NFL Week 4 Betting Guide

After the Detroit Lions won (and covered) on the road versus the rival Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 4 is officially underway.

In Thursday's contest, over bettors started the slate off with a win (after going 5-11 in Week 3), rejoicing when Lions running back David Montgomery rushed for his third score of the night. That moves Detroit to 3-1 this year -- both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Last week, the Dallas Cowboys were upset on the road by the Arizona Cardinals, 28-16, despite entering the desert as 12.5-point favorites. As such, Dallas' Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook inflated for the first time this season.

Naturally, you likely saw Taylor Swift make her debut appearance a Kansas City Chiefs game. She picked a good one; K.C. rolled over the Chicago Bears, 41-10 (featuring a Travis Kelce touchdown), easily covering their double-digit spread.

Looking at the upcoming schedule, a few noteworthy games are already on my mind. Immediately, an AFC East showdown in Western New York between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins looms large. That contest will undoubtedly resonate across future boards.

Additionally, Week 4 will showcase another installment of NFL's International Series -- the Jacksonville Jaguars are hosting the Atlanta Falcons across the pond in London. Wildly enough, ESPN+ offers the game broadcast as well as some Toy Story/Pixar animated version; imagine the possibilities.

Let's dive into the Week 4 odds with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable of Sunday's lines in traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (10/1/2023)

Sunday's Full Slate

*Denotes neutral site

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (International Series)

• Location: Wembley Stadium, London, UK
• Time: 9:30 a.m. EST
• TV: ESPN+
• Spread: JAX -3
• Moneyline: ATL +136/JAX -162
• Total: 43.5 (-105/-115)

Continuing their annual tradition dating back to 2012, the Jaguars are set for their bid in England. This time, Atlanta will be on hand at Wembley Stadium as opposition. Between these two sides, the first commonality that sticks out is wide receiver Calvin Ridley; the 28-year old has only scored once in 2023, but perhaps he makes it personal against his former team. His anytime touchdown scorer odds are at +160.

Jacksonville probably doesn't mind leaving the country after being upset by the rival Houston Texans last week, 37-17. Of course, the Jags' moneyline was priced at -390 heading into that game; they are now 1-2 both SU and ATS.

The Falcons are currently struggling with self-identity, as well. They have several young, talented skill players on offense, but they are averaging only 18.3 points per game. Either way, they are 2-1 (1-2 ATS) through three weeks and have +145 odds (second-shortest) at FanDuel Sportsbook in the 2023-24 NFC South betting market.

Best Bet: Over 43.5

I'd like to take Jacksonville ATS here, but I'm still a little gunshy from their performance last week. Trevor Lawrence and company should be able to clean up the turnovers this week against Atlanta, but at the same time, I think the Falcons offense can find positive form against Jacksonville. On defense, the Jags have surrendered an average of 264.3 passing yards per game in 2023. That could mean productive games from opposing receiving threats Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Without a solid lean on either side, I like over 43.5 total points. The Jaguars play in the UK for two consecutive games, so I imagine they have already settled in. They would be wise to set the tone across the pond in their first bid. Simply, I think both offenses (behind dynamic tailbacks in Travis Etienne and Bijan Robinson) can win matchups against the defenses at hand.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: CBS
• Spread: BUF -3 (-105)
• Moneyline: BUF -148/MIA +126
• Total: 53.5 (-105/-115)

A heavyweight clash in the AFC East, the Bills and 'Fins will meet in Buffalo for an early season size up. Miami enters undefeated on the season -- both SU and ATS -- while the Bills are 2-1 in both areas. For now, the Dolphins' divisional odds (-135) are the shortest in their grouping.

Both sides boast quality defenses in this tilt, but all eyes will be on the quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa is off to the hottest start in the NFL, displaying a league-leading QBR of 82.6 right now. On the home side, Josh Allen had one poor performance to open 2023, but his play has sharpened since then; Allen's completion clip of 72.7% is currently third among all starting signal-callers.

At the moment, Buffalo's defense is scary without Von Miller, so I imagine it will be more fierce down the line. Still, they rank second in scoring and yardage allowed. Also, the Bills have already intercepted seven passes -- one of which for a pick-six by A.J. Epenesa.

It will be quite fun to watch the speed of Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane against the defensive unit of Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and Micah Hyde. Stars are likely out on both sides here, however; don't expect Jordan Poyer (knee) or Jaylen Waddle (concussion) to suit up in Week 4 -- though the latter may be activated.

Best Bet: Under 53.5 (-115)

This will likely be the best NFL action of the weekend -- and potentially the entire regular season. As division rivals, the Bills have defeated Miami in three of the past four head-to-head matchups. In that span, the rivals have averaged 43.25 combined points per game.

Undeniably, Miami's offense is flying high behind Tua's 10.1 yards per passing attempt right now (highest among NFL starters), but things tend to slow down in divisional tilts. Basically, I don't think the Dolphins will put up 70 in consecutive weeks.

For me, a 53.5 total is ambitious, so I like the under. I expect Buffalo's experienced secondary to play a major role at Orchard Park, slowing down Miami's pace. At numberFire, this contest carries a projected score of 27.90-23.80 in favor of the Bills. That would results in fewer than 52 total points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

• Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
• TV: CBS
• Spread: LAC -4.5
• Moneyline: LV +176/LAC -210
• Total: 49.5 (-105/-115)

When the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers get together, it is almost always personal. The franchises used to share a state for about 60 years and, as such, festered a deep resentment for one another. Oh yes, the Davis-Spanos rivalry goes back generations.

Of course, "Da Raiduhs" and Bolts are still hated division rivals. Ironically, Las Vegas gets their one true home atmosphere per season when they travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers; you've seen those blended crowds at Vegas' Allegiant Stadium, right?. Still, the Silver & Black seem discombobulated after a sour 2023 home opener, especially in regards to new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He threw three interceptions and suffered a concussion. Garoppolo remains questionable for this one.

On the other side, don't let LAC's 1-2 record fool you; Justin Herbert has been slinging the football all around the yard with precision, averaging 313.0 passing yards in 2023. He has also tossed six touchdowns without committing a turnover this year.

Herbert and Keenan Allen have been masterfully in sync, as the the two have connected early and often. Allen has grabbed 35.6% of Herbert's total completions thus far in the current campaign. That figure is bound to go up in the coming weeks; Mike Williams (knee) is out for the year, and Austin Ekeler (ankle) is struggling to return to full health.

Best Bet: Chargers -4.5

The head coaches in this one -- Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels -- are both known to do questionable things with analytics, so it can be tough to completely eliminate that factor. However, after seeing Josh Jacobs 2023 production (2.4 yards per attempt through three games) in unison with Davante Adams' expressed frustrations, I can't find myself to back the Raiders right now.

Recent contests between the Vegas and L.A. have shown close, splitting the past six head-to-head meetings. They've twice required overtime during that span. Still, with the Raiders unsure of Jimmy G's status this weekend, it is tough to blindly support a possibility of Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell.

I think the Chargers notch their first comfortable win of the season. I'll take the Bolts laying 4.5 at home -- even if it's not a true home-field atmosphere for them this weekend.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.