NFL Survivor Picks for Week 12: Are the Vikings The Best Remaining Option?
There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.
Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 12.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 12
These are the top five teams by expected win probability, according to numberFire's model. All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
- The highest win probability for Week 12 belongs to none other than the Dallas Cowboys. They enter Thursday as the 10.5-point favorites over Week 11's spoiler survivor pick, the Commanders (week-high 33.3% pick rate in Sunday's loss against the New York Giants). Dallas holds the top spot on numberFire's power rankings, while Washington sits way back at the 26th spot. There's rarely a bad time to side with the Cowboys -- their win probability exceeds 80.0% for five of their remaining seven games -- though you've likely already sided with them as we enter the back half of the NFL season.
- Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
- The Lions have the second-best record in the league and beat this Packers team by two touchdowns in Week 4, paving the path for a 74.4% win probability this week. Detroit will play their annual Thanksgiving Day home game, and they are primed to get their first Turkey Day win after six straight losses on the holiday. With that being said, Week 14's matchup against the Chicago Bears might be the better divisional game to target.
- Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
- Miami's offense is a bit banged up, but the core pieces are all they should need to cruise past New York. After benching Zach Wilson in Week 11's blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Jets are expected to turn to Tim Boyle as their new starting signal-caller, though it probably doesn't matter. A quick turnaround week should turn things from bad to worse for the Jets this Friday.
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
- The 49ers are coming off a pair of statement victories and boast the fourth-highest win probability this week, but I'd avoid them this week. If San Francisco is still on your board, there's no good reason to use them in a divisional game against a solid enough Seattle team. Hold out for impending matchups against the Arizona Cardinals or Washington Commanders.
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- The Chiefs have the second-highest pick rate this week, with 18.69% siding with Kansas City as of this writing (via Yahoo). You can find plenty of weeks where the Chiefs are a great move, and they do have an upcoming date with the New England Patriots on their schedule, but there are few worlds where Patrick Mahomes and company don't get past a 22nd-ranked Las Vegas D.
Digging Deeper
Have you already used all the teams mentioned above? Here are some other options.
Tennessee Titans
We are nearly two-thirds through the NFL season, which means teams with a 3-7 record start becoming viable options for survivor picks. The Tennessee Titans have dropped five of their last six games, but there's not a more appealing matchup in football than the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers narrowly edged out the Houston Texans in Week 8 for their first and only win of the season. By numberFire's metrics, they have a 28th-ranked defense and 30th-ranked offense.
Though Tennessee's 27th-ranked defense doesn't fare much better, they do have the 6th-best rush D and have allowed a mere 91.0 rush yards at home this season.
The Titans have gone 1-3 since Will Levis took over as the starting QB, but as young quarterbacks go, Levis hasn't been too shabby. He's thrown just two interceptions to his six touchdowns since being launched into the starting job, and he could fare well against a Panthers pass defense that averages a mere 1.7 sacks per game.
Derrick Henry should also have a chance to shine against Carolina's worst-ranked rush D. They allow 1.6 rush touchdowns per game (most).
On the season, only two of the Titans' losses have been decided by more than 10 points, whereas Carolina has lost five games by a margin of 14 points or more.
Further, the Titans have a 3-1 record at home this year and a pretty stellar (for them) positive 24-point differential at Nissan Stadium.
This leads Tennessee to be the 4.0-point favorites on Sunday, and numberFire gives them a 68.7% win probability. A great matchup at home is the best place we can find Tennessee for the remainder of the season. After Week 12, they are not currently projected to be favored again.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings may have fallen short in Sunday night's 21-20 loss against the Denver Broncos, but it doesn't discredit the five-game win streak they had going prior, and Minnesota fans couldn't ask for more from Joshua Dobbs through three games.
Dobbs has thrown for five touchdowns and rushed for three since joining the Vikings. This week, he'll face a Chicago Bears team that has only three wins to their name.
Per numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, the Vikings are the 9th-best team in the league, while the Bears sit down at the 24th spot. Chicago's offense and defense sit in the bottom 10, while Minnesota ranks 11th-best on both sides of the ball.
A bonus in siding with Minnesota this week is that they may be getting star receiver Justin Jefferson back from the IR, though we can't let his questionable status afford the Vikings too much.
But we can credit the Vikings for having a positive 23-point differential and 2-0 record within their division, while the Bears have a negative 56-point differential and 0-3 record within the NFC North.
Siding with Minnesota at home this week is en vogue -- they have a 20.93% pick rate (highest) and all signs point to them being a rewarding survivor pick in Week 12.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your