NFL Win Totals: The Giants Can Return to the Playoffs

The New York Giants ended the 2022 season with a 9-7 record, finishing third in the NFC East and earning the sixth seed in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 7.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Entering their second season under head coach Brian Daboll, New York is looking to take the next step and contend for the NFC East.

Will the Giants surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Giants 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5

• Over: -106
• Under: -114

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +184
Odds to Win the NFC East: +750
Odds to Win the NFC: +2200
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why New York Could Win Over 7.5 Games

• Daniel Jones Takes the Next Step
• Darren Waller Delivers and a Wide Receiver Emerges
• Saquon Barkley Is on the Roster
• The Defense Improves

After a career season that included the Giants' first playoff win since 2011, Daniel Jones signed a four-year $160 million contract extension in March. One year after declining Jones' fifth-year option, the Giants agreed to make him one of the top-11 paid quarterbacks in the league. Jones showed drastic improvement in his first season under head coach Brian Daboll, setting career-best numbers in passing yards (3,205), rushing yards (708), rushing touchdowns (7), and interceptions (5). His emergence as a true dual-threat quarterback paved the way for the Giants' first winning season since 2016.

Following his extension, Jones will be expected to take another step. While his rushing production was excellent, Jones ranked 20th in Pro Football Focus' passing grade (70.0) last season. That's just above Mac Jones (68.7) and Dak Prescott (68.2), but below Kenny Pickett (73.0) and Ryan Tannehill (71.9) -- and well below his division rival Jalen Hurts (83.8). This season, the Giants will face the 11th-most difficult schedule, according to 2023 win totals. For them to overcome their difficult slate of opponents, Jones will need to continue to improve as a passer.

Part of Jones' lack of production as a passer last season was due to a lack of weapons. To address that, the Giants traded for tight end Darren Waller this offseason. At his best, Waller is one of the top pass-catching options in the league. The concern is the last time he was at his best was the 2020 season, when he caught 107 passes on 145 targets for 1,196 yards (11.1 yards per reception), and 9 touchdowns. In the two seasons since, he has missed 14 games, and combined for 83 receptions on 136 targets for 1,053 yards (12.7 yards per reception), and 5 touchdowns. For Jones to take the next step, the Giants need Waller to play up to his potential.

Outside of Waller, the Giants' chance at winning at least eight games would benefit greatly from a wide receiver stepping up. They will enter the season with Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, Wan'Dale Robinson, Isaiah Hodgins, and rookie third-round draft pick Jalin Hyatt making up the core of their wide receiver group. One or more of this group developing into a consistent option in the passing game would be extremely helpful to Jones, who has dealt with inconsistent play at the wide receiver position for most of his career.

Next up for the Giants is making sure Saquon Barkley is on their roster this season. In early March, the Giants placed the franchise tag on Barkley, worth $10.1 million, and the two sides have until July 17th to come to an agreement on a long-term deal. Barkley has considered sitting out the 2023 season if a deal isn't reached. There is still time for a deal to get done, but if Barkley ultimately does end up sitting out this season, it makes the Giants' path to winning at least eight games more difficult. Behind Barkley on the depth chart is Matt Breida and rookie fifth-round selection Eric Gray.

Finally, the Giants' path to winning eight games relies on their defense improving. Last year, the Giants' defense finished 17th in points allowed (371). That's not a terrible result, but every other team in the NFC East finished inside the top eight. The Giants' defense ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus' defense grades (41.6). The Philadelphia Eagles ranked first (85.8) with the Dallas Cowboys (75.1) and Washington Commanders (74.2) ranking 12th and 13th, respectively. In addition to facing the Eagles and Cowboys twice, the Giants will also have to deal with the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and Seattle Seahawks. An improved defense is crucial to the Giants' path to winning eight games -- regardless of any further improvements on offense.

Why New York Could Win Under 7.5 Games

• Daniel Jones Regresses
• A Lack of Weapons on Offense
• The NFC East

Jones finally broke through in his fourth season in the NFL. The switch to Brian Daboll as head coach appears to have turned things around and the assumption is that he will continue to progress moving forward. While that is possible, there are also outcomes where Jones' 2022 season ends up being an outlier in a career that has otherwise been hurt by issues with turnovers. Jones' 3-to-1 touchdown to interceptions ratio last season was the best of his career. If Jones' play remains the same in 2023, the Giants could still win eight games and return to the playoffs, although it will be a difficult task. If Jones' play regresses, the Giants could be in for a long season.

There are also outcomes where Jones continues to improve but is still limited by the Giants' pass-catchers. New York is counting on Waller being available and producing like he did in 2020. If Waller, who turns 31 on September 13th, continues to miss games, the Giants could find themselves in a similar situation to last year.

New York has multiple options at wide receiver, but they have all battled injuries during their time on the Giants and struggled to stay on the field. Jalin Hyatt won the Biletnikoff Award in 2022 and could be the future of the Giants' wide receiver group, but he may need time to adjust to the NFL. Add in the potential for Barkley to sit out due to his contract situation, and things look even more uncertain. If the Giants can't surround Jones with reliable options in the passing game, the path to eight wins becomes difficult regardless of if Jones improves or not.

Finally, the largest obstacle to the Giants' winning eight games is their division. The Giants have to play six games against teams ranked inside the top six in Super Bowl odds, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Four of those games are their divisional clashes with the Eagles and Cowboys. The NFC East is the only division to feature two teams ranked inside the top six in Super Bowl odds.

On the other end of the division is the Washington Commanders. Washington's win total is set at 6.5, but there are some reasons for optimism. After posting an 8-8-1 record last season, the Commanders could see improved quarterback play if Sam Howell delivers. Any improvement at all from Washington would make things even more difficult for the Giants.

In a season where New York feels like they are ready to take the next step and build on last year's playoff win, there are plenty of potential pitfalls and obstacles that could stop them from doing so and keep them under 7.5 wins.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.