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NFL Week 10 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 10's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
Last updated Tuesday at 3:09 pm Eastern.
NFL Week 10 Predictions
Raiders at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -7.8
Total Prediction: 44.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Falcons vs. Colts Prediction
Spread Prediction: Colts -5.5
Total Prediction: 49.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jaguars at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -1.0
Total Prediction: 40.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Currently projecting both C.J. Stroud and Brian Thomas Jr. as out and still showing value in the over. I'd bet both sit, but with the potential for my projections to go up should one of them play, I'm willing to snag the over now.
Giants at Bears Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bears -3.8
Total Prediction: 45.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The value in the under is being driven by forecasted 17 mph winds in Chicago. If that goes down to 10, my total projection would go up more than. a point. Thus, I want to hold off on betting this until we're closer to the gameday forecast.
Ravens at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -4.1
Total Prediction: 50.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings' offense looked a lot better with a healthy offensive line, J.J. McCarthy, and Jordan Addison in Week 9, the first time we've seen that group together all year. After giving them a slight boost, I'm willing to take the value I'm seeing in the over.
Browns at Jets Prediction
Spread Prediction: Jets -2.8
Total Prediction: 37.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Locked in the New York Jets -1.5 before Tuesday's firesale. Oops! Still showing value in them after the downgrades, but it suuuuuure don't feel great.
Saints at Panthers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Panthers -4.4
Total Prediction: 40.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bills at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -9.8
Total Prediction: 51.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Patriots at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bucs -1.2
Total Prediction: 44.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I've already given the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense a slight boost for the potential return of Luke Goedeke, and they may get another if we get confirmation that Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving are good to go. I'm still willing to bet the under, but that keeps me away from backing the New England Patriots.
Cardinals at Seahawks Prediction
Spread Prediction: Seahawks -6.8
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This Seattle Seahawks offense is shredding, and the Arizona Cardinals' offense seems to be figuring things out. Thus, I do like the over here.
Rams at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -4.2
Total Prediction: 49.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Projecting Mac Jones to start as of now.
Lions at Commanders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -7.6
Total Prediction: 50.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Steelers at Chargers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -3.1
Total Prediction: 47.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Eagles at Packers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -3.9
Total Prediction: 51.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: My biggest disagreement with the market is on this total. I just can't get a total this low when it's two offenses as efficient as these.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
