NFL Win Totals: The Chargers Are Looking to Take a Step Forward in 2023

The Los Angeles Chargers ended the 2022 season with a 10-7 record, finishing second in the AFC West and earning the fifth seed in the AFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

After hiring a new offensive and defensive coordinator this offseason, Los Angeles is looking to take the next step and contend for an AFC Championship.

Will the Chargers surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

• Over: -128
• Under: +104

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -115
Odds to Win the AFC West: +300
Odds to Win the AFC: +1300
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore in for Joe Lombardi
• Defensive Coordinator: Derrick Ansley in for Renaldo Hill

Why Los Angeles Could Win Over 9.5 Games

• The Offense Ascends Under Kellen Moore
• Keenan Allen and Mike Williams Stay Healthy
• The Defense Finally Stays Healthy
• The Broncos' Struggles Continue

The most impactful change the Chargers made this offseason was bringing in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore for Joe Lombardi. Moore was hired almost immediately after he was let go by the Dallas Cowboys. Moore's focus on an explosive passing game may not have been a good fit for Mike McCarthy's vision for Dallas, but it's exactly what the Chargers were looking for after Justin Herbert posted the lowest yards per attempt (6.8) of his career in 2022.

The Chargers offense wasn't bad last season; they scored the 13th-most points (391) in the league, but given the talent on their roster, there is room for significant improvement. The hope is that Moore can help the offense take the next step and join the league's elite. Under Moore last season, the Cowboys scored the third-most points in the league (467). A similar result for Los Angeles this season would likely put them on a path to winning at least ten games. It could also result in an MVP season for Herbert, who has the fourth-best odds (+900) to win the award, according to the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For that to happen, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will need to stay healthy. Allen is 31 years old and entering his 11th NFL season. After playing at least 13 games for the past five seasons, Allen missed 7 games in 2022. Williams is 28 years old and entering his seventh season. He played in 13 games last season but has battled injuries throughout his career. The Chargers selected wide receiver Quentin Johnston with the 21st overall pick in this year's draft. Johnston provides Los Angeles with depth at the position, but for this offense to reach its highest potential, the Chargers will need all three healthy and contributing. If Allen and Williams can stay on the field, the Chargers' path to winning ten games becomes much easier.

In addition to the availability of Allen and Williams, the Chargers also need their key players on defense to stay healthy. The Chargers have a long, unfortunate history of star defensive players missing significant time through injury. In 2022 it was Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson, who both missed 12 games. With that duo missing significant time, Los Angeles' defense surrendered the 12th-most points (384) in the league last season. When healthy, the combination of Bosa, Jackson, Derwin James, and Khalil Mack is capable of spearheading an elite defense.

Finally, the Chargers would greatly benefit if the Denver Broncos' struggles continued. Heading into last season, the AFC West was viewed as one of the most difficult divisions in the NFL. That didn't pan out. Even with the addition of Davante Adams, the Las Vegas Raiders struggled, ultimately benching Derek Carr at the end of the season and finishing with a 6-11 record. The Broncos' dismal 2022 season has been well documented. After a 4-11 start, first year head coach Nathaniel Hackett was fired. Following his trade from the Seattle Seahawks, Russell Wilson had the worst year of his career.

In 2023, with Carr now on the New Orleans Saints and new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo coming off offseason foot surgery, optimism is low in Las Vegas. In Denver, there are reasons to believe things could get better. Sean Payton was hired to turn things around, and Wilson should improve in his second full season with the Broncos. If Denver does improve, it makes things more difficult for Los Angeles, who already have to deal with facing the Kansas City Chiefs twice. If Denver's struggles continue, it provides the Chargers with two easier contests and makes their path to at least ten wins easier.

Why Los Angeles Could Win Under 9.5 Games

• A Difficult Schedule
• Stars on Both Sides of the Ball Miss Time
• The New Offense Underwhelms

As it stands, the Chargers will enter the season with the sixth-most difficult schedule in the league, per 2023 win totals. Facing the Chiefs twice is always a difficult task, but the Chargers also face a loaded slate of non-divisional opponents. Their opponents include the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills.

Seven of Los Angeles games come against opponents ranked inside the top nine in Super Bowl odds, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. If the Broncos improve, it adds two more difficult games to an already very tough schedule.

If the Chargers' stars do continue to miss time, it will make reaching at least ten wins with this schedule a very difficult task. The addition of Quentin Johnston provides some cover if Allen or Williams sustain an injury, but similar depth isn't available at running back and linebacker.

Injuries play a huge role in every team's season, but it seems like a problem that the Chargers just can't seem to shake. A difficult slate of opponents means the Chargers will likely find themselves in several close games this season. When they do, if their best players aren't healthy and contributing, they could end up on the losing end of those contests.

Finally, while the addition of Moore appears to be an excellent match for the Chargers, there is always a learning curve that comes with playing in a new offense. Moore will be the third different offensive coordinator Herbert has worked with since being drafted in 2020. 2022 was the first (and only) time Herbert entered a season running the same offense as the one he did the season before.

Facing a difficult schedule, Herbert and the offense will need to hit the ground running in 2023. The first four weeks of the season include clashes with the Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Vikings, and Las Vegas Raiders, followed by a bye in Week 5. Coming out of the bye the Chargers face the Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets, and Lions in four of their next five games. If the offense isn't running on all cylinders by then, that becomes a very difficult stretch of opponents.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.