NFL Win Totals: The Raiders Enter a New Chapter

The Las Vegas Raiders went 6-11 last year while losing nine different games by a single score. Despite going 3-3 against divisional opponents, Vegas finished third in the AFC West and missed out on postseason play.

The Raiders' win total for 2023 is set at 6.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notably, Raider Nation will begin the year without Derek Carr for the first time since 2013. Head coach Josh McDaniels has elected to go with veteran and fellow former New Englander Jimmy Garoppolo. If Garoppolo can pass a physical prior to the season, he'll have extremely solid foundations on offense in Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5

• Over: -118
• Under: -104

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +430
Odds to Win the AFC West: +1200
Odds to Win the AFC: +4500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +6000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Las Vegas Could Win Over 6.5 Games:

• Low Bar
• Elite Offensive Skill Group
• Tendency to Play Close Games

Immediately, the Raiders stand out in the win total market because they reflect one of the lowest numbers on the board at FanDuel Sportsbook. At 6.5 wins (-118 to the over), Las Vegas shows the same total as the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts -- the latter of which the Raiders will face (Week 17) in 2023.

Even as a member of the high-flying AFC West, Vegas has a very real chance to win seven or more contests over the upcoming campaign. As we saw in 2022, the Silver and Black showcase talent at several positions groups -- but especially in the receiver and running back rooms. Led by 2022 First-team All-Pros Adams and Jacobs, the Raiders are deep on offense.

Wideouts Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers will be the No. 2 and 3 passing game options. Additionally, bruising tight end Michael Mayer from Notre Dame was acquired by Raider Nation in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The backfield also has youth with physical runners Zamir White and Brittain Brown.

As noted in the introduction, the Raiders played competitively nearly every week of 2022 despite losing 11 contests. Other than blowouts against the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints, all of Vegas' losses last season were by just one score (or less than eight points).

In several of those instances, the Raider offense or defense had an opportunity to secure the victory. Without meltdowns against the Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas could have easily been 10-7 in 2022.

Why Las Vegas Could Win Under 6.5 Games:

• Competitive Division
• Locker Room Discontinuity
• Jimmy G's Health

Given the current state of the reigning champion Chiefs -- led by Patrick Mahomes -- along with the Los Angeles Chargers, the AFC West is the second-best division in the NFL this year, according to Pro Football Focus. Even the Denver Broncos look to be improved in 2023 -- especially after hiring offensive guru Sean Payton as head coach to correct their biggest flaw. Be that as it may, the Raiders have not lost to Denver in three consecutive seasons to date.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL divisional odds, the Raiders are currently the longest shot (+1200) to win the AFC West.

Outside of their own grouping, Las Vegas is slated to play the AFC East and NFC North in the upcoming season. For Raider Nation, that means tough competition visiting the Buffalo Bills (Week 2) and Miami Dolphins (Week 11) while also hosting the New York Jets (Week 10) and Minnesota Vikings (Week 14) in Sin City.

The pressure seems to be building for McDaniels -- and understandably so. Despite having high accolades as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, he has yet to translate that into head coaching success. His other tenure as the top man was with Denver, which was a noted disaster.

Fast forward to now and Josh Mac has elected to move on from the Raiders' leading passer in franchise history. There are still several key holdovers from last season -- such as Adams, Jacobs, Maxx Crosby, and Divine Deablo -- but without Carr, how does this locker room mesh together?

In the worst possible scenario for the Silver and Black, Garoppolo fails his physical prior to the season, effectively nullifying his recent contract with the Raiders. I understand that Garoppolo does not have tools like a Josh Allen, but Jimmy G is absolutely serviceable. He throws the intermediate ball well, keeps the offense on schedule, can operate in complex systems, and -- perhaps most importantly -- knows what McDaniels is looking for.

If Jimmy G can't go or sustains another injury, journeyman Brian Hoyer, Chase Garbers, and rookie Aidan O'Connell would be next up at signal caller in "Fabulous" Las Vegas. That would be the worst quarterback situation in the league by a mile.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.