NFL Win Totals: Can the Falcons Win the NFC South?

The Atlanta Falcons ended the 2022 season with a 7-10 record, finishing last in the NFC South and 13th in the NFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 8.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With Desmond Ridder under center, Atlanta is looking to take the next step and compete for a division title.

Will the Falcons surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Atlanta Falcons 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 8.5

• Over: -115
• Under: -105

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +116
Odds to Win the NFC South: +220
Odds to Win the NFC: +2500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +5500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Ryan Nielsen in for Dean Pees

Why Atlanta Could Win Over 8.5 Games

• Desmond Ridder is Ready
• Explosive Playmakers on Offense
• A Favorable Schedule

After parting ways with Marcus Mariota this offseason, the Falcons chose not to address the quarterback position in the draft and will enter the 2023 season with sophomore Desmond Ridder under center. Ridder started four games for the Falcons last season, completing 73 of 115 (63.5%) pass attempts for 708 yards (6.1 yards per attempt) and 2 touchdowns.

The Falcons' offense is among the most run-heavy in the NFL, but Atlanta's outlook this season still relies heavily on Ridder being ready for the starting job. If he is up to the task, he will have the advantage of operating an offense with some of the best young playmakers in the league. An effective passing game would keep opposing defenses honest and provide opportunities for rookie running back Bijan Robinson to shine. If Ridder struggles, the Falcons could become even more one-dimensional, increasing the difficulty for their ground game. Atlanta's path to winning nine games becomes much easier if Ridder provides them with at least league-average play.

League-average play may be enough because of the talent the Falcons have around Ridder. The majority of their offensive touches will go to top-10 draft picks in tight end Kyle Pitts (fourth overall in 2021), wide receiver Drake London (eighth overall in 2022), and running back Bijan Robinson (eighth overall in 2023). If Ridder can get this trio the ball on time in space, they can do the rest.

Robinson's addition to the offense provides the Falcons with a generational prospect at the position their offense utilizes the most. Robinson has the fourth-best odds (+1200) to lead the league in rushing yards, according to the NFL props betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The only players with better odds are Jonathan Taylor (+750), Nick Chubb (+750), and Derrick Henry (+900). With Robinson as the engine of the offense, the potential downside of Ridder's inexperience is minimized.

Also working in Ridder's favor is the Falcons' schedule, which is the easiest in the league via 2023 win totals. Atlanta doesn't play a single team ranked inside the top six in championship odds this season, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Nine of their games come against teams ranked inside the bottom seven. The Falcons could reach nine wins this season without defeating a team with preseason Super Bowl odds better than +6000.

Why Atlanta Could Win Under 8.5 Games

• Desmond Ridder Struggles
• Offseason Additions on Defense Start Slow
• Inexperienced Quarterbacks Excel

The opportunity is there for Ridder, but if he struggles, things could get difficult for Atlanta quickly. Taylor Heinicke is available off the bench, which provides a respectable backup option, but poor quarterback play would greatly dampen the Falcons' outlook this season.

The impact of both Pitts and London was limited last year by the poor passing performances of Mariota. Mariota finished last season ranked 42nd in Pro Football Focus' passing grade (62.7). Pitts only hauled in 28 of his 59 targets, resulting in 356 yards (12.7 yards per reception) and 2 touchdowns in 10 games played. London caught 72 of 117 targets for 866 yards (12.0 yards per reception) and 4 touchdowns. That production doesn't match the talent level of this duo.

Both Ridder (60.1) and Heinicke (48.9) produced a lower passing grade than Mariota last season. If their play doesn't improve, the Falcons' playmakers may be limited again in 2023.

That would be a huge problem for Atlanta if the offseason additions they made to their defense get off to a slow start. The Falcons surrendered the 10th-most points (386) in the league last season. To address that, they signed multiple players in free agency, most notably safety Jessie Bates III, defensive tackle David Onyemata, and linebacker Kaden Elliss. They also made a change at defensive coordinator, bringing in Ryan Nielsen for Dean Pees.

If Atlanta's offense struggles, the Falcons' defense will need to adjust to their offseason changes quickly. Two of Atlanta's most difficult games of the season come in Weeks 3 and 4 when they will be on the road against the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively.

Finally, while the Falcons' schedule is projected to be an easy one, that projection is very dependent on inexperienced quarterbacks. Six of Atlanta's games are against either rookie quarterbacks or quarterbacks in the starter role for the first time. That number could rise to nine if the Tennessee Titans turn to Will Levis and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go with Kyle Trask.

How those quarterbacks perform as they gain experience will have a large impact on the difficulty of the Falcons' schedule. If they exceed expectations, Atlanta's path to nine wins becomes more difficult, especially if they are dealing with quarterback struggles of their own.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.