NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3: Injuries Ease Decisions After Historically Difficult Start

If you have survived these first two weeks, you have a golden opportunity to do real damage in a survivor pool this year. Most of us are out as several top options from the first two weeks lost outright. How can you stay afloat this time?

NFL survivor pools are an interesting way to have some fun during the season, and this weekly article is here to help you stay alive deep into the season.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 3.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3

Best Picks

San Francisco 49ers

Injuries have pathed the way for more decided outcomes after Week 3 in what has been a truly historic tough start to survivor pools. If you're somehow still alive, you made the right pivots. Now here come a few easier decisions.

Frankly, the San Francisco 49ers are this week's easiest square to like. Most won't take many "road" teams in pools, but the Niners regularly sell out SoFi Stadium in their colors, and there isn't a much better time to play the Los Angeles Rams. Cooper Kupp and safety John Johnson joined the league's longest injured reserve list after Week 2, giving Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay few buttons to push to compete with this year's preseason Super Bowl odds-on favorite.

It also helps that San Fran enters with a bit of a sting in the tail after a more lopsided loss in Minneapolis than Week 2's 23-17 score would suggest. The NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook give the 49ers a 73.8% chance to win this week, and numberFire's survivor matrix doesn't believe they'll be a popular pick (3.8% pick rate) with others in soft home matchups.

Cincinnati Bengals

This is kind of what the Cincinnati Bengals do, right?

For the fourth time in five years amidst the Joe Burrow era, they've started 0-2. This is usually an amazing spot to buy the dip, though. In Week 3 of those seasons, the Bengals are 2-0-1 straight up (SU) with a total point differential of +18.

Many of those opponents were also stronger than the Washington Commanders, who have yet to complete a touchdown pass and rank as numberFire's second-worst overall defense.

There is a bit of a matchup concern here when Washington's rushing offense (3rd) has performed so well compared to Cincinnati's rush defense (21st), but it sounds like Tee Higgins is trending in the right direction to potentially torch this secondary and thrust Jayden Daniels into a negative script.

With an adjusted win rate of 61.6%, the Stripes are one of nF's favorite survivor picks, but they are visiting the Panthers, Giants, and Tennessee Titans down the road, so there could be upside to holding onto them if you don't mind an unfavorable venue.

New York Jets

Nothing can sour the mood like a lost survivor pool on Thursday, but the New York Jets are a modest buy-low spot with similar concerns as Cleveland.

A top-five defense in N.Y. a year ago is currently ranked as numberFire's seventh-worst unit. It'll require some trust that Robert Saleh's unit can figure it out against numberFire's 17th-ranked offense at present, the New England Patriots.

This is the first short week ever for new head coach Jerod Mayo, though. Plus, New England's offense is incredibly one-dimensional with the eighth-highest rush rate over expectation (9.1%) to this point, per FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula.

The Jets are actually numberFire's favorite survivor pick this week because of a hefty win projection (69.4%) with an incredibly low pick rate (3.9%). While likely going elsewhere myself, I do believe this is a good spot to fade a Patriots squad that is 2-0 against the spread (ATS) and starting to show signs of leaking after a start better than anyone imagined.

Digging Deeper

Do you want -- or need -- to use other squads than the teams listed above? Here are some other options.

Las Vegas Raiders

The chalkiest picks on the board have been a death sentence thus far, and what could possibly go wrong with numberFire expecting over 54.0% of projected players expected to choose between the Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend? Neither team had a win total north of 7.5 before the season.

Las Vegas draws the hapless Carolina Panthers at home, who have a real shot at 0-17 as numberFire's worst offense and third-worst defense to this stage. The problem? Carolina is flipping to veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback in Week 3, and Dalton could provide stability that Bryce Young couldn't. In his lone 2023 start, Dalton threw for 361 passing yards and posted 0.02 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db).

Meanwhile, a Raiders team we expected to be led by defense is 11th-best in that regard in nF's current rankings -- but a good bit away from elite.

Vegas is 6th in numberFire's adjusted win probability survivor rankings due to popularity, and Tampa Bay (15th) is way down the board, as well. With all the upsets we've seen so far, it could be foolish to have survived them and lose buying into Gardner Minshew or Baker Mayfield's successful small samples on teams we thought wouldn't be great.

Cleveland Browns

Picking on the New York Giants with a good home team is never a bad idea. It just remains to be seen if the Cleveland Browns fit that description.

Cleveland gutted out an 18-13 win on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, but numberFire is a bit concerned about its top-ranked defense a year ago through two weeks. The Browns are currently 15th in that category, leaning a bit more on Deshaun Watson than anyone in the Dawg Pound would hope.

Oddsmakers are still optimistic that the Giants, who became the first team ever to lose with three touchdowns scored to their opponents' zero, will lose again this week. They're assigning a 73.7% chance Cleveland wins -- with which numberFire (70.8%) largely agrees.

Forecasted for an 8.8% pick rate by nF, the Browns aren't the chalkiest option this week, and there might not be a better time to use them should they end up faltering down the stretch in a brutal division.

Seattle Seahawks

If not for the Rams, the Miami Dolphins would be the NFL's most significantly warped team due to injury.

Tua Tagovailoa certainly won't play this week after sustaining a concussion last Thursday, thrusting Skylar Thompson back into duty after -0.55 EPA/db in Week 2. He also posted -0.34 EPA/db in 2022 action. Thompson is a pretty rough quarterback to have in the saddle this early, and the Dolphins' 17th-ranked defense (by nF) probably isn't an amazing unit to carry them to wins.

That broke the right way at the right time for the Seattle Seahawks, who aren't a surprise to be 2-0 due to schedule. They're numberFire's 12th-ranked team to this point as Mike Macdonald has turned their defense -- a bottom-five unit a year ago -- around in considerable fashion.

Miami's skill pieces are still pretty awesome, and I've got my mind on the Seahawks' pending date with the L.A. Rams in Week 7, but I couldn't blame anyone for pivoting to the Seahawks in Week 3. They're only numberFire's ninth-most popular projected pick (2.9% rate) against an atrocious signal-caller.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your