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NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

Annie Nader
Annie Nader•@ANader33

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NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

We are down to the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, and Week 17 should be a doozy.

The playoff landscape is starting to solidify, but much is still up in the air. Six teams have already clinched a playoff berth: the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers. The Lions and 49ers are the only two teams that have clinched their respective divisions.

On the other hand, there are eight teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention: the New York Jets, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, and Arizona Cardinals.

This leaves us with 18 teams still vying for a chance at the playoffs, though some teams' hopes are much more legitimate than others.

With that, let's take a look at the Week 17 Sunday main slate games and investigate where value can be had.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

Sunday's Main Slate

NFL Week 17 Matchups: Sunday Main Slate
Kickoff Time (ET)
Favorite
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills1:00 p.m.BUF
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears1:00 p.m.CHI
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts1:00 p.m.IND
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants1:00 p.m.LAR
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles1:00 p.m.PHI
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers1:00 p.m.TB
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders1:00 p.m.SF

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Spread: LAR -5.5 (-108)
  • Moneyline: NYG +190/LAR -230
  • Total: 44.5 (-115/-105)

The Los Angeles Rams (8-7) will make the trek to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (5-10). The Rams have won five of their last six games with the lone loss coming at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens.

Meanwhile, in New York, the Tommy DeVito era has come to a close. Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the G-Men this week, and it's fair to say he earned the starting gig. Taylor's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back stands at +0.09, whereas Devito ended his 2023 stint with a -0.16 Passing NEP per drop back.

But, while Taylor is an upgrade over DeVito, we still shouldn't expect much from this 30th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense (per numberFire) -- at least in comparison to what the Rams have been up to as of late.

LA is averaging 32.4 points per game across their last five, and we can't brag about this Giants defense. Save for a game against Mac Jones and the Pats, the Giants have allowed opponents to put an average of 29.5 points on the board across their last six.

The Rams are vying for an NFC Wild Card spot and currently tout -230 playoff odds.

Best Bet: Rams -5.5 (-108)

I'm high on the Rams at the moment. Their now eighth-ranked scheduled-adjusted offense (per numberFire) has really come together in the final weeks of this season. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are trading off, and sometimes even sharing, 100-plus yard outings.

Kyren Williams has a higher Rushing NEP than any other running back in the league, and Matthew Stafford has the sixth-best Passing NEP among QBs. Their offense should go off against a Giants D that has been vulnerable.

This season, the Rams are 8-5-2 against the spread, and the Giants are 5-9-1. I think siding with the Rams is the way to go.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: BAL -3.5 (-102)
  • Moneyline: MIA +142/BAL -168
  • Total: 46.5

The tightest spread on the Sunday main slate belongs to a Dolphins-Ravens matchup, and perhaps this contest could be a preview of the 2024 AFC Championship game.

Both teams have clinched a playoff berth and will now look to claim their respective division titles.

If Miami drops this game, and the Buffalo Bills capitalize on their status as the 13.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots this Sunday, then the highly-coveted AFC East will come down to an exciting Week 18 matchup between the two squads.

The Ravens are off the heels of a Christmas Day statement victory over the 49ers. Baltimore has lost just one game at their home stadium this season, but we should expect both squads to come out firing on all cylinders.

Best Bet: Over 46.5 (-110)

Baltimore's second-ranked schedule-adjusted defense is scary, but they did let an eighth-ranked Rams offense get off 31 points just three weeks ago and will now face a fourth-ranked Miami offense.

The Dolphins have a fourth-ranked D, but in four games against teams that rank in the top 10 of numberFire's offensive rating, they have let up an average of 30.0 points. Look for this to continue against a red-hot Lamar Jackson, who has led his team to average 31.6 points at home.

Miami's injury report isn't clean, but Raheem Mostert is expected to play, and there's hope for Jaylen Waddle, too.

The close spread should interest us. In Miami games that have been decided by six points or fewer, the average game total stands at 55.7 points. In Baltimore games that have been decided by six points or fewer, the average game total stands at 56.0 points. I'll be taking the over.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: DEN -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: LAC +152/DEN -180
  • Total: 37.5 (-105/-115)

This week, the Denver Broncos waved the white flag on Russell Wilson, benching him for the remainder of the season in an effort to preserve financial flexibility.

Jarrett Stidham will get the start in place of Wilson. He'll be going up against a 30th-ranked Chargers pass defense, but I don't know how much we can expect from a QB who has yet to take a snap this season, especially if Courtland Sutton (concussion) is ruled out for this contest.

The Chargers slightly bounced back from a humiliating 63-21 rout at the hands of the Las Vegas Raiders by keeping last week's game against the Bills within two points.

Easton Stick has been meh, but he has plenty of decent offensive targets to work with. Stick will go up against a Broncos D that just allowed Bailey Zappe to walk away with a win and a 75.8% completion percentage.

Chargers Moneyline (+156)

Denver's benching of Wilson, despite the team still technically having playoff hopes, speaks volumes.

Los Angeles has forced the second-most fumbles this season, and despite their weak defense, we have no reason to trust Stidham. He could be a major turnover candidate in this one.

Look for Austin Ekeler and the L.A. backs to have big games against a Broncos rush D that ranks 28th in the NFL. Though a seemingly meaningless, late-season game could be a bit of a crapshoot, I'll take plus-money to side with a Chargers team that showed glimpses of virility in Week 16.


Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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