NFL Week 5 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 5's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NOTE: Last updated Sunday at 9:53 am Eastern.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

49ers at Rams Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -6.4

Total Prediction: 48.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I think the model has this total too high, so no consideration toward the over for me despite showing value.

Vikings vs. Browns Prediction

Spread Prediction: Vikings -7.7

Total Prediction: 38.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Even though this is a neutral site game, the Minnesota Vikings have a massive travel advantage. That's part of why I'm showing value here even after downgrading them for key offensive-line injuries.

Texans at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -3.9

Total Prediction: 41.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This is now with Lamar Jackson as out, and I don't mind taking the value the model is showing on the Houston Texans.

Giants at Saints Prediction

Spread Prediction: Saints -0.7

Total Prediction: 42.7

Betting Odds

Dolphins at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Panthers -1.0

Total Prediction: 42.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Comfortable with the under here, given the Tyreek Hill injury and two underwhelming offenses.

Raiders at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: Colts -4.3

Total Prediction: 45.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Las Vegas Raiders have been productive on offense once you take out the implosions. Maybe those will stick, but turnovers can be fluky, so I don't mind taking the 6.5 here. I'm just less enthusiastic about doing so now that Brock Bowers is likely to sit.

Broncos at Eagles Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -3.1

Total Prediction: 46.2

Betting Odds

Cowboys at Jets Prediction

Spread Prediction: Jets -0.4

Total Prediction: 45.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I shudder at putting hard-earned money on a New York Jets team that can't throw the football, but the Dallas Cowboys' offense is banged up, and the defense still stinks. This number assumes CeeDee Lamb is out again.

Titans at Cardinals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -8.9

Total Prediction: 45.1

Betting Odds

Thoughts: What could go wrong betting an over in a Tennessee Titans game the week after they got shut out? I'm not enamored with either defense, so I agree with the model here.

Buccaneers at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Seahawks -1.3

Total Prediction: 44.1

Betting Odds

Commanders at Chargers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -2.1

Total Prediction: 49.5

Betting Odds

Lions at Bengals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -11.1

Total Prediction: 49.5

Betting Odds

Patriots at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -11.7

Total Prediction: 55.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: With the spread, I'm worried I'm a bit too low on the New England Patriots' offense, so I'm not inclined to bite. A good way to safeguard against that is taking the total over, which I do like even though it's now above 50.

Chiefs at Jaguars Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -4.4

Total Prediction: 46.9

Betting Odds

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.