NFL Week 7 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 7

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: New York Giants +3 (-115)

WHAT COULD GO WRONG betting on a team with a banged-up quarterback and a patchwork offensive line? The answer -- quite likely -- is "a lot," but I think the market fully accounts for those things. My model has the Giants as favored in this game, and I agree with that, personally. They have faced a hellish schedule the first six weeks with four of their opponents being +1100 or shorter to win the Super Bowl. This is a good bounce-back spot regardless of the situation at quarterback and along the line.

Total: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 37.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Isiah Pacheco Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-102)

Total: Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens Under 43.5 (-115)

I know we appear desperate for offense in the 1 p.m. EST window, but the Lions and Ravens will have to navigate similar sustained winds and gusts that other games will this weekend, and I'm greatly concerned about Detroit's early-season offense sticking here. They are without David Montgomery and with a sub-100% Jahmyr Gibbs, and they'll be throwing against numberFire's second-best adjusted pass defense. Detroit is also numberFire's 10th-best schedule-adjusted defensive unit, and two top-10 defenses in these conditions produce a low-scoring affair more often than not.

Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

Total: Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts Under 40.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Cade Otton Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Cade Otton is close to an every-snap player for the Bucs, logging a snap rate of at least 91% in every game. While the Falcons' defense is solid, they've been giving to tight ends, permitting the sixth-most catches and ninth-most yards to the position. I'll back Otton to clear this low bar even though he's gone for 20-plus yards just once in 2023.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Washington Commanders -3 (-105)

Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams Under 43.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+135)

The Giants have allowed the third-most (796) rushing yards to running backs along with the third-most (7) rushing touchdowns. Robinson has a 59% red zone rushing share when the next highest player on the team is at 13%. For rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, Robinson is at 66% and the next-best player is at 11%. For rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, Robinson is at a whopping 83% when the next player is at 16%.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

Between three interceptions and some mind-boggling play clock issues, Desmond Ridder was dreadful against the Commanders in Week 6, and it's hard to have much confidence in this Atlanta offense. Making matters worse, Ridder will probably have to throw against a Tampa Bay team that ranks second in schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire. The Bucs have shown they're capable of taking out lesser opponents and shouldn't have trouble covering a small spread at home.

Total: Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts Under 40.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Cleveland Browns -3 (-115)

Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears Under 37.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 Receptions (+108)

Romeo Doubs struggled in Green Bay's most recent game before their bye, but he commanded a 25.6% target share in Weeks 1-4. He's eclipsed this 3.5-reception threshold in three of their five games overall and stands a good chance of doing so again given the matchup. Not only have the Broncos surrendered the highest catch rate (75.8%) and the highest catch rate over expectation (11%) to wide receivers, but Doubs himself is expected to draw a ton of Damarri Mathis – PFF’s third-lowest graded corner (37.6) and someone who’s surrendered the fifth-most receptions (27) in the NFL.

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Cleveland Browns -3 (-115)

Total: Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears Under 37.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown (+105)

Following injuries to Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers in Week 6, the Rams' backfield has been a hot topic of discussion this week. Los Angeles made several moves to address the position and we enter the weekend with a high degree of uncertainty about how touches will be distributed against the Steelers. That uncertainity could lead the Rams to lean into their passing game, which bodes well for Cooper Kupp, who has been on fire since returning in Week 5. One area where the Rams will miss Williams the most is the red-zone. His six touchdowns this season lead the team, and outside of Cam Akers, who is now in Minnesota, Williams is the only RB on Los Angeles with a touchdown this season. His absence, combined with Kupp's exisiting chemistry with Stafford, should make the superstar wide reciever a key part of Los Angeles' red-zone plans in Week 7.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

Total: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Over 47.5 (-115)

Since Justin Herbert has entered the NFL, he has faced the Kansas City Chiefs in six separate head-to-head games. Over that stretch, the combined point total between the Chargers and K.C. has gone over 47.5 points at an 83.3% clip. Also, those six contests have produced a mean total of 56.0 PPG. Given the offensive skill cast featured in this one -- Patrick Mahomes, Herbert, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, and more -- I think this one will turn into a scoring show as per usual. Mahomeboy and Herbie always seem to bring out the best in one another.

Player Prop: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+155)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Detroit Lions +3 (-118)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 37.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Raheem Mostert Over 67.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

The Eagles defense isn’t a perfect match for Raheem Mostert, but I think the market more than accounted for that with this set line. Mostert is averaging 95.7 total yards through Week 6. Granted, the two times Mostert failed to clear this bar correlated with Miami’s toughest defensive matchups (New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills), but Philadelphia is still giving up an average of 84.3 total yards to running backs, and Mostert should be able to eat up 68-plus yards of that. De’Von Achane’s stint on the IR should ensure that Mostert’s usage is high even with the return of Jeff Wilson Jr., who we shouldn’t rely on to produce too much given this is his first game back. Plus, this game boasts the highest total in Week 7, so there should be some decent yardage across the board.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Cleveland Browns -3 (-115)

Cleveland is coming off an impresive win against the 49ers last week. They do have to go on the road here but will face Gardner Minshew. Minshew was not good last week, throwing three interceptions. He's averaged -0.01 Net Expected Points per drop back this season. Now, he has to face a ferocious Browns' defense that numberFire ranks first against the both the pass and the run.

Total: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos Over 45 (-110)

Player Prop: Diontae Johnson Over 4.5 Receptions (+106)

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-108)

Total: Washington Commanders at New York Giants Over 37.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions (-154)

With a game total of 47.5, the expectation is that a lot of points are going to be scored in the Chargers-Chiefs game -- and rightfully so. If the Chargers plan to keep up with the Chiefs, they're going to have to lean on Keenan Allen as they have all season. In five games this season, Allen has caught over 6.5 receptions three times -- including an 18-reception game. Allen has a 30.9% target market share and 34.0% air yard market share on the season. He's still held a 26.7% target share in the last two weeks post the 18-reception day. He's set up for a huge day against Kansas City as Justin Herbert's top option.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.