NFL Week 3 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 3

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Detroit Lions -3 (-120)

I was hesitant on the Lions' spread earlier on this week. But with Amon-Ra St. Brown back at practice Thursday and are now getting a push on 3, I'm willing to pull the trigger. My model makes the Lions 5.8-point favorites in this game, even after accounting for the loss of CJ Gardner-Johnson. The Lions' passing offense towers over the Falcons' in projected passing efficiency, so it's hard for me to lay off with the spread ticking down to 3.

Total: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Over 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Denver Broncos +6.5 (-110)

Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders Over 43.0 (-110)

This is a great matchup for both of these offenses to get back on track. Pittsburgh, surprisingly, is numberFire's 12th-worst adjusted rush defense, which should help Las Vegas establish Josh Jacobs more than they have all year. Las Vegas is also numberFire's worst overall defense, which should help a Steelers offense that's also been stuck in the mud. These two teams have graded out well in terms of pass rate and pace thus far, but they've both encountered four solid defenses. Look for this to be the spot where the trend reverses.

Player Prop: Alexander Mattison Anytime TD (-140)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Detroit Lions -3.0 (-120)

Total: New England Patriots at New York Jets Under 36.5 (-115)

The Pats-Jets clash is a matchup of two meh -- at best -- offenses and two strong defenses. In four Zach Wilson starts versus New England, the Jets have scored an average of 9.7 points per game. While 36.5 points is a low bar to clear, I'm still siding with the under.

Player Prop: Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (-130)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Los Angeles Rams +3 (-112)

Total: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions Over 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Christian Kirk Any Time Touchdown (+185)

With Zay Jones expected to miss, Kirk and his 23.3% target share are set to play a large role in the Jags' passing game. A 26.50 implied team total is a good indication they will be finding the endzone this week against the Texans.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-120)

Even with a healthy Nick Chubb, the Browns were going to have a tough time running against a Titans D that ranks fourth in adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics. Therefore, they're probably going to have to rely on the arm of Deshaun Watson, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Through two weeks, Watson ranks dead last among starting quarterbacks in Passing NEP per drop back.

Total: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Over 44.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Russell Wilson Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Washington Commanders +6.5 (-118)

Turnover-happy Josh Allen playing on the road in a tropical cyclone... what could go wrong? Washington's defense didn't look great last week but most of their woes came via explosive plays -- something nonexistent in Buffalo's offense right now. Last week, Josh Allen completed the third-lowest percentage (21.6%) of passes for 10+ yards per Sharp Football Analysis. The Commanders' 4th-ranked pressure rate should be able to fluster Allen into a few giveaways and keep things tight in what looks to be a sloppy affair.

Total: Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs Under 48.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (-105)

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-120)

Through two weeks, Tennessee has played the Saints close and upset the Chargers. Now they travel to face a Cleveland team that wants to run the ball, but no longer has Nick Chubb to do so. Cleveland ranks 19th in adjusted rush offense, per numberFire's metrics. They rank 31st in adjusted pass offense. The Titans D ranks 27th against the pass but 2nd against the run. The matchup calls for Cleveland to put the game on Deshaun Watson's shoulders. In that scenario, I'll take Tennessee and the points.

Total: Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs Under 48.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (-115)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: New England Patriots -2.5 (-115)

Total: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins Over 47.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Cole Kmet Over 30.5 receiving yards (-114)

The Bears’ tight end leads the team in target market share at 20.3% and has played in 84.3% of snaps (second to only D.J. Moore). He’s averaging 41 receiving yards and 6.5 targets through two games, and could be primed to keep this going should the Chicago offense be short-staffed and Darnell Mooney be ruled out for Sunday. Plus, Kansas City has given up an average of 48 receiving yards to starting tight ends thus far. Though things will likely look dreary for the drama-ridden Bears opposite the reigning champs, 30.5 receiving yards is a bar that Kmet should be more than capable of clearing this Sunday.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Tennessee Titans +3.5 (-120)

Total: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers Over 42.5 (-110)

Player Prop: George Pickens Over 53.5 receiving yards (-114)

Pickens showed on Monday night that he can beat this line on one catch, as he scored a 71-yard TD. In the first game without Diontae Johnson, he saw 30% of the targets. Now facing a Raiders' defense that ranks 28th in numberFire's pass-defense metrics, Pickens is set to have a big game on Sunday Night Football.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-105)

Total: Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns Under 39.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Justin Jefferson Over 7.5 Receptions (+106)

Justin Jefferson has been as advertised this season, recording at least 9 receptions and 150 receiving yards in back-to-back weeks. He did so against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles, two defenses expected to be, at the very last, in the middle of the pack this season. Now he gets a chance to take on the Los Angeles Chargers and a defense that has been the bottom of the league since the start. The Chargers are allowing 1.84 adjusted FanDuel points per target -- the most of any team in the league. Not only will Kirk Cousins being looking Jefferson's way often (28.2% target share) but it could very well be one of the best games of Jefferson's career if all goes right. Take the over on it all for JJettas.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.