NFL Win Totals: Are Aaron Rodgers and Jets Legit Contenders?

The New York Jets ended the 2022 season with a 7-10 record, finishing in last place in the AFC East.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Despite the last-place finish last season, there were reasons for optimism in 2022, and a big trade has them as a contender in the AFC, according to the oddsmakers.

Will the Jets surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

New York Jets 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

Over: -122
Under: +100

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -134
Odds to Win the AFC East: +250
Odds to Win the AFC: +1000
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +1600

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett in for Mike LaFleur

Why New York Could Win Over 9.5 Games:

• Improved Quarterback Play
• Young Players Taking Another Step
• Elite Defense

The big story for the Jets this offseason was the trade for Aaron Rodgers. It seemed like the only thing the Jets were missing last season was solid quarterback play, as the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White were ultimately not good enough to make the playoffs.

Rodgers had a down year in 2022 after back-to-back MVPs, but even his play from last season would be an improvement from what the Jets have been getting under center. Rodgers brought over two receivers he's familiar with in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. He also has familiarity with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett from their days together with the Green Bay Packers.

The thing missing for Rodgers last season was an elite wide receiver after Green Bay traded Davante Adams. The Jets may have that elite wide receiver in Garrett Wilson, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards last campaign despite playing with three different starting quarterbacks.

The clear strength of this New York team last season was the defense. They ranked third overall and second against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. We saw Sauce Gardner win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award after putting together one of the most impressive seasons we've seen from a rookie defensive back.

Besides Rodgers and the new receivers, there weren't a ton of personnel changes. Another new receiver was brought to the team in Mecole Hardman, a player who showed flashes of talent with the Kansas City Chiefs. It would be surprising if he was a true difference-maker, but he could make some big plays.

The biggest change besides the quarterback was at offensive coordinator. Hackett was one of the worst head coaches we've seen in recent memory last year with the Denver Broncos. Perhaps the pressure of being a head coach got to him a bit, as a lot of his issues were more related to clock errors and game management, although Hackett clearly didn't get the most out of Russell Wilson.

Outgoing offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur didn't exactly do a great job last season. He got creative in the run game when Breece Hall was healthy, but he didn't continue that after Hall went down. LaFleur was unable to get the aerial attack going for many games last season, though it wasn't entirely his fault.

Hall's impending return is also a positive for the Jets. It's rare that a running back makes a huge impact on what a team's win total should be, but Hall's propensity to break off big plays along with his pass-catching skills means that Hall could move the needle for Gang Green.

The addition of Rodgers gives the Jets their first legitimate star-level quarterback since they acquired Brett Favre in 2008. That team was similar to this one. It had young talent such as Darrelle Revis and needed steady quarterback play to reach its potential. After an 8-3 start in 2008, Favre tried to play injured, and it kickstarted a collapse. The foundation of that team was able to make the next two AFC Championship games, even without Favre.

Why New York Could Win Under 9.5 Games:

• Rodgers Is Nearly 40
• Defense Could Regress
• Tough Division and Schedule

The Jets, of course, aren't getting Rodgers in his prime. They are getting him fresh off a season when he posted the second-lowest yards per attempt of his career.

Many football fans saw Tom Brady comfortably play into his 40s and might assume that Rodgers can do the same. That isn't necessarily the case, and the decline in play from Rodgers last year should be a bit worrying moving forward.

While the Jets' defense was very impressive last season, there's a chance that New York's D isn't as good this year. Defense isn't as sticky year to year as offense is in this version of the NFL, one that tends to skew toward O. Elite defenses seem to get figured out faster by the offenses in the league rather than vice-versa.

The Jets will also have to compete against some tough opponents.

The AFC East is one of the best divisions in football. The Buffalo Bills have the second-best odds to win the AFC. The Miami Dolphins also have a win total set at 9.5 games, just like the Jets do. The New England Patriots are projected to come in last place in this division but still have a respectable win total at 7.5.

The two divisions the AFC East will go up against are the AFC West and NFC East. That means games against the two teams that were in the Super Bowl last year -- along with three other playoff teams.

Overall, the Jets' schedule ranks as the seventh-toughest in the NFL, per 2023 win total odds. That is actually the easiest schedule for any team in their division, as the Jets' last-place finish from 2022 means they get three games against fellow last-place teams from last year.

Ultimately, the Jets are a very interesting team with a wide range of outcomes. Acquiring a veteran signal-caller could turn out like it did for the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Brady or like it did for last season's Broncos. Odds are, the Jets will land somewhere in between.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.