NFL Week 3 Betting Guide

With two weeks in the books, we are back in the NFL swing of things.

Naturally, Week 3 is already well underway, and Thursday Night Football set the tone for the upcoming weekend.

In that contest out west, the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants both started slowly. However, by game's end, Christian McCaffrey (who just tied Jerry Rice for the franchise's most consecutive games with a touchdown) and Deebo Samuel each provided pivotal scores to give San Francisco a win against the spread, 30-12. Still, it was not enough to topple the total of 43.5, giving under bettors a narrow victory.

Across many noteworthy headlines last week, the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings both remain winless thus far. But something will have to give this Sunday as the two frustrated sides meet in the Twin Cities.

Like Week 1, Week 2 also had a share of upsets. The Baltimore Ravens triumphed over the rival Cincinnati Bengals on the road. In the NFC, we saw the Seattle Seahawks storm Motor City only to emerge with an overtime victory versus the Detroit Lions. The Washington Commanders did well to erase a 21-3 deficit against the Denver Broncos -- Denver is now 0-2 despite being favored in both weeks.

Overall, favorites went 10-6 straight up in Week 2. That is obviously an improvement from the chalk's 9-7 record in the opening frame.

In terms of the total, over bettors rejoiced. After going 3-12-1 in Week 1, the over nearly reciprocated in Week 2, going 13-3.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (9/24/23)

Remaining Week 3 Games

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: MIN -1.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: LAC -104/MIN -112
• Total: 53.5 (-118/-104)

Locking frustrated sides in a room together at Minneapolis' U.S. Bank Stadium this Sunday, the Bolts and Vikings were both recently featured as teams with steep drops in the Super Bowl LVIII odds market at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Under current NFL rules, it is possible the upcoming head-to-head contest ends in a tie, but I'd say it's far more likely one team earns their first win of the season while the other falls into the abyss of 0-3.

So far in 2023, neither Minnesota nor LAC has even logged a victory ATS. Despite both sides having quality offensive production in the campaign, they seem to be working with porous defenses. Los Angeles is allowing 9.6 yards per passing attempt (most in NFL) while the Vikes have been gashed on the ground for a total of 332 rushing yards in two games (fifth-most).

But no one's season is over just yet. Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins have their respective offensive units churning quite well. Los Angeles' AFC side has already scored more than 50 combined points this season while yielding no turnovers so far. Across the field, Captain Kirk is currently pacing the NFL in touchdown passes (6).

Best Bet: Over 53.5 (-118)

Considering recent track records extending into last season, it's tough to sniff which laboring group will notch that first win.

The Vikings may be aided by their home crowd atmosphere, but they have been plagued by turnovers this season, losing a staggering six fumbles in only two games. I'd like to think Herbert can take over this game in the Twin Cities, but with the team's late-game management, that doesn't feel wise, either.

As such, I think a play on the total best suits this contest.

This 53.5 over/under is the largest number showing in any Week 3 game, but these sides can easily push one another into up-tempo play. When surveying the offensive skill players on both sides, names like Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, T.J. Hockenson, Mike Williams, Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston jump out at me as a track meet.

Worth mentioning: Austin Ekeler has been ruled out, so expect Joshua Kelley to again shoulder the load for the Chargers.

I'm not sure who wins this one, but I think there will be points aplenty. For those curious, the majority of the bets and handle at FanDuel Sportsbook are on the over in this contest.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: JAX -8.5
• Moneyline: HOU +310/JAX -390
• Total: 44.5 (-115/-105)

For a Week 3 AFC South clash, the Houston Texans will take their winless record (SU and ATS) to visit the Jacksonville Jaguars.

As reigning division champions, the Jags have respectable aspirations in the current campaign. On the other hand, Houston is struggling with how to best utilize rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. He has yet to throw an interception, but the Texans have only averaged 14.5 points per game to this point.

Jacksonville has shown two wildly different showings in as many weeks. In Week 1, their offense saved the day behind 75% passing from Trevor Lawrence. Last week, the offense sputtered against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the defense did well to keep Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and company under 20 points despite losing.

Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is still looking for that elusive first win. For reference, Houston entered 2023 with the second-shortest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to be the last remaining winless team this season (+900). As of now, that number is down to +390 in the same market.

Transparently, Ryans may have a tough time getting the monkey off his back in Jacksonville.

Best Bet: Jaguars -8.5

In two meetings last season, the Jaguars defeated Houston on both occasions. In the most recent showing (Week 17), Jacksonville trounced the Texans, clobbering them 31-3 on their own field. On that day, tailback Travis Etienne ran for over 100 yards and a score.

