NFL Rookie Receiving Yards Betting: The Case for Zay Flowers

The Baltimore Ravens drafted their third first-round wide receiver in the past five years when they selected Zay Flowers 22nd overall.

Flowers was the third receiver drafted amid a run on pass catchers from picks 20 to 23. He holds the fourth-shortest odds to lead the rookie class in receiving yards, per the NFL rookie betting odds on FanDuel.

• Jordan Addison +230
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba +300
• Quentin Johnston +550
• Zay Flowers +1000
• Jonathan Mingo +1200
• Rashee Rice +1800

Of the first-round receivers, Flowers has far and away the longest odds to lead the rookie class in receiving yards. Still, with his talent and pedigree, there is certainly a case to be made for Zay Flowers to lead the 2023 rookie class in receiving yards.

For a full list of NFL odds visit the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Elite College Production

Zay Flowers put together an illustrious college career at Boston College. Flowers was named twice to the All-ACC First Team (2020, 2022) and once to the All-ACC Third Team (2021). In his final season, Flowers racked up 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns, being named a Third Team AP All-American and finishing as a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist.

Flowers was a workhorse for BC, serving as their leading receiver in each of his final three seasons and garnering a 31% target share in 2022. Despite his 5'9", 182 lbs frame, Flowers played all over the field and saw 67% of his snaps out wide, per PFF.

While he maintained an above-average 13.0 average depth of target (aDOT) for his career, that number dwindled to 10.1 during his final season. That was likely a byproduct of Boston College force-feeding him the ball with their lack of surrounding talent. Make no mistake, Flowers is fully capable of creating separation and making plays down the field.

However, his hands were a concern as he finished his collegiate career with 24 career drops and a 10.8% drop rate. Nine of those came during his senior season. Although, when he did catch the ball, it was game over.

Flowers was a monster in the open field and led the ACC with 503 yards after the catch last season. His speed is the first thing you notice on film, and that was affirmed by his 4.42-second 40-yard dash. Zay won't burn NFL defensive backs as easily as he did in college, but his agility and shiftiness should translate and be one of his biggest strengths.

Rookie WR Trends

Looking at some of the recent rookie receiving leaders can be helpful in evaluating how this year's class will fare.

• 2022: Garrett Wilson; 1,103 yards (No. 8 overall, WR2)
• 2021: Ja'Marr Chase; 1,455 yards (No. 5 overall, WR1)
• 2020: Justin Jefferson; 1,400 yards (No. 22 overall, WR4)
• 2019: A.J. Brown; 1,051 yards (No. 51 overall, WR4)
• 2018: Calvin Ridley; 821 yards (No. 26 overall, WR2)

Over the last five years, four of the rookie receiving yards leaders were first-round selections, and all five were among the first four receivers drafted. While these parameters aren't set in stone, they show the caliber of rookie we're looking for in a yards leader.

Although none of the previous five leaders had elite quarterback play, only Garrett Wilson had a subpar signal-caller at the helm. Lamar Jackson is certainly on par as a passer with the Kirk Cousins of the world, so Flowers' quarterback play likely won't be what deters him from being productive.

numberFire projects Flowers to accumulate 53 receptions (on 84 targets), 637 yards, and 4.16 touchdowns in 2023. While those fall short of what he'll likely need to lead the class, Flowers' 12.0 projected yards per reception aren't far off Wilson's 13.3 mark nor Ridley's 12.8. That's also far below the 15.3 he racked up at Boston College.

Flowers' biggest hurdle will be targets -- something difficult to project given the new-look Baltimore offense.

The Ravens' New Groove

The Ravens' offense will assuredly look different from last season -- and not just because of Flowers. In addition to drafting Zay, Baltimore signed veterans Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor, too. However, those signings aren't nearly as impactful as their offensive scheme change.

Baltimore fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman after four seasons. During that time, the Ravens were almost allergic to passing the ball:

• 2019: 32nd in pass attempts, 27th in yards
• 2020: 32nd in pass attempts, 32nd in yards
• 2021: 9th in pass attempts, 13th in yards
• 2022: 28th in pass attempts, 28th in yards

To replace Roman, the Ravens hired former Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Monken spent the last three seasons at Georgia where he orchestrated one of the most explosive offenses in college football. During his previous tenure in the NFL, he was in charge of a Buccaneers passing attack that twice ranked inside the top five in attempts and yards (2017-18).

Monken is an offensive guru who has spearheaded explosive offenses at every level. Lamar is already "loving" the new scheme and wants to throw for 6,000 yards. That's farfetched but also a clear indication Baltimore will not be the ground-and-pound team of old.

Flowers' 2023 Outlook

Flowers will have the opportunity to make an immediate impact in Baltimore where he'll compete with Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman for targets. Andrews has solidified himself as Lamar's primary option, but the No. 2 role is up for grabs.

Take offseason chatter with a grain of salt, but Flowers has already received high praise from teammates and coaches alike. It doesn't hurt that Lamar Jackson's strongest WR connection came with Marquise Brown -- a player nearly identical in size to Flowers.

A more apt comparison to Flowers would be T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is bigger and faster than Flowers but he thrived after moving inside where he created significantly more separation. Considering Flowers was much more effective off the ball at Boston College, a similar leap could come for Flowers, albeit at a different stage of his career.

Flowers will likely shift into the slot with Bateman and Beckham out wide. His size and speed make him an ideal threat after the catch and Todd Monken already said he'll get creative with Zay's touches. Deebo Samuel comparisons get passed out like Halloween candy, but it's fun to imagine Baltimore using him in a similar role.

With the uncertainty surrounding Flowers in this new Baltimore offense, his odds make sense compared to the other first-round receivers. That said, if the Ravens make him a priority, it certainly isn't out of the question that Flowers leads this rookie class in receiving.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.