NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Browns at Texans

The NFL playoffs are officially here, meaning we will be treated to six games of Wild Card Round action this week. Kicking things off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday will be the Cleveland Browns traveling south to take on the Houston Texans.

The Browns surged to strong 11-6 record this year, which was good enough to secure them a spot as a Wild Card team but not quite enough to help them claim the AFC North -- not with the Baltimore Ravens earning that title and the top seed in the AFC. Cleveland's strong defense helped them weather a storm of offensive woes throughout the season. Fortunately for them, things have appeared to get back on track with Joe Flacco's steady presence running the offense.

The Texans earned the privilege of hosting the Browns in this round by taking down the AFC South. Their franchise has done a 180 from the team that won 11 total games over its previous three seasons, finishing rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud's debut campaign with a 10-6 record. First year head coach DeMeco Ryans has done one heck of a job with his team.

This won't be the first time we've seen these teams clash this season. The Browns won, 36-22, over the Texans back in Week 16 but did so against a Houston team missing both Stroud and fellow rookie and star-in-the-making Will Anderson. Things should look different this time around.

So, how will this one shake down, and which bets should you consider at FanDuel Sportsbook for this playoff-opening contest?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Cleveland -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Cleveland -144
• Houston +122

Total: 44.5

Browns-Texans Best Bets

Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)

The Browns have a significant edge on defense in this one, which should be enough to help them both take the win over and do so by more than a field goal.

On the year, Cleveland has played some lights out D. According to numberFire's metrics, the Browns' passing defense limited opposing quarterbacks to just -0.07 Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- their foes lost expected points by calling pass plays in 2023.

That makes them a brutal pairing for Houston, whose passing offense far outshined its rushing attack. Their passing offense ranked eighth-best, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, while their rushing game slots in fourth-worst. Assuming the Texans lean on Stroud, they'll be playing right into teeth of the Browns' defense.

It's also worth noting that Stroud -- who led the league in passing yards per game (273.9) -- didn't face many tough passing defenses this year and struggled when he did.

The New York Jets bottled him up in Week 14, limiting Stroud to just 91 scoreless passing yards while allowing him to complete just 10 of 23 attempts. He completed 28 of 44 attempts for 242 yards in his only other matchup versus a top-five passing defense (when he battled the Ravens back in Week 1), with most of his production in that game coming in garbage time or two-minute situations.

Over 44.5 (-108)

Despite their impressive defense, the Browns have hit the over in four of Flacco's five starts and in six of their last seven games. They're putting points on the board, topping 30 points three separate times since Flacco seized the reins.

The veteran quarterback has looked rejuvenated in the Browns' play-action-heavy scheme and is averaging a career-best 7.35 net yards per attempt. He should have little trouble moving the ball against the Texans' middling defense, one that ranks 13th worst versus the pass, according to numberFire's metrics.

Even if the Browns' defense is too much for the Texans' offense to handle over the course of a full game, Stroud and company should hopefully be able to at least hold up their side of things.

Only the Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill-infused offense generated more yards on deep passes this year, while Stroud boasts a league-best 140.5 passer rating on attempts of 20-plus yards. Even if they can't string together consistent drives, Houston should be able to create enough explosive plays to score some points. We're just one week removed from Stroud connecting with top wideout Nico Collins on a 75-yard bomb, after all.

On a related note, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering several Wild Card Weekend Specials, one of which is a wager on any player to record a receiving touchdown of 75-plus yards across the six Wild Card games at +300 odds. It's a bet to consider if you like Stroud's chances of hitting for another long score this week.

If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 13th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.