NFL Survivor Picks for Week 17: Will the Browns Roll Past the Jets?

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 17.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 17

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
  • With a Week 17 Bills win and Dolphins loss, the AFC East title would come down to a Week 18 battle between the two Super Bowl contenders. Luckily for Buffalo, they tout a week-high 87.13% win probability and are meaty 11.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots this Sunday. The Bills have won impressive games in the final quarter of this season and are historically dominant at Highmark Stadium. But Bailey Zappe has been playing like someone desperate to earn a starting spot, and the Pats D is among the best in the biz. In what could likely be Bill Belichick's final hurrah in this Patriots-Bills rivalry, there's stuff to be wary about when siding with the Bills, but we should still expect Buffalo's defense to give Zappe a very hard time.
• Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
  • We're in for a Joe Flacco revenge game at MetLife Stadium this Thursday night. The Browns first-ranked defense, per numberFire, shouldn't run into many issues silencing the Jets, and though Flacco has thrown a towering seven interceptions in December, he's also thrown for 10 touchdowns and 1,307 yards in that span. The Flacco-backed Browns are averaging 26.5 points per game. This should be a messy and fun game, and we should expect Cleveland's 78.41% win probability to hold up in the court of law.
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
  • The Birds will play at home against the worst-ranked defense in the NFL. There's not much more to say here. Yes, their league-best record has been dethroned by the Baltimore Ravens, but Philadelphia's recent three-game losing streak came against reputable teams (Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks). Arizona has allowed an average of 37.0 points across their last two, handing the Eagles a 28.5 implied team total on Sunday and a week-high 25.0% survivor pick rate, per Yahoo.
• Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants
  • The Rams have been a survivor pick darling as of late and will now get a shot at a Giants team that has yet to name a starting quarterback for Sunday. The Giants have the second-worst-ranked defense in the league and should get lit up by an LA team that is putting 32.4 points on the board across their last five games. The Rams are making quite the run for an NFC Wild Card spot, and I want to be on their side while they do so.
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
  • The Chiefs have given us few reasons to be high on them as of late, and now they'll face a Bengals team that has won three of their last four and could grab a playoff spot, even without Joe Burrow. But Cincy has a bottom-tier pass defense, and we can't let recent play rule our opinions on Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. However, Isiah Pacheco (head) left Monday's game in concussion protocol -- I won't feel particularly comfortable with this offense if Pacheco is ruled out for Week 17.

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here is another option.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have dropped four straight games and have lost just about all their momentum in the AFC South standings. The injury report has been intermittently brutal to Trevor Lawrence. Although he's started every game this season, he once again finds himself with a questionable status due to a right shoulder injury.

But while Lawrence's status doesn't look promising, he hasn't been playing well enough (19 touchdowns to 12 interceptions this year) for me to hold out on word before siding with the Jags to come out on top against the Carolina Panthers this week.

The Panthers have just a pair of wins to their name this season and have yet to win a game on the road. They made things interesting against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday but still come into this week with a 29th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense and 27th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense, putting them in the bottom spot of numberFire's power rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, sit prettier at the 18th spot.

And while it hasn't been sunny in Jacksonville lately, they aren't losing games to poor competition. All seven of their losses have come against teams that currently tout a winning record.

Look for Jacksonville's pass defense to present some issues for Bryce Young and company. The Jags force the 11th-most incompletions per game, and the Panthers record the third-most incompletions per game. I'd also expect the Jags to win the turnover battle on Sunday. Jacksonville has forced 25 takeaways this season (tied for second-most), while Carolina has forced just 11 takeaways (fewest).

C.J. Beathard will likely be under center if Lawrence is ruled out. Though we can't trust Beathard more than Lawrence, the Panthers do force the third-lowest sack percentage in the league, so Beathard should have some room to breathe if he starts.

With the AFC East title on the line, this game is a must-win for the Jags. They enter Sunday as the 7.0-point home favorites, and numberFire is giving them a 70.43% win probability. All things considered, they should be a great survivor pick for Week 17.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your