NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

In an 18-week schedule, NFL Week 14 can be looked at as the beginning of the end.

With four to five games left to play for all teams, only one side has been officially eliminated from postseason contention: the Carolina Panthers. For now, everything else remains fluid.

Upcoming, the NFC East clash on Sunday Night Football will likely draw the most eyes and dollars in the betting market. Entering the weekend, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Dallas Cowboys favored at home by 3.5 points over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Earlier on Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams will head east for a meeting with the Baltimore Ravens. Atop the AFC North standings, Baltimore is a Super Bowl hopeful -- fourth-best title odds, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- while in the NFC, the Rams have bashed into the playoff picture.

In the afternoon window, I am thoroughly excited for a showdown at Arrowhead between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. K.C. has alternated wins and losses over the past six weeks, and Buffalo's postseason chances appear to be on life support. It's a big game for both.

Let's dive into the odds and lines for this weekend with an emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets for Sunday.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (12/10/23)

Sunday's Full Slate

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Spread: BAL -7.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: LAR +290/BAL -360
• Total: 40.5 (-105/-115)

Quietly, the cross-country showdown between the Rams (6-6) and Ravens (9-3) could be the most exciting non-primetime game of Week 14. Firing off with the first wave of games, the surging Rams will put their three-game winning streak on the line against a very stout Baltimore team. For Los Angeles, this will be their first trip of 2023 to the East Coast.

The Ravens might be the most complete team in the AFC; FanDuel Sportsbook has them listed as the second-favorite to win the conference. Baltimore's defense currently ranks first in scoring (15.6 PPG against) and second in total yards allowed (273.9), while the Lamar Jackson-led offense is producing 27.0 PPG at the moment. With Baltimore coming off of a bye, will the Ravens get right back to work in their second straight game against a team from Los Angeles?

Behind revamped play from quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Rams are back in playoff contention. Their past six games have featured a three-game losing streak followed by their current three-game heater. In those three victories, Stafford has tossed eight touchdowns to just two interceptions, sustaining only one sack -- LA is also scoring 30.0 PPG over that stretch.

I am not expecting an upset for this bid in Baltimore, but I think there is a chance Los Angeles (+7.5) can keep it closer than the line presents. Still, I have more confidence in a play on the combined total of 40.5 (which has dropped two points from 42.5 since Monday).

Best Bet: Over 40.5 (-105)

With All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews out, Jackson will be without his favorite target. However, the Ravens have much more help on offense in 2023, such as rookie receiver Zay Flowers (58 catches) and veteran Odell Beckham (15.1 yards per reception). Still, Jackson will need to play this weekend -- he missed Thursday's practice with an illness but returned Friday.

On the other side, Stafford and the Rams have proven their offense is up to task, as well. It will be a tough challenge against Baltimore, but receivers Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell are a dynamic group. Additionally, any rain in the area is expected to clear by kick-off, so passing attacks should be operating well.

At numberFire, the game projections yield a projected 27.12-23.65 score in favor of the Ravens. That equates to a point sum of 50.77. With a double-digit cushion against 40.5, and faith that Lamar will play, I am going for an over in Baltimore.

Houston Texans at New York Jets

• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: HOU -3.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: HOU -198/NYJ +166
• Total: 33.5 (-105/-115)

As many times as the New York Jets have played on primetime in 2023 (five games with one more to go), I think we are all well aware of their current struggles. Despite tremendous offseason hype, New York has played to a 4-8 mark overall thus far, which also features a 4-7-1 record against the spread (ATS). With Zach Wilson taking over starting quarterback duties for the first time since Week 11, how will the third-year signal-caller fare this time?

Ironically, the Houston Texans entered the current campaign with very modest hopes only to now find themselves solidly in playoff contention. With a shot at winning the AFC South (five-to-one odds), the 7-5 Texans have been led by rookie phenom C.J. Stroud, who currently sports the best mark in the NFL at 295.0 passing yards per game. To complement, Houston's defense has been stingy (20.8 PPG allowed).

Jets head coach Robert Saleh is hoping Wilson's reinsertion can help put the brakes on the Jets' five-game losing streak; Gang Green has not won a game since before Halloween. For the Texans, they have won five of their past seven. Not sure if I'm missing something here, but I don't think the J-E-T-S can hang with the young team from H-town.

Best Bet: Texans -3.5 (-115)

The Texans are rightfully favored in this AFC clash, but the line of 3.5 feels rather low, even for a road team. In 2023, Houston has been a stellar offensive side, showing top marks in both scoring (23.4 PPG/10th) and yard production (373.1 YPG/6th). For the Jets, points have been much tougher to come by -- New York's current scoring clip of 14.3 PPG lands 30th.

Since the beginning of November, Houston has hit the gas pedal. Through five contests in that span, they've ramped up to 26.6 PPG. Across the field, NYJ's offense has not produced multiple touchdowns in a game dating back to October 8th versus the Denver Broncos.

It's always a little scary to take a rookie on the road, especially versus a stout D, but I don't mind taking that risk with the Texans. Simply, give me Houston ATS.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Spread: KC -1.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: BUF +100/-118
• Total: 48.5 (-115/-105)

As alluded to in the introduction, the Chiefs will host the Bills in what should be another entertaining gridiron affair. Notably, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have already produced some of the top head-to-head battles of recent years, including twice in the postseason (2020, 2021).

Despite being in separate AFC divisions, this will be the sixth meeting between Buffalo and K.C. since the start of the decade. Through that recent span, the Chiefs hold the upper hand at 3-2, winning both of the postseason clashes. With home-field advantage, can Kansas City come out on top?

Neither side seems to be at their best in the current year. Buffalo is 6-6 right now, while K.C. is 8-4 after alternating results for the past six weeks. Still, the Bills will arrive at Arrowhead Stadium after a needed bye week. Both teams are looking to get back in the win column after losing their last times out.

Best Bet: Chiefs Moneyline (-118)

Perhaps not displaying their best in this current moment, the Chiefs still seem to be operating more consistently than Buffalo is. Undoubtedly, the Bills have talent, but no single unit has been dominant for them. Allen has played better of late, but his 13 interceptions are second most in the league this year. Against K.C. this weekend, the Bills will go against the best defense they've seen thus far.

Flipping the narrative, Kansas City's defense has been the perpetuator the their success in 2023. Through a dozen contests, the Chiefs have given up only 17.3 PPG, which is the NFL's third-best rate right now. From there, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 65 yards per game.

With Kansas City at a short moneyline number of -118, I love the Chiefs at home this Sunday afternoon. Since Mahomes took over the starting job in 2018, Kansas City has played to a masterful 46-13 (.780) record at Arrowhead.

No sense playing the spread with Kansas City with the moneyline at this kind of number -- I am on the Chiefs straight up. Keep in mind, K.C. is still top three within the Super Bowl odds market (+550).

If you're interested in making a parlay bet, the Sunday Funday Same Game Parlay 25% Profit Boost is eligible for any Week 14 NFL game on Sunday (12/10), and your boost can be applied to any SGP/SGP+ wager of three or more legs. For all stipulations, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's website.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.