubb is a promising talent but had only 2.5 sacks in eight games with the Dolphins. Their adjusted sack rate was below the league average.

The addition of Ramsey will definitely help, but they still aren't exactly talent-laden at every position. They didn't add any significant free agents to the D, and used just one of their four draft picks on a defensive player.

A position they did add to in free agency was backup quarterback, as they signed Mike White away from the New York Jets. White should be a serviceable insurance policy if Tua was to miss games, which is certainly possible.

Whenever a player suffers multiple concussions in the same season, there is reason to worry -- especially when Tagovailoa went down in Week 16 and missed crucial games down the stretch and in the playoffs. With what we continue to learn about concussions, players and teams are being smarter about the risk factors.

This means that Tua's status is a bit more fragile than the status of most other signal-callers. If Tagovailoa takes a bad hit, it could take him a while to get back into a game -- if he's able to return at all. Tua himself has had concerns, saying he contemplated retirement in the offseason because of this issue.

If he does miss any time, White might be able to fill in effectively. He had flashes for the Jets in the last two seasons where he looked like the best quarterback on the roster. If they have to turn to Skylar Thompson, it's nice that Thompson got some games under his belt last season.

Perhaps the thing that is most working against the Dolphins is the division they play in. The Buffalo Bills and Jets are both projected to be better than them by the odds, and the New England Patriots still have a 7.5-win total.

It doesn't stop there in terms of the tough schedule. The AFC East teams play against the AFC West and NFC East, and those are two of the deepest divisions in football. Miami also has a second-place schedule, meaning games against the Ravens, Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers.

Overall, the Dolphins head into the season with second-toughest schedule by 2023 win totals.

In truth, a lot of Miami's forecast comes down to whether their quarterback can stay healthy. If Tua plays 17 games, the Dolphins definitely have a good chance of winning at least 10 games.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.