NFL Win Totals: Will the Vikings Take a Step Back in the Win Column?

The Minnesota Vikings ended the 2022 season with a 13-4 record, winning the NFC North and earning the 3 seed in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

After a change in defensive coordinator this offseason, Minnesota is looking to repeat as NFC North champions and challenge for a Super Bowl.

Will the Vikings surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Minnesota Vikings 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5

• Over: -142
• Under: +116

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +104
Odds to Win the NFC North: +270
Odds to Win the NFC: +1400
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +3500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Brian Flores in for Ed Donatell

Why Minnesota Could Win Over 8.5 Games

• The Defense Improves
• Jordan Addison Makes an Impact
• T.J. Hockenson Takes the Next Step
• Alexander Mattison is Ready

In 2022, the Vikings had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory. Their 13-4 record was supported by an 11-0 record in one-score games. Their offense scored the seventh-most points in the league (424). Despite that, they finished the season with a negative point differential (-3) and were eliminated in the Wild Card Round by the New York Giants.

Minnesota was the only team to win double-digit games last season and finish with a negative point differential. The Giants (-6 point differential), Miami Dolphins (-2 point differential), and Pittsburgh Steelers (-38 point differential) came close, all finishing with nine wins. The Vikings' Pythagorean win total (based on their point differential) was 8.4.

Thanks to their defense, Minnesota was an average team masquerading as an elite one, and the music stopped as soon as they got to the playoffs.

Oddly enough, despite allowing the fourth-most points per game (25.1), the Vikings' defense earned Pro Football Focus' fourth-highest overall grade (81.1), primarily supported by elite grades for run defense (85.4) and tackling (85.5). Their main issue was in the secondary, where they earned the 18th-highest mark (71.3). The Vikings' chances for success in 2023 start with getting more out of their defense.

To that end, they made a change at defensive coordinator this offseason, bringing in Brian Flores for Ed Donatell. They used their third-round draft pick on cornerback Mekhi Blackmon and signed cornerback Byron Murphy. They also added defensive end Marcus Davenport on a one-year, $13 million deal. The pieces are in place for a turnaround, and if it happens, the Vikings' path to nine wins becomes much easier.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota could be even better this season. Despite their issues on defense, they used their first-round draft pick on wide receiver Jordan Addison to replace Adam Thielen, who signed with the Carolina Panthers in free agency. Addison has the best odds (+230) to lead all rookies in receiving yards, according to the NFL receiving props at FanDuel Sportsbook. A former Biletnikoff Award winner, Addison provides Minnesota with another talented pass-catcher who can exploit the space created by the attention defenses are forced to pay to Justin Jefferson.

T.J. Hockenson took advantage of that situation last season following his trade from the Detroit Lions in Week 8. In the 10 games that followed, he caught 60 of 83 targets for 519 yards (8.7 yards per reception) and 3 touchdowns. In the playoffs, he caught 10 of 11 targets for 129 yards. After a full offseason, Hockenson could take another step forward in 2023 and join the game's elite. If he does, Minnesota will have one of the best pass-catching trios in the NFL in Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson.

The Vikings' run game will look different this season. After leading Minnesota in rushing yards for each of the past five seasons, Dalvin Cook is no longer with the Vikings. Minnesota felt comfortable letting Cook leave in free agency because they believe in Alexander Mattison. Mattison has been an effective component of the Vikings' backfield since 2019. Last year, he earned Pro Football Focus' 15th-highest rushing grade (minimum 65 attempts), and Minnesota signed him to a two-year, $7 million contract at the start of free agency.

The concern is that Mattison has never handled a large workload. Working alongside Cook, he has averaged 101.0 rushing attempts and 17.5 receptions per season. Behind Mattison on the depth chart, Minnesota has 2022 fifth-round draft pick Ty Chandler, 2023 seventh-round draft pick DeWayne McBride, and 2021 fourth-round draft pick Kene Nwangwu. If Mattison can't handle an increased workload, the Vikings' run game will be uncertain, to say the least. Mattison effectively stepping into the role left by Cook's departure would make Minnesota's path to winning nine games easier.

Why Minnesota Could Win Under 8.5 Games

• The Defense Doesn't Improve
• The NFC North Surprises
• A Difficult Schedule

The primary threat to Minnesota winning at least nine games is their defense. While the Vikings made several notable changes this offseason, if they fail to result in noticeable improvement, then the Vikings could be forced into multiple close games again in 2023. A 100% win percentage in one-score games is obviously not sustainable. The last time Minnesota was on the field, they were at home getting picked apart by Daniel Jones in his first career playoff appearance. That version of the Vikings' secondary, or something even remotely close to it, would make winning nine games a difficult task.

Despite winning 13 games and the NFC North last season, Minnesota's win total sits at just 8.5. They are not favorites to win their division: that honor belongs to the Detroit Lions. Last season's success, by all accounts, will be hard to repeat unless something changes. The offense is well positioned to improve, but it was already operating at a near-elite level.

Adding to the difficulty for the Vikings is an NFC North that has seen a significant influx of talent this offseason. The Lions finished last season with 8 wins in their final 10 games and added talent on both sides of the ball this offseason through the draft and free agency. If that momentum carries over to the start of this season, the Vikings will have a difficult time repeating as division champs.

The Green Bay Packers are starting a new era with Jordan Love under center. They have an extremely young and inexperienced wide receiver group, and Pro Football Focus assigned their defense a lower grade than Minnesota's in every primary category except coverage. Despite that, their odds of winning the division (+350) are closer to Minnesota's (+270) than Minnesota's odds are to Detroit's (+145). That comparison applies to those three teams' NFC Championship and Super Bowl odds as well. While Minnesota's focus is on holding off the Lions, the Packers could still be a threat.

The Chicago Bears have the worst odds to win the NFC North (+420), but those odds are the best of any team expected to finish last in their division. Chicago will enter 2023 with far more talent on their roster than they had in 2022, following the offseason additions of wide receiver D.J. Moore and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. If Justin Fields takes the next step in his third season, the Bears could make some noise.

Things don't get easier for Minnesota outside of their division. They have the 10th-hardest schedule this season via 2023 win totals. In the first seven weeks of the season, they face three of the top-four teams in Super Bowl Odds in the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers. Things get significantly easier after that, before a difficult four-week stretch to end the season that includes games against the Cincinnati Bengals and two clashes with the Lions.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.