NFL Win Totals: Can the Titans Win at Least Eight Games?

The Tennessee Titans ended the 2022 season with a 7-10 record, finishing in second place in the AFC South.

The Titans were in pole position to win the AFC South until a late-season injury bug was too much to overcome.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 7.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Will the Titans surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tennessee Titans 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 7.5

• Over: +104
• Under: -128

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +245
Odds to Win the AFC South : +380
Odds to Win the AFC: +5500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +7500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly in for Todd Downing

Why Tennessee Could Win Over 7.5 Games:

• Better Injury Luck
• Good Coaching
• Soft Schedule
  

The Titans looked like they were going to win the AFC South after they started off the season 7-3. They felt like a similar squad to their 2021 team, a group that had the best record in the AFC despite not being all that impressive.

Tennessee won all of those seven games against non-playoff teams, but perhaps their most memorable performance came in a losing effort on Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. This game was sort of a blueprint of their season. They limited the Chiefs as much as possible through the air and completely shut them down on the ground. On offense, the Titans had trouble passing and relied on Derrick Henry to move the ball.

Because of injury, Malik Willis started that game and was able to complete only five passes. He's an intriguing talent but didn't seem ready to be starting in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill didn't have a great season by any means, but he gave the team the best chance to win when healthy. He went 6-6 as a starter, while the team was 1-4 when he didn't play.

Tannehill wasn't the only key player injured for Tennessee. They saw a big part of their pass rush take a hit with Harold Landry missing the entire season with a torn ACL. Several other defensive players ended the year on injured reserve, including Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley. Promising rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks was able to play just 10 games, which hurt the passing attack as he was their most dynamic wideout.

The team was still able to win seven games and nearly make the playoffs through Mike Vrabel. Vrabel was the Coach of the Year in 2021 and hadn't had a losing season until 2022. He did all that without an elite quarterback.

Vrabel has a defensive background and did his best to set the defense up for success. They had the third-best run defense in the league, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The pass defense suffered from injuries and wasn't as stout, allowing the sixth-highest net yards per pass attempt (6.6). But Vrabel did his best to employ a bend-but-don't-break strategy. This was evident in said game against the Chiefs, when the Titans allowed 446 yards in the air but only 20 points.

Tennessee's ceiling may be a bit capped with their current roster, but they could have a solid floor. This has a lot to do with the AFC South being one of the weaker divisions in football.

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans each have lower win totals than the Titans do. They will both likely be starting rookie passers and have new head coaches, which makes their range of outcomes pretty wide.

The Titans also have a fairly easy out-of-division schedule, as they will face the NFC South -- likely the weakest division in the NFC -- and also the AFC North. Overall, their schedule was ranked as just the 20th-toughest based on 2023 win totals.

The schedule gives the Titans a chance to do what they like to do most: give the ball to Henry and watch him work.

Why Tennessee Might Not Win Over 7.5 Games:

• Passing Game Could Be a Weakness
• Pass Defense Doesn't Improve
• Offensive Line Issues

The Titans' passing offense did not spark a lot of joy last season. Even when Tannehill was in the lineup, they were still below average. The aerial attack has never been a strength of recent Tennessee teams -- even when they were the AFC's top seed in 2021 -- but prior to last year, they had an elite talent in A.J. Brown to help make big plays when they needed them.

Tennessee has no such weapon as of now. While Burks has the potential to be a good wideout and Chigoziem Okonkwo flashed as a rookie tight end, the Titans' weapons are mostly uninspiring after those two. Burks led all Tennessee pass-catchers in receiving yards per game despite amassing just 40.4 yards per contest.

The Titans' pass defense did enough to keep the team in games against the Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals, but overall, it did not grade out well, sitting 27th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

They really struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, ranking ninth-worst in adjusted-sack rate. This should improve with Landry returning, but he is coming off of a torn ACL, and the team didn't do much to add to this unit.

Another area where the team may struggle again this season is on the offensive line. They allowed an adjusted-sack rate of 9.5% a year ago. That was the fourth-worst in the NFL. PFF ranked this group as the worst front five in the NFL.

They struggled to cope with the loss of Taylor Lewan, who went down in Week 2. Lewan also left the team after his contract expired this offseason. The team attempted to replace him with Andre Dillard at tackle, but Dillard has had injury problems of his own.

The hope is that first-round pick Peter Skoronski is able to play well at guard, but either way, this line will lack continuity. Tannehill used to be somewhat mobile, which possibly could mask any offensive line issues. He will be 35 years old headed into next season and missed time last year with an ankle injury, which could hamper his mobility.

The team might turn to Will Levis -- their second-round pick in the 2023 draft -- if things get bad, and there are a wide range of possibilities if he becomes the starting signal-caller. That's always the case for a rookie passer, especially one that was as polarizing of a prospect as Levis was.

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