There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 18.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 18

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
  • The Lions enter the final week of the NFL regular season with a 79.0% probability to cap their year off with 12 wins, though I'd be wary of siding with them in your survivor pool. Coach Dan Campbell stated that he plans to play his starters this Sunday. However, the only avenue in which Detroit could alter their current playoff position is if both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles lose this weekend. With the NFC East up for grabs and cushy matchups in store for both the Cowboys and Birds, it seems out of the realm for both these teams to drop their contests. Detroit comes in as just 3.0-point favorites against the Vikings.
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
  • With the NFC East on the line, Dallas will be granted a matchup against a Commanders team that is by numberFire's standards the third-worst team in the NFL. A win over Washington would secure the NFC East for Dallas. The Cowboys are undefeated on their home turf this season, and while they'll be visitors this weekend, the division title would promise playoff home-field advantage up until a theoretical NFC Championship game. They are a slate-high 13.5-point favorites against the Commanders this Sunday. If you have Dallas on your board, use them.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
  • With a Week 18 win, the Bucs would claim the NFC South crown. Luckily for Tampa Bay fans, the Bucs have a date with the worst team in football. The Panthers (2-14) were shut out by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week and will look to be put out of their misery once and for all this Sunday. Although Tampa Bay dropped an important Week 17 game, their offense is booming and should have no trouble putting up points against a 30th-ranked schedule-adjusted Carolina D. If Dallas isn't on your board, the Bucs might be the next best move.
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
  • Through the first 11 weeks of the NFL season, the Eagles touted the best record in football, but the Birds have been sputtering ever since, losing four of their last five and hardly holding on to division title hopes. However, since Dallas and Philadelphia's games this weekend kick off at the same time (4:25 p.m. ET), the Eagles can't take their foot off the gas pedal. I'll side with the Week 17 survivor pick spoilers (week-high 22.14% pick rate) over a 21st-ranked schedule-adjusted Giants D.
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
  • The 49ers have already clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, meaning the outcome of Sunday's game will have no bearing on the playoffs for SF. Christian McCaffrey will sit out this weekend and could be one of a few key 49ers to miss this one. Add in that the Rams have won six of their last seven, and this game seems anything but cut and dry -- but San Francisco probably isn't on your board entering the final week of the season, anyway.

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jacksonville Jaguars lose this weekend, not only will they surrender the AFC South, but they could even lose out on the playoffs altogether.

This game couldn't be more paramount for the Jags. And though Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is marked as day-to-day, I still think we can trust Jacksonville to come out on top against the Tennessee Titans.

In a Week 11 matchup between these two squads, the Jaguars walked away with a 34-14 victory.

I think we'll see the Jags 13th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense limit Will Levis and company once again. The Titans are averaging just 12.0 points across their last three games while the Jags D is coming off a shutout performance against the Panthers.

Jacksonville is allowing the fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. The Titans offense is converting on third downs at the fifth-worst rate. Look for this along with the turnover battle; the Jags have forced the seventh-most (tied) turnovers while the Titans have forced the second-fewest -- to play into Jacksonville's favor on Sunday.

If Lawrence is unable to suit up, C.J. Beathard will be under center. Beathard touts a better completion percentage (75.5%) than Lawrence (65.5%) this season, granted our sample for Beathard is much more limited.

But further evidence shows that these two are closer in performance than their name recognition may indicate. The two QBs have almost identical Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back markers -- Lawrence with 0.04 and Beathard with 0.03. This is not at all to say that the Jags are better off with Beathard, but it does show he could be trusted to perform against a 24th-ranked schedule-adjusted Tennessee defense.

The Jaguars are favored by 5.5 points this Sunday, making them a decent last-ditch effort survivor pick.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your