There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 15.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 15

These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders
  • For the first time this season, the Rams (6-7) enter a week with the highest win probability (83.4%). They'll get a home matchup against a Commanders (4-9) team that has dropped nine of their last 11 games. According to numberFire's power rankings, the Rams are the 10th-best team, while Washington falls far behind at the 31st spot. The Commanders come in with a negative 134-point differential (second-worst) while the Rams tout a positive point differential of +9. Los Angeles has put 104 points on the board across their last three games and will now get a chance against the worst-ranked D in the league, making the Rams the fan-favorite for survivor pools this week with a 20.9% pick rate (via Yahoo).
• Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
  • The Dolphins (9-4) put on a disappointing display in Monday night's upset loss to the Tennessee Titans. This defeat, and the fact that they've yet to beat a team that would make the playoffs if we put our pencils down today, calls into question the legitimacy of a Miami playoff run. Zach Wilson and the Jets put on an unlikely clinic against the Houston Texans on Sunday, and New York's fourth-ranked D could abate Miami's powerhouse offense. But while this matchup is trending toward being more competitive than previously assumed, the Dolphins still tout an 83.4% win probability, per numberFire. And if you've yet to give the 'Fins a nod as a survivor pick, now is the time to do so -- their remaining matchups following this one feature the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, and Buffalo Bills.
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
  • San Francisco's 75.3% win probability this week might be shortchanging the Niners. They've won five straight games with a 19.4-point average margin of victory. The Cardinals (3-10) have pulled off a pair of surprise wins this season (Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys), but SF's first-ranked offense and fifth-ranked defense should have no problem getting past Arizona's 26th-ranked offense and 31st-ranked D. The Niners have an upcoming date with the Commanders, but Brock Purdy and company have already clinched a playoff berth and could grab the NFC West title with a win this Sunday.
• New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants
  • The Saints (6-7) are the 6.0-point home favorite against Tommy DeVito and the Giants this Sunday. DeVito shined in Monday night's win against the Green Bay Packers, and the G-Men are riding the wave of a three-game winning streak. Granted, two of these Ws came against a pair of the worst teams in the league (New England Patriots, Washington Commanders), and the Saints' eighth-best defense will pose a new challenge for DeVito. The Giants hold the eighth-worst third-down conversion percentage over their last three games, and the Saints are allowing third-down conversions at the 10th-lowest rate. While it's neither as fun nor safe to bet against the Giants these days, I do think it's fair to give New Orleans the edge in this one -- but maybe not to the tune of a 72.5% win probability.
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
  • The Falcons (6-7) are finally on deck as a legitimate survivor option. They'll go up against the Panthers (1-12), a matchup that resulted in a 24-10 Atlanta victory in Week 1. While the Falcons don't instill much faith, it's hard to make a case for the Panthers to win, period. They come into Week 15 with a 31st-ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense, and the head coaching change has put little to no pep in their step. Atlanta's ninth-ranked D could hold Carolina to as few points as the Saints did last week (six), and though they are only favored by three points, Atlanta is likely still on your survivor board this late into the season. The Falcons have a 16.42% pick rate this week (fourth-highest).

Digging Deeper

Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.

Cleveland Browns

The aforementioned teams have a combined 67.18% pick rate this week. Pair that with the Kansas City Chiefs (19.4%), who should sail past the New England Patriots in a game that was kicked out of a primetime slot, and 86.58% of picks are accounted for.

The Rams and Falcons are the best under-the-radar options, while the Chiefs, Niners, and Dolphins are great teams with milder matchups. But if you've exhausted the above options, the Cleveland Browns (8-5) may be worth a look against the Chicago Bears (5-8).

Joe Flacco has yet again reintroduced himself to the league, taking over signal-calling duties for Cleveland. He threw for 311 yards and a trio of touchdowns in last week's win against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Bears are starting to turn their season around, albeit too late, winning three of their last four, including a statement 15-point victory against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. While Chicago has momentum, things won't look as pretty against Cleveland's second-ranked D.

Cleveland's main issue has been a lack of consistent production on offense, but Flacco has helped put 50 points on the board over his two starts. If he and the Browns' offense can come out similarly this Sunday, I like their chances against the Bears.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your