NFL Win Totals: What's In Store for the Saints in 2023?

Over the 2022 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints went 7-10 to finish third in the NFC South. Ultimately missing out on the playoffs last year, Who Dat Nation is ready to return to their winning ways.

New Orleans' win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook. Six other teams have the same total in this market, including the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars--both of which the Saints will face in the upcoming campaign.

Of course, a new quarterback has arrived in the Crescent City: veteran Derek Carr. Having previously played for head coach Dennis Allen, Carr will try to mesh with longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and an impressive lineup of skill players in NOLA.

Last year, the defense was a strong suit for the Saints. Led NFL All-Pro Cam Jordan, New Orleans boasts decorated players in all three defensive levels.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

New Orleans Saints 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

Over: +120
Under: -148

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -164
Odds to Win the NFC South: +135
Odds to Win the NFC: +1700
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Joe Woods in for Ryan Nielsen

Why New Orleans Could Win Over 9.5 Games:

• The NFL's Worst Division
• Upgrade at Quarterback
• A Thoroughly Good Defense

According to Pro Football Focus, the NFC South is the worst division in the league. Along with Falcons, the Saints are bunched up with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers; there is a clear lack of quarterbacking continuity all throughout. Atlanta and Tampa both seem to have below-average defenses. As highlighted above, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Saints as a +135 favorite to win the NFC South.

Outside of their own, the Saints drew the AFC South and NFC North in 2023; PFF has those as the next worst divisions in the NFL. The most competitive games for New Orleans from those groupings will be Week 7 versus the Jacksonville Jaguars and Week 10 at the Minnesota Vikings. That leaves the New England Patriots and New York Giants as New Orleans' remaining opponents in the coming year.

I think we can all point to 10 potentially winnable games for the Saints -- especially since they have upgraded at signal caller. The Drew Brees era is long gone, and between several different starters in 2022, New Orleans managed only 19.4 points per game. It will be Carr's priority to inflate that figure closer to what the folks in Louisiana are used to.

Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is still in town as the one key member from the lone Saints' Super Bowl run. His unit has taken a dive in recent years, but New Orleans showcased a top-10 scoring offense under Carmichael in all seasons from 2008 to 2020 except one. Considering Carr has playmakers like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Jamaal Williams and Swiss-army knife Taysom Hill to work with, the offense could approach elite levels.

On defense, the Saints are returning a dynamic group. In all 2022 contests, New Orleans surrendered an average of only 20.3 points to opponents; that was the ninth-best mark in the NFL. We mentioned Jordan being the leader on the defensive side, but safety Tyrann Mathieu provides a veteran presence as well. Top-tier athletes Marshon Lattimore and DeMario Davis add to a scrappy bunch. It's worth mentioning that New Orleans was tied for the third-least passing touchdowns allowed (17) last year.

Why New Orleans Could Win Under 9.5 Games:

• Road Woes
• Lack of an Efficient Ground Game
• Can't Create More Turnovers

Transparently, it was rather difficult for me to find many legitimate reasons why the Saints might fall short of double-digit wins in 2023. Regardless, anyone is capable of a collapse in this league -- just ask last season's Denver Broncos.

Playing in Mercedes-Benz Superdome at the mouth of the Mississippi River certainly has its advantages, but the Saints were 3-5 away from their building in 2022. If they hope to reach 10 wins through the upcoming campaign, they'll need to grab road victories outside of the division. Leaving cities like Green Bay (Week 3) and Foxborough (Week 5) with a "W" early in 2023 will go a long way toward cashing the market over (+120).

As noted, there are plenty of players to feed on offense in New Orleans, but the unit would do well to employ more balance when playcalling this season. In 2022, the Saints averaged a pedestrian 4.3 yards per carry and rushed for just 12 touchdowns; the latter figure was the sixth-fewest in the NFL.

New Orleans could also benefit greatly from causing more turnovers on defense. Despite showcasing an experienced secondary, the Saints collected just seven interceptions as a team last season -- the Giants and Las Vegas Raiders were the only sides that recorded less. Also, New Orleans recovered seven fumbles in 2022, which is another stat that lands them in the league's bottom 10.

Truly, over 9.5 wins for the Saints at plus-money feels like the better bet. Given their roster upgrades and relative competition, New Orleans could get hot this year. Keep in mind, they are +1700 to win the NFC using FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL conference odds, and they're +4000 to win their second Lombardi Trophy in team history.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.