NFL Win Totals: The Ravens Can Win the AFC

The Baltimore Ravens ended the 2022 season with a 10-7 record, finishing second in the AFC North and earning the sixth seed in the AFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 10.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With Todd Monken at offensive coordinator, Baltimore is looking to take the next step and contend for an AFC Championship.

Will the Ravens surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Baltimore Ravens 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 10.5

• Over: -102
• Under: -120

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -150
Odds to Win the AFC North: +250
Odds to Win the AFC: +1000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1800

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken in for Greg Roman

Why Baltimore Could Win Over 10.5 Games

• Todd Monken's Offense Delivers
• Lamar Jackson Stays Healthy
• New Wide Receivers Make an Impact
• The Defense Remains Elite

The Ravens will enter the 2023 season with a new offensive coordinator for the first time since 2019 after bringing in Todd Monken for Greg Roman. Outside of his rookie year, Lamar Jackson has always operated within Roman's run-heavy system. Monken is expected to change things and bring a more pass-heavy approach to Baltimore. It will be a significant change for Jackson and the Ravens and will mark the beginning of a new era following Jackson's decision to sign a five-year $260 million contract extension this offseason.

How the Ravens' new-look offense performs will have a large impact on their ability to win at least 11 games. Change may have been necessary for the Ravens to take the next step and challenge for a Super Bowl, but there is certainly risk involved in changing an offense that has a combined record of 40-17 with Jackson under center since 2019. The Ravens' path to 11 wins starts with a successful installation of Monken's offense.

Assuming that happens, the next step is for Jackson to stay healthy. He started his career with at least 15 games played in three consecutive seasons but has struggled with injuries since, playing in just 12 games across 2021 and 2022. If Jackson misses time again this season, Baltimore's margin for error in reaching at least 11 wins becomes very small. Over the past four seasons, the Ravens have reached at least 11 wins in the two seasons Jackson was healthy and failed to reach that mark in the two seasons he missed time.

If Jackson stays healthy and is operating at a high level in Monken's offense, Baltimore's wide receivers will need to support him. Outside of tight end Mark Andrews, who has been a reliable primary target for years, the Ravens' pass-catching group has been inconsistent during Jackson's time in Baltimore. This offseason Baltimore signed Odell Beckham and used their first-round draft pick on wide receiver Zay Flowers. That duo will join Rashod Bateman, who is recovering from foot surgery, to form the core of the Ravens' wide receiver group this season.

Beckham has produced at an elite level in the past but has battled injuries and hasn't played a full season since 2019. Flowers has incredible potential, but there is always some level of uncertainty around rookies as they adjust to the speed of the NFL. Bateman, a first-round draft pick in 2021, has shown flashes of potential but has struggled to stay healthy, missing 16 games in his first two seasons. There are upside and downside scenarios for each member of this trio and how their seasons pan out, both from an availability and production standpoint, will have a tremendous impact on the Ravens' path to winning at least 11 games.

The great news for the Ravens is that they are expected to have an elite defense to support them while their new offense gains experience. Last season Baltimore's defense allowed the third-fewest points (315) in the league. This offseason they added Rock Ya-Sin and Trayvon Mullenwith Marcus Peters and Justin Houston becoming free agents. They will also benefit from David Ojabo's return. Ojabo, who was selected in the second round of last year's draft, only played 21 defensive snaps for the Ravens at the end of last season after tearing his Achilles during his pro day. Defense should remain a strength for Baltimore this season.

Why Baltimore Could Win Under 10.5 Games

• Todd Monken's Offense Underwhelms
• Offseason Additions Don't Work Out
• The AFC North Improves

While the upside of a new offense provides exciting potential for Baltimore, there is the possibility that it underwhelms. During his MVP-winning season in 2019, Jackson earned a Pro Football Focus passing grade of 85.3. Since then, he has posted passing grades of 76.9, 65.9, and 72.3. In Monken's offense, Jackson's passing will be front and center. If he underwhelms, it could be a rocky start to a new era.

The downside scenarios for Baltimore's pass catchers could also factor in. If Bateman and/or Beckham struggle to stay on the field, more responsibility will fall on Flowers in his rookie season. That could end up okay, but the ceiling outcomes for this season require this pass-catching group to be firing on all cylinders. Anything less and the margin for error becomes much smaller on the path to 11 wins. A combination of Jackson operating in a new offense for the first time since his MVP season and a wide receiver group that can't stay on the field has the potential to produce disappointing results.

Adding to the difficulty for Baltimore is the potential for the AFC North to be much improved this season. The Cincinnati Bengals remain elite, they are the favorites to win the AFC North (+130) and have the third-best odds to win the AFC (+500). Their defense allowed the fifth-fewest points (322) last season. The Cleveland Browns could improve with better play from Deshaun Watson, who will enter the 2023 with a full offseason and preseason of preparation. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be hoping for similar improvements from Kenny Pickett entering his sophomore season. The Steelers' defense allowed the tenth-fewest points (346) last season, and any improvement from their offense has the potential to drastically improve their outlook this season.

The Bengals and Steelers' defense being a strong point further increases the pressure on the Ravens' offense to perform. Within the first five weeks of the season, they will face each team in the AFC North on the road, Cincinnati in Week 2, Cleveland in Week 4, and Pittsburgh in Week 5. A slow start for Baltimore's offense will make these contests more challenging and make their road to winning 11 games extremely difficult.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.