NFL Season-Long Player Prop Betting: What Will Aaron Rodgers' First Season With the Jets Look Like?

Fans of the New York Jets finally have a reason for excitement; four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers will be quarterbacking their team for the 2023 NFL season.

Jets fans have had to endure some of the worst quarterback play in the entire league over the course of the last decade. Apart from the surprising reprieve that was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2015 season, the team has not finished top 10 in the league in points scored since 2008. In an act of cosmic coincidence, that 2008 season came with former Packers quarterback Brett Favre at the helm for the Jets. Rodgers supplanted Favre as the Green Bay Packers’ starting quarterback back in 2008 and will now try to outdo his predecessor in New York in 2023.

The arrival of Rodgers is no small change. The Jets were arguably a quarterback away from being a playoff contender in 2022. While the team has found very little success in recent years, they have assembled a talented group of players on the offensive side of the ball.

Optimism about the team’s outlook has resulted in Rodgers’ regular season passing touchdown line being set at 29.5 touchdowns based on the NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook.

How Would Rodgers Hit the Under?

Before we dive into the upside end of the pool, let’s take a look at the ways Rodgers could underperform his 29.5-touchdown line.

The easiest way Rodgers could fail to reach that number would be by missing games. We can’t project injuries, and Rodgers himself has missed just one game in his past five seasons, but each missed game would make it less and less likely that he misses that mark.

Injuries aside, there is also the possibility that Rodgers isn’t the same player he once was. He will turn 40 by the end of the season and is coming off of arguably his worst season since the first year he became Green Bay’s starter. He threw 12 interceptions in 2022, the first time he’d touched double-digits in that statistic since 2010.

His touchdown rate also came crashing down in 2022. In his first three years playing with Matt LaFleur, Rodgers held an elite 6.8% touchdown rate on his pass attempts. That mark dipped to 4.8% in 2022, his first season without Davante Adams.

Former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan followed a similar trajectory before his disappointing season with the Indianapolis Colts this past season. Ryan lost both of his top receiving options in his last season in Atlanta; Calvin Ridley was suspended for the season for violating the league’s gambling policy, and Julio Jones was traded to the Tennessee Titans before the season.

That situation led to him throwing for 53 fewer yards, 0.6 fewer touchdowns, and 0.3 more interceptions per game than he had in the previous season. Things looked better for him on paper after the Colts acquired him via trade ahead of the 2022 season, but it was quickly evident during the season that Ryan was nearing the end of his NFL career. He was benched by the end of the season.

Rodgers seemed to have more gas left in the tank than Ryan did last season, but we can’t say for certain whether that will hold true heading into Week 1 this season.

Hitting the Over

On the other, more optimistic side of the Matt Ryan comparison would be the similarities between Rodgers’ situation and the jump Tom Brady made from the New England Patriots to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Brady’s final season in New England was a tough one to watch. Tight end Rob Gronkowski did not return for that 2019 season, and Brady’s top remaining pass-catchers were 33-year-old slot receiver Julian Edelman and 27-year-old running back James White. It was not a recipe for success.

As many likely remember, Brady appeared instantly rejuvenated in 2020 while throwing to Tampa Bay’s top-notch group of pass-catchers. Just one year after seeing his touchdown rate drop to a career-low 3.9% rate, Brady saw that number spike up 6.6% in his first season in Florida. His 40 touchdown passes that year were eclipsed only by Rodgers’ own 48.

The Jets’ offense bears more resemblance to the Buccaneers’ squad from 2020 than it does to the Colts’ group from 2022, but it’s probably closest to a middle-ground between those two situations. While Brady had three top-tier receivers in 2020 (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown), Rodgers will mostly be throwing to Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Allen Lazard. Wilson is very exciting, but Davis and Lazard are no Godwin or Brown.

Ideally the Jets will have made improvements on the offensive line heading into 2023 after finishing the 2022 season with Pro Football Focus’ 31st-graded line. Injured starters like Duane Brown, Mekhi Becton, and Alijah Vera-Tucker should return healthy for Week 1, and the team made multiple investments on linemen in the 2023 NFL Draft to bolster their depth.

Rodgers' 2023 Outlook

Rodgers’ career touchdown rate has been an impressive 6.2% mark. Extrapolating from that average would dictate that he needs to throw 483.9 passes to reach 30 touchdowns in a given season. Given that he has thrown at least 526 in each of the last 5 seasons, that would imply that Rodgers could miss almost 2 games in 2023 and still hit the over on 29.5 passing touchdowns. The Jets have averaged over 600 passing attempts per season since Robert Salah took over two years ago, as well.

A lot more goes into scoring points in the NFL than just saying “Rodgers needs to throw this many passes to score that many points,” but looking at career averages can help us envision what a season would look like if Rodgers beats the over.

Rodgers’ high touchdown rate average describes two aspects of his career as a passer. First, that he has produced insane efficiency when surrounded by elite pass-catchers such as Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson. Second, it has shown that “poor” seasons for Rodgers still look like average seasons compared to the rest of the league.

The trio of Wilson, Davis, and Lazard, supported by receivers like Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman, will provide Rodgers with adequate support for the 2023 season. Wilson could even ascend to stardom with Rodgers at the helm after his impressive debut campaign. The Jets’ roster should help Rodgers finish the season closer to his career 6.2% average touchdown rate than to the closer-to-league-average 4.8% mark he had last season.

Those factors should help him hit the over on his passing-touchdown prop as long as he stays healthy.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.