Fast-forward back to the present, and that could once again be a problem for Houston -- they have already surrendered six rushing touchdowns in 2023.

The Jags are 1-1 ATS so far, and I think they go to 2-1 in that department after Week 3. Admittedly, eight with a hook can be a pesky number to play because it is two scores, but it's nothing that a touchdown and a field goal can't palliate.

Given how the Texans have looked in short work, it's tough to point to what they are doing well. In last week's home opener against the Indianapolis Colts, Houston allowed over 350 total yards. With the defense looking for identity, I'm not sure how successful Stroud can be continually playing behind the eight-ball. It's Jags by nine or more for me this week.

numberFire concurs with Jaguars -8.5. Per their game projections, Jacksonville is estimated to win by a score of 30.35-18.52.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: GB -1.5
• Moneyline: NO +104/GB -122
• Total: 42.5

Quietly, I think the New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers can be one of the best football showings of the week.

Who Dat has started the season 2-0 for the first time since 2013 when Sean Payton and a 34-year-old Drew Brees were still running the show. The Pack is also at a turning of the tide; quarterback Jordan Love has played with poise and precision through two games.

I'll preface by exclaiming that this contest could go either way, but I do believe the defense in NOLA has not gotten their due respect. Keep in mind: this team is tops among the NFC South odds market at FanDuel Sportsbook (+135).

When looking through their ranks at each level, there is both talent and flexibility. Veteran All-Pros Tyrann Mathieu and Marshon Lattimore lead the secondary while studs Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis anchor the front seven. The unit is allowing just 16.0 points per game this year, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.

For Love, this will be the best defense he has faced in his short NFL career. It will also be his first home opener as the starting quarterback at Lambeau Field. He's played with confidence thus far, throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions.

Additionally, he might be aided by the return of receiver Christian Watson. Having been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the young wideout is looking to make his season debut this weekend.

Best Bet: Saints ML (+104)

The marquee matchup in this one will be Green Bay's offense against NOLA's defense, but what can we expect when Derek Carr goes at the Packers' D? He has been good -- not great -- in 2023 with an 80.2 rating, utilizing his talented core of skill players. Ultimately, I think it is that group that can make the difference in this one, though.

It is still September, so don't expect the quintessential frozen tundra at Lambeau on Sunday (temperatures are forecasted around 80 degrees). That means the passing game should be uninhibited. If can Carr can build momentum early with dynamic options like Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill, the Saints will be strong.

With a full-team effort, I genuinely think New Orleans is in a favorable spot for a road upset. Underdogs have been a factor so far this season, winning SU at a noticeable 39.4% clip. With a stingy defense and timely offense, NOLA can add to that rate. I am on the Saints to stay undefeated for another week.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

• Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: DAL -12.5
• Moneyline: DAL -720/ARI +520
• Total: 42.5 (-115/-105)

The Dallas Cowboys have come firing out of the gate in 2023, especially on defense. Many around the football community have Dallas pegged as the best team through two weeks. numberFire's NFL power rankings support this, showing the top nERD rating so far for the Cowboys.

When reflecting that same scale on their next opponent -- the Arizona Cardinals --- the score is not so favorable. The Cards are down at 27th.

Simply, this contest could get ugly. Arizona's offense is still run by Joshua Dobbs at quarterback while Kyler Murray rehabilitates from last year's ACL injury. Dobbs has been mostly lackluster in 2023, averaging just 5.9 yards per attempt. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried for them with a booming Cowboy defense coming to town.

Dallas is 2-0 SU and ATS. Frankly, their opponents from New York have not stood much of a chance in either prior bid this year. Against the New York Jets and Giants collectively, Dallas is allowing just 5.0 points per game. In two contests, they have surrendered fewer than 400 total yards (386) of offense.

Of course, Micah Parsons has been leading the way. Already, he's done well to collect three sacks and a forced fumble this season.

Best Bet: Cowboys -12.5

These sides are on opposite ends of the NFL spectrum right now.

Yes, the Cowboys are dealing with the loss of All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL, but their defense is still loaded at most positions. Right now, Dallas has the fiercest front seven in the league, giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Along with Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch have been key contributors to that suffocating figure.

I'm not sure which aspect of Arizona's roster can thrive against Dallas this weekend.

Even with Diggs likely out for the year, former DPOY Stephon Gilmore can slide into the No. 1 corner role. On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott has been efficient behind a completion clip of 71%. More importantly, Prescott has no turnovers in 2023 yet. If he and the offense can continue to take care of the football, I don't see a way the Cards can keep them from covering.

Dallas has won by an average margin of 30 points this season. I think they win by two or more touchdowns this weekend in Glendale.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.