NFL Win Totals: The Broncos Can Bounce Back

The Denver Broncos ended the 2022 season with a 5-12 record, finishing fourth in the AFC West and 14th in the AFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

After hiring Sean Payton to be their head coach this offseason, Denver is looking to bounce back and earn a playoff spot.

Will the Broncos surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5

• Over: +106
• Under: -132

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +184
Odds to Win the AFC West: +550
Odds to Win the AFC: +3000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +4500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Head Coach: Sean Payton in for Nathaniel Hackett
• Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi in for Justin Outten
• Defensive Coordinator: Vance Joseph in for Ejiro Evero

Why Denver Could Win Over 8.5 Games

• Russell Wilson Bounces Back
• Wide Receivers Stay Healthy
• Javonte Williams Makes a Full Recovery
• The Defense Continues to Deliver

Following a dysfunctional and disappointing 2022 season, the Broncos will enter 2023 with an entirely new coaching staff. However, the Broncos' turnaround starts with the individual that did not get replaced, quarterback Russell Wilson. Payton, Lombardi, and Joseph will all have a large impact on how Denver's season unfolds, but if the Broncos are going to win at least nine games, it starts with Wilson recapturing the form that saw him make nine Pro Bowls in his ten seasons in Seattle.

2022 was the worst season of Wilson's career. He completed 292 of 483 pass attempts (60.5%) for 3,524 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. His 16 touchdowns and 60.5% completion percentage were career lows, while his 7.3 yards per attempt was the second lowest of his career. Very little went right.

The good news for Wilson and the Broncos is recent elite quarterbacks changing teams have historically improved in their second seasons. Tom Brady's first season in Tampa Bay was a success, but his second season was slightly better statistically with a higher completion percentage and yards per game, and a lower interception percentage. Peyton Manning also produced in his first season in Denver, but his second season resulted in an MVP-winning campaign that included 18 more touchdowns, 1 less interception, and 51.1 more passing yards per game.

The difficulty for Wilson is that he will be operating with a different coaching staff in his second season. So, while he has familiarity with certain aspects heading into his second year, he won't benefit as much from continuity.

Regardless of if Wilson improves or not, Denver will greatly benefit from a healthy wide receiver group. When available, the trio of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick is an impactful one. Patrick missed all of last season with an ACL tear while Jeudy has missed nine games over the past two seasons. Sutton missed all but the first game of the 2020 season but has only missed one game since. For the Broncos to bounce back, they need this group to be available.

They would also benefit from running back Javonte Williams making a full recovery from last year's season-ending knee injury. Williams was on track to be Denver's feature back before his injury. Through three weeks, he was averaging 12.3 carries and 7.0 targets per game, including an 11-reception game against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. If Williams is unavailable -- or unable to recapture his former level of production -- the Broncos will have to turn to Samaje Perine and Tony Jones Jr.. Williams providing an elite option for the Broncos' run game would be a boost for their chances of winning at least nine games.

Finally, the Broncos need their defense to continue to play at a high level. The majority of Denver's dysfunction last season was on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense ranked seventh in Pro Football Focus' overall grades (75.8), supported by an elite coverage unit that ranked second. The Broncos lost defensive end Dre'Mont Jones in free agency but replaced him with Zach Allen. All the pieces remain in place for another successful season. If Denver's defense can maintain their production from last season, it makes their path to nine wins much easier.

Why Denver Could Win Under 8.5 Games

• Russell Wilson's Play Plateaus
• The AFC West
• A Difficult Schedule

Even with an elite defense last season, the Broncos only managed to win five games because of the ineffective play of their offense. Denver is hoping that the change in coaching staff turns things around and enables Russell Wilson, behind an improved offensive line, to play at an elite level again. That is possible, but Wilson's level of play declined in his final season in Seattle, and he will enter 2023 coming off back-to-back subpar seasons for the first time in his career.

After posting the sixth-highest Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2020 (88.6), Wilson's grade dropped to 22nd in 2021 (70.7) and 35th in 2022 (64.5). Those two grades were the lowest of his 11-season career and his lowest since his 2014 season. Wilson could rebound, and these two seasons will be viewed as a minor setback in an otherwise excellent career. Or, the trend could continue, and Wilson will never provide the Broncos with the level of play they were hoping for when they traded for him in 2022.

If Wilson's play doesn't improve, it will make Denver's path to winning nine games extremely difficult. It's hard to imagine things won't at least be slightly better than last season, but Denver's division and schedule require a larger improvement if they are going to challenge for a playoff spot.

The main obstacle in Denver's path is the AFC West. Facing the Kansas City Chiefs twice is difficult enough, but the Los Angeles Chargers could also be improved after a change in offensive coordinator this offseason. Even if the Broncos' offense rebounds, these four games will be extremely difficult. If things don't improve in Denver, their clashes with the Las Vegas Raiders could be close, as well.

Things don't get much better for Denver outside of their division. They will face the eight-hardest schedule via 2023 win totals this season, which includes games against the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions.

To make matters worse, one of the easier stretches of Denver's schedule comes at the start of the season when they will face the Raiders, Washington Commanders, and Chicago Bears in three of their first four games. If the Broncos' offense starts slow, they could fail to capitalize on those games and put themselves in an early hole.

They follow that up with a brutal stretch of opponents from Week 5 to Week 11 that includes the Jets, Chiefs (twice), Bills, and Vikings, as well as their bye and a clash with the Green Bay Packers. A hot start to the season is incredibly important for Denver's chances of winning at least nine games. That's a tough task for a team with an entirely new coaching staff banking on a drastic improvement from their offense.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.