NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Picks and Predictions for Chargers at Texans

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Chargers at Texans Betting Picks

Texans' Moneyline (+130)

I can't reasonably project an offense with C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins for worse efficiency than where my model has the Texans right now.

Even with pessimism abounding, the model still shows value on the Texans to win, so I feel inclined to pull the trigger.

Part of that is due to not being enamored with the Chargers. They've been a solid team, sitting 11th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings and 8th on defense, but they're not in the elite tier.

That's kind of how they're being billed, given they're 2.5-point favorites on the road against a team that got more rest than they did in Week 18. I'm just not quite there with them right now.

As for the Texans, they have the benefit of a defense that played great ball this year, ranking fifth overall for the full season. This gives the offense wiggle room to be imperfect and still get a win, which is how they made it to this point. We just need them to do it one more time, and I've got faith they can give the Chargers a good run for their money.

Texans' Team Total Over 20.5 (+106)

If you don't want to bet against Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey, instead preferring to just buy low on the Texans' offense, this is your route.

For as flawed as the Texans were, they still went over 20.5 points in 11 of 17 games, including 7 of 10 when playing indoors. Although Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were able to play in some of those, Houston was able to go over 20.5 points in four of five games without Collins, which is impressive given the gravity he carries.

After factoring in the Texans' offensive issues and the Chargers' defense, my model's NFL spread and total predictions have the Chargers favored by 0.67 with the total at 43.61. That puts the Texans' implied total at 21.5. Given we get a win on a key number of 21, I'm willing to take the plus money on the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.