NFL Win Totals: The Colts Are a Bit of a Wild Card

The Indianapolis Colts ended 2022 with a 4-12-1 record and finished in third place in the AFC South.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 6.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Indianapolis drafted their quarterback of the future in Anthony Richardson and finally has a clear direction despite some underlying question marks.

Will the Colts surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Indianapolis Colts 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5

• Over: -128
• Under: +104

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +350

Odds to Win the AFC North: +500

Odds to Win the AFC: +6500

Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +10000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Head Coach: Shane Steichen in for Frank Reich/Jeff Saturday
• Offensive Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter in for Marcus Brady

Why Indianapolis Could Win Over 6.5 Games

• Steichen Unlocks the Offense
• Anthony Richardson Is NFL Ready
• JT Returns to Form
• The Front Seven Dominates

Last year was nothing short of a disaster for Indianapolis. Nagging injuries to their two biggest playmakers on offense and defense did little to help their cause, and the Colts ended up firing Frank Reich after nine games and finished the season on a seven-game skid.

That may have been a blessing in disguise, however, as the four-win season forced Indy to completely hit the reset button.

Head coach was the first domino to fall when the Colts named former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shaine Steichen head coach. Steichen commandeered one of the league's best offenses in 2022, notably ranking:

• Third in scoring (28.1 PPG)
• Third in total offense (389.1 YPG)
• Fifth in rushing (147.6 YPG)
• Ninth in passing (241.5 YPG)

Steichen will operate as Indianapolis' play-caller in 2023 -- something sure to generate more explosive plays. Last year, the Eagles had the fourth-most rushing plays of 10-plus yards and the third-most passing plays of 20-plus yards.

He'll have some fun toys to play with in Indianapolis.

The Colts' used the No. 4 overall pick on Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson is a project and may not be ready to start the season, but he possesses a combination of size, speed, and arm talent few in the league can match.

While the hope is Richardson pans out as a rookie, Indianapolis bought themselves insurance via Gardner Minshew. Minshew is an established backup quarterback who is more than capable of holding down the fort.

Regardless of who's under center, expect the Colts to feature Jonathan Taylor early and often. Taylor appeared in just 11 games last season and saw his yards per carry drop to 4.5. However, he's just a year removed from leading the NFL in rushing (1,811 yards) and touchdowns (18) in 2021.

While there are questions about their receiving core, both Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce have shown flashes and carry strong draft pedigree. The additions of Isaiah McKenzie and rookie Josh Downs give the Colts a real threat out of the slot.

The Colts should be sound defensively, ranking as the 13th overall defense, according to numberFire. Their front seven is incredibly solid and is led by defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, PFF's 67th overall player in 2022.

A healthy season from Shaquille Leonard could elevate the Colts to elite status considering he's only a year removed from being considered a top-20 player in the league.

The Colts project to have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, per 2023 win totals. With two meetings with the Houston Texans and three home games over the final four weeks, the Colts could struggle out of the gates and still hit their over with a strong second half.

Why Indianapolis Could Win Under 6.5 Games

• Richardson Is a Project
• The Secondary Gets Torched
• The AFC South Improves
• Caleb Williams Catches Steichan's Eye

Despite how much fun the Colts could be in a few years, they're incredibly young and inexperienced. Steichen -- who is a first-year head coach -- will be able to do only so much with a team numberFire ranks as the 30th-best in the league.

Even with Indy spending a first-round pick on Richardson, there is no guarantee he'll be ready for Week 1. If he is, the Colts are getting an inexperienced starter who completed just 53.8% of his passes in college.

If he isn't, the Colts will start Minshew, a quarterback who PFF ranked 25th overall out of 35 quarterbacks in 2020 -- his last year as a starter. Either way, the Colts don't exactly have Payton Manning taking snaps.

It would help if they had elite weapons on the outside, but none of Pittman, Pierce, nor McKenzie put fear in the defense. PFF slots the Colts in as the 26th-best receiving core.

In theory, Taylor should take some pressure off the passing attack. However, he was banged up for the entirety of 2022 and is entering the final year of his rookie contract with no extension in sight.

Defensively, the Colts will likely struggle to stop the pass. They allowed the second-highest completion percentage (67.9%) in the league last year while ranking in the bottom half in yards per attempt (6.6). Replacing Stephon Gilmore with a slew of rookies won't help.

Perhaps the biggest barrier to Indy winning seven-plus games is the prospect of a better-than-expected AFC South. The Jaguars took a leap last year and show no signs of slowing down. As for the Titans and Texans, neither team looks frightening on paper. However, they, too, should improve, and the Colts went 0-3-1 against them last year anyway.

Lastly, if Richardson looks out of place, don't put it past Indy to tank down the stretch. Caleb Williams is an elite-level talent and likely would've been the first player off the board if he was eligible this past draft. It wouldn't be the first time a team gave up on a first-round pick in pursuit of a Heisman winner (sorry, Josh Rosen).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.