NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3: Kansas City and Jacksonville Are Among the Standouts

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 3.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3

Kansas City Chiefs

We have a handful of very big favorites this week -- five teams favored by at least 8.5 points -- and that should keep any one team from being a super popular survivor pick.

Going by the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Kansas City Chiefs are the week's largest favorite, as they're a laughable -770 to win at home against the Chicago Bears. The -770 line implies win odds of 88.5%, and KC is a 13.5-point favorite.

Chicago came into the year with some positive buzz, but they're been a wreck through two weeks. While Kansas City hasn't flashed its usual high-flying offense yet in 2023, Chicago's defense presents a dream get-right spot. Oddsmakers clearly expect KC to overpower the Bears.

While you probably want to save KC, and there are other quality plays this week, the Chiefs are the top option.

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are -720 favorites at the Arizona Cardinals, making them the second-biggest Week 3 favorite. It's rare to see a road team favored by that much in the NFL, but it's fully warranted.

To be fair to the Cards, they've shown a lot of fight through two weeks, suffering a pair of hard-fought losses. Arizona, though, hasn't played anyone on Dallas' level, and the Cowboys are rolling right now, especially on defense.

It's always a little unsettling to lock in a road team as your pick -- I get it. But Dallas is a 12.5-point favorite and should cruise past the Cardinals on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers

Per the betting odds, Dallas and KC are in their own tier this week, but I'd put the San Francisco 49ers in that tier, too, even if the betting odds say they're a bit behind.

The 49ers are a whopping -560 to win at home Thursday against the New York Giants. The -560 number implies win odds of 84.8%.

The Giants have played four halves of football this season and have looked absolutely dreadful in three of them. In the other one, they were lights out, but that came against the lowly Cardinals. The 49ers are very much not the Cardinals and might be the best team in the NFL.

Big Blue will also be sans Saquon Barkley, their top offensive weapon. Plus, it's a short week for them with back-to-back road games, and they're staying out west for it after their win in the desert.

Everything points toward a Niners win. If you're looking for a reason to not pick San Fran, there are two.

Per numberFire's survivor matrix, San Fran is projected to be the week's chalk pick. Plus, numberFire's model gives Big Blue a much better shot than oddsmakers do, putting the 49ers' win odds at just 69.6%.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Two staples of this article this season will be the team playing the Cards and the team facing the Houston Texans. We've already checked the Arizona box, and now we're on to the Houston box.

The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Texans in Week 3. Jacksonville is a -405 favorite. Most weeks, that would make the Jags an obvious survivor pick. That's not really the case in Week 3 as we have three other teams that are meaningfully bigger favorites, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Still, the Jaguars make a lot of sense and are 9.5-point favorites. According to numberFire's model, Jacksonville also has the top win odds of the week (83.8%). If you're trying to save the elite teams, Jacksonville is the way to go this week.

Contrarian Play

Looking to avoid the most popular picks and find an under-the-radar selection for the week?

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are 2-0 and just got a huge road win over the Cincinnati Bengals. In Week 3, the Ravens are at home against an Indianapolis Colts team that may be without its starting quarterback.

Despite all that, the Ravens are likely to fly under the survivor radar this week because of the four massive favorites we just ran through. That makes them an intriguing pick -- albeit a somewhat risky one.

While everything I said in the first paragraph of this section is true, the Ravens are only -375 on the moneyline as well as 8.5-point favorites. That's obviously a lopsided line, but it's not nearly as much as some other games this week.

Whoever the Colts turn to at quarterback will be a decent option. Rookie Anthony Richardson has looked good thus far while Gardner Minshew is a capable backup. However, Indy is still facing a very tall task on Sunday to win in Baltimore.

There's an element of fun in picking the Ravens -- the team with the third-best win odds (78.9%), per numberFire -- as it allows you to lock in a big favorite, save teams like San Fran and KC, and then root for chaos everywhere else.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your