James Conner Can Crush His Rushing Yards Prop

Another day closer to the NFL season means we have a chance to look at some season-long NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook. Training camp is right around the corner, and we will get a clear look at players and their roles on each team.

One player with a very clear role is running back James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals. He's in line for a massive offensive role this year, and his season-long rushing prop at 675.5 (-112) seems far too low to me.

Playing With the Cards You're Dealt

When it comes to the 2023 Cardinals, the theme you'll hear again and again is that they are lacking talent. They are going to be without quarterback, Kyler Murray, who suffered an ACL injury in Week 14 of last season. His timetable to return is still unknown, but it has been reported it could be half of the season. It's also been reported that Murray may sit out the entire season and return full healthy in 2024 since he is in the early part of his career.

We can't forget about the fact that Arizona released star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in May. The Cardinals now have the 28th-ranked wide receiver group, according to PFF. They are without their starting quarterback and now have one of the worst pass-catching groups in the league.

This puts their offense in a very tough spot, and it leaves James Conner as their best player. Conner is going to be the straw that stirs the drink that is the Cardinals' offense.

He is expected to have a massive workload due to the lack of talent around him and should be the focal point of their offense.

Conner has been a solid running back throughout the years and has finished with at least 721 rushing yards in four of the last five seasons. He's been consistent, and that should be the floor expectation from him this season.

In three of those five seasons, the teams Conner played for was top 10 around the NFL in pass-play percentage. He has managed to be productive on the ground while operating in offenses that were focused primarily on the passing game.

With the Cardinals having one of the worst passing offenses in the league, it won't be a shock to see the Cardinals shift to being a run-first offense.

If that is going to be the case this season, Conner will be in a spot to thrive on the ground. In 2022, Conner controlled a massive 74.39% rushing share among Cardinals' running backs. He was the primary option for them on the ground, and it looks to be the same this season.

A running back room that consists of Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty'Son Williams behind him doesn't pose too much of a threat to an established and proven player such as Conner.

James Conner 2023 Outlook

There's no denying the Cardinals are going to have a rough go at things this season. Between injuries and players leaving, their offense isn't going to be the high-flying offense we've seen in years past. Conner is the rock of their offense and has a clear path to production this season.

numberFire's projections have Conner rushing for 1,084.62 yards this season, which is noticeably higher than his prop of 675.5 rushing yards.

Of course, that projection assumes Conner plays a full 17-game season. Even if Conner were to miss a game or two, there's some nice leeway between the projection and the prop total. Conner has the role and the volume to get him over 675.5 rushing yards this season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.