NFL Win Totals: Are the Browns Set for an Improved Campaign?

The Cleveland Browns finished an injury-riddled 2022 season with a 7-10 record and a last-place finish in the AFC North.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 9.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With a full offseason under Deshaun Watson's belt, Cleveland is looking to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Will the Browns surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cleveland Browns 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 9.5

• Over: +108
• Under: -134

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +104

Odds to Win the AFC North: +390

Odds to Win the AFC: +1700

Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +2800

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Jim Schwartz in for Joe Woods

Why Cleveland Could Win Over 9.5 Games

• Deshaun Watson Returns to MVP Form
• Wide Receivers Continue to Develop
• Jim Schwartz Realizes the Defense's Potential

Last year was something of a lost season for the Browns. Cleveland mortgaged their future on Deshaun Watson but was handicapped by Watson's 11-game suspension. They finished 3-3 with Watson at the helm -- although things should get easier in 2023 considering Clevland projects to have the 12th-easiest schedule, per 2023 win totals.

Watson's play will largely dictate both the floor and ceiling for Cleveland in 2023. Still just 27 years old, Watson was a legitimate MVP candidate in his last full season. He threw for 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions in his final season with the Houston Texans. That feels like eons ago, however, as Watson did not appear in a game in 2021 before being suspended for the first 11 games of 2022.

While Watson didn't look great last year, he wasn't eligible to step foot in team facilities until Week 6 and couldn't practice until Week 11. The talent is still there, but whether or not Watson can return to an elite level is the single biggest question mark facing the Browns.

Watson will likely be playing with the most complete receiving core of his career in 2023. PFF graded Amari Cooper as a top-15 receiver in the league last year after he caught 78 passes for 1,160 yards and 9 touchdowns. On the opposite side of him, Donovan Peoples-Jones burst onto the scene with the quietest 61 receptions and 839 yards you'll find. David Njoku was a force over the middle of the field and finished eighth among tight ends in receptions (58) and yards (628) despite missing three games.

Those three form a solid core, but Cleveland then hijacked former second-round pick Elijah Moore from the New York Jets. Moore fell out of favor in New York but flashed incredible potential as a rookie in 2021. Browns fans are salivating over the 459 yards and 5 touchdowns he posted over a six-game span as a rookie.

Those receiving options are secondary, however, to Nick Chubb, who has cemented himself as one of the best backs in the league and is coming off his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

With Jim Schwartz in as the defensive coordinator, Cleveland could finally realize their full potential on that side of the ball. A mainstay in the NFL coaching world, Schwartz spent the last two seasons with the Tennessee Titans -- during which they led the NFL in rushing defense (80.7 yards per game). He should be an immediate upgrade over Joe Woods and has plenty of individual talent to play with such as Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith, and Greg Newsome II. The pieces are all there for Cleveland to boast their best defense in years.

Why Cleveland Could Win Under 9.5 Games

• Watson Struggles Again
• Cleveland Can't Stop the Run
• The AFC North Holds Up

If Watson is the key to unlocking Cleveland's offense, he's also the key to keeping it locked away. Watson eclipsed 200 yards just twice last year and completed only 65% of his passes. While he finished with more touchdowns (seven) than interceptions (five), three of those touchdowns came via blown coverages against a Washington Commanders team that was in shambles down the stretch. Consequently, the Browns scored 20 points just twice in Watson's six starts.

To be frank, even if Watson looks the same as he did last season, Cleveland should feature an above-average offense given their personnel. However, losing Kareem Hunt could result in a lot of extra hits on Chubb's Iron Man-like frame. Hardly anyone features a single back these days, and it isn't clear who has the chops to spell Chubb in the Hunt role in 2023.

Even if the Browns take a step forward on offense, they aren't going anywhere while ranking 25th in rushing defense (135.0 yards per game). Schwartz may help that, but the scheme fixes only so much. Newcomer Smith figures to help more against the pass (where he ranked ninth in pass-rush grade), but he's 31 and dealt with a nagging knee injury over the second half of 2022.

"Defensive injury" is essentially a curse word in Cleveland after the disaster that 2022 was. While the Browns' injury luck should change this season, defensive durability has to be a concern entering 2023. The additions of Dalvin Tomlinson and Juan Thornhill should help stabilize things, but the Browns have ranked in the top half of the league in scoring defense only once since 2015.

Let's just assume Watson returns to form and the defense improves. The Browns still play in the AFC North -- arguably the best division in football. The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are perennial contenders, and the Pittsburgh Steelers still haven't had a losing season under Mike Tomlin. Even the most optimistic Brownie probably wouldn't see Cleveland winning more than four games in the division.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.