NFL Win Totals: Can the New-Look Vikings Win 8 Games This Season?

The Minnesota Vikings had a lost season last year after Kirk Cousins went down with a torn Achilles.

It forced them to make a major decision in the offseason to decide the future of the franchise, which has ultimately set them up as a team in a rebuilding phase.

With Cousins coming off such a difficult injury, Minnesota made the decision to watch Cousins leave for the Atlanta Falcons via free agency.

After going 7-10 in the regular season and missing the playoffs, the Vikings made sure to pursue their future by drafting the quarterback they want to move forward with them in the 2024 NFL Draft: J.J. McCarthy.

Along with this, they watched their best defensive player also leave in free agency as Danielle Hunter took his talents to Houston. Minnesota did, however, make sure to sign Justin Jefferson to a four-year, $140 million extension -- locking up their best player for the foreseeable future.

Following an offseason of major changes, can the Vikings win more games than they did in 2023 or will they truly endure a rebuild year under head coach Kevin O'Connell?

Let's check out their win total via the NFL win totals on FanDuel Sportsbook.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Win Total Odds

Vikings Over/Under 7.5 Wins

• Over: +132
• Under: -162

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +285
Odds to Win the NFC North: +900
Odds to Win the NFC: +3500
Super Bowl Odds: +8000 (tied 23rd-best)

Why Minnesota Could Win Over 7.5 Games

• J.J. McCarthy Develops Quickly
• Better Offense Featuring an Improved Running Game
• Defense Performs

The Minnesota Vikings may not be a playoff team this upcoming season, but there's reason to believe that they can overachieve. It all starts with the play at the quarterback position -- specifically from rookie J.J. McCarthy.

There's no confirmation that McCarthy will be the Week 1 starter after the Vikings signed veteran quarterback Sam Darnold in the offseason, but this team can win over 7.5 games if McCarthy is the one who is starting and if he develops fast.

During his final season at Michigan, McCarthy finished with 2,991 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He also ran for 202 yards and 3 scores. It was rare that the rookie signal caller had to throw 30 times a game, only hitting that mark three times over 15 games. Notably though, McCarthy was a winner. His college record was 27-1, showing that he knows what it takes to win and will have the offense around him to showcase those skills.

McCarthy will have an improved offense around him, which is why this should be a better offense top to bottom. All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson is locked in with the Vikings for years to come, and he will be on a mission to make up for an injury-filled 2023.

Then there's Jordan Addison, who did nothing but shine in his rookie season. In 17 games, Addison had 70 receptions, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns -- setting him up to be one of the best No. 2 options in football.

The return of T.J. Hockenson will serve as a key option to McCarthy or Darnold -- much like he was last season for the carousel of quarterbacks that the Vikings had.

And then there's the running game, the most important change on their roster besides at the QB position.

Minnesota was bottom-five in rushing last season with the trio of Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, and Cam Akers failing to do damage. As a result, they averaged just 91.4 rushing yards as a team -- ranking 29th in the NFL.

They went out to find an answer, coming in the form of Aaron Jones. While he will be entering his age-30 season, Jones did average 4.6 yards per carry in 11 games, running for 656 yards. He also added 30 receptions for 233 receiving yards.

Pairing Jones with the returning Chandler gives the Vikings a 1-2 punch that will be impactful -- at least more so than last year. The running game can be a big reason to win over 7.5 games and will simultaneously help McCarthy if he's given the reins early on.

The final reason the Vikings could win over 7.5 games is that their defense performs. Losing Danielle Hunter in the offseason is as big a loss as any, but they did make a strong signing by adding linebacker Jonathan Greenard.

Greenard, 27, had 12.5 sacks in 2023 -- marking a breakout for him. He will be the pass-rushing replacement for Hunter, hopefully providing a similar impact on Brian Flores' defense.

Speaking of Flores' defense, they ranked 16th in the league in terms of yards allowed per game (333.2). Placing there while having a high-octane offense could be all it takes for the Vikings to land above their win total -- but even a little improvement with a younger core now driving the defensive side could help also.

Minnesota has the talent on both sides of the ball -- but it'll ultimately be up to how quickly they can mature if they want to hit the over.

Why Minnesota Could Win Under 7.5 Games

• Quarterback Play Falls Short
• NFC North is Loaded
• Brutal Schedule

Succeed or fail by the quarterback position. That's what the Vikings are dealing with when it comes to the upcoming season.

Selecting J.J. McCarthy in the first round was a decision to make him the quarterback of the future for Minnesota. But while I do believe his growth can be what puts them over the win total they have set, he's still a rookie quarterback who can struggle. And there's no guarantee that it's McCarthy starting Week 1. There's a reason Sam Darnold was signed by the Vikings, and there is a reality that he starts to kick off the season.

As a starter in his career, Darnold has a record of 21-35 -- not the most welcoming sign off the rip. In his only start in 2023 for the San Francisco 49ers, Darnold went 16-for-26 with 189 passing yards and a touchdown while losing the game to the Los Angeles Rams. There's not a high ceiling for Darnold as starter, and it's why the quarterback play could fall short in 2024.

Maybe a bigger reason than their quarterback play is that the NFC North is stacked with talent -- including two NFC favorites.

The Detroit Lions were one game away from the Super Bowl last year while the Green Bay Packers were a score away from the NFC Conference Championship game. Both teams had good offseasons -- adding players and not losing anyone major throughout. Detroit ranks second odds-wise to take the NFC (+600) and the Packers are fifth (+850) on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Add in the clearly improved Chicago Bears, who enter the upcoming season with an offense now led by first pick Caleb Williams, D.J. Moore, and Keenan Allen along with a defense that was one of the best in 2023.

On paper, it's the Vikings that sit at the bottom of these teams as their NFC odds show (+3500). Six games against those three teams spell trouble for the Vikings, who already have a difficult schedule outside of the division.

And that brings us to the difficult schedule that the Vikings deal with in 2024.

The Vikings have the sixth-highest average opponent win total in 2024.

Per Pro Football Focus' strength of schedule metric, Minnesota has the 12th-hardest schedule (4.1) in football this upcoming season. Sharp Football Analysis gives the Vikings the fifth-hardest schedule in football. No matter how you slice it, this season is going to be a difficult one for the Vikings.

Let's look at their opponents beyond the NFC North. They'll be facing the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers and two more 2023 playoff teams in the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans. They'll also have the New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, and Atlanta Falcons -- all of which are expect to be better than last season.

With a division and schedule like that, there's plenty of reason to have doubt in a team with a rookie quarterback and a middle-of-the-road defense. Matching their 2023 finish with 7 wins is beginning to feel much more likely than going over their win total of 7.5 as things sit right now.

Looking for other NFL win totals or the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.