NFL Win Totals: Can the Jaguars Contend for an AFC Championship?

The Jacksonville Jaguars ended the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, winning the AFC South and earning the fourth seed in the AFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Coming off their first division title since 2017, Jacksonville is looking to take the next step and contend for an AFC Championship.

Will the Jaguars surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

• Over: -150
• Under: +122

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -192
Odds to Win the AFC South: -160
Odds to Win the AFC: +1500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why Jacksonville Could Win Over 9.5 Games

• Trevor Lawrence Continues to Improve
• Calvin Ridley Makes a Positive Impact
• The AFC South

Trevor Lawrence's rookie season was disrupted by the turbulent Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville. Lawrence entered the NFL as the best prospect at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck but underwhelmed in his first season, completing 359 of 602 (59.6%) pass attempts for 3,641 yards (6.0 yards per attempt), 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. In 2022, under head coach Doug Peterson, Lawrence got off to a slow start but improved drastically as the season progressed, finishing with 387 completions on 548 pass attempts (70.6%) for 4,113 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.

After a very slow start, Lawrence's career appears to be back on track entering 2023. Entering his second full season under Doug Peterson, Lawrence could be ready to make another jump and join the elite tier of signal-callers in the NFL. If Calvin Ridley regains the form he demonstrated early in his career; Lawrence will be operating with the best pass-catching group he has ever had. The Jaguars' most likely path to winning at least ten games starts with Lawrence's play continuing to trend upwards. He has the eighth-best odds (+1600) to win MVP, according to the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Calvin Ridley's addition to the Jaguars' offense provides another path to winning at least ten games. Despite some early season struggles, the Jaguars still scored the tenth-most points in the league last season (404). The range of outcomes on Ridley's impact in 2023 is wide. In 2021, his last full season, he hauled in 90 receptions on 143 targets for 1,374 yards (15.2 yards per reception) and 9 touchdowns. In 2022, Ridley missed time for mental health reasons, catching 31 of 52 targets for 281 yards (9.1 yards per reception) and 2 touchdowns in 5 games played before being suspended for a season for betting on NFL games.

If Ridley plays at a level near his form from 2021, he can ascend to the top of the Jaguars' wide receiver group and help the offense take the next step. Even operating as a solid number two option behind Christian Kirk, Ridley could improve the offense this season. If everything goes according to plan, Ridley's addition combined with continued improvement from Lawrence could result in Jacksonville's offense spearheading a season that results in at least ten wins.

The final reason the Jaguars could win at least ten games is a weak AFC South. The Jaguars have the 10th-easiest schedule via 2023 win totals. Their odds to win their division (-160) are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs' odds for second-best in the league behind only the San Francisco 49ers' odds to win the NFC West (-165). In a loaded AFC where most teams face intense competition in their own division, the Jaguars are heavily favored to repeat as AFC South champions.

Why Jacksonville Could Win Under 9.5 Games

• Trevor Lawrence's Play Plateaus
• The Jaguars Struggle Against Elite Opponents
• The AFC South Surprises

Lawrence ended last season on an upwards trajectory, but it's possible that further improvement doesn't happen immediately. Lawrence will be expected to make a third-year jump, but that would elevate him to a level that very few signal callers reach. If Lawrence's play plateaus, Jacksonville can certainly still repeat as division champions, but they will have a harder time taking games off of true contenders, of which they play five this season.

Those five are the Chiefs, 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Baltimore Ravens. All five rank inside the top eight in Super Bowl odds, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Jaguars' schedule as a whole is still on the easier side, but the top end of their schedule is extremely difficult and includes four of the current top five teams in Super Bowl odds. They could lose to all five and still win at least 10 games but doing so would leave them with little margin for error in their remaining 12 contests.

That margin for error could come into play if the AFC South surpasses expectations. The primary reason the other three teams in the division have low expected win totals is inexperience or uncertainty at quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are expected to have rookie signal-callers under center in Week 1 while the Tennessee Titans could turn to rookie Will Levis at some point this season.

The play of this trio of rookie quarterbacks will have a large impact on Jacksonville's path to winning at least ten games this season. If they struggle, the Jaguars could walk an easy path and repeat as AFC South champions, collecting six wins along the way. If one or more exceed expectations and excel, Jacksonville's path becomes more difficult.

Adding to the impact rookies will have on Jacksonville is a Week 17 clash with the Carolina Panthers, who selected quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick in this year's draft. By that point in the season, Young could have fifteen games of experience and provide Jacksonville with a tougher challenge than if they played earlier in the year.

Overall, the Jaguars' path to over 9.5 wins looks solid, but with seven of their games coming against rookie quarterbacks, that could shift if those rookies exceed expectations.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.