NFL Rookie Prop Bets: Best Bets for Rookie Passing, Rushing and Receiving Props

Best Players Available at a Glance

• Jeremiyah Love Over 975.5 Rush Yds
• Fernando Mendoza Under 2,700.5 Pass Yds
• Carnell Tate Over 750.5 Receiving Yds
• Jordyn Tyson Under 800.5 Receiving Yds
• Omar Cooper Jr. Under 575.5 Receiving Yds

Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, and with it, we learned landing spots for some of the top offensive skill players in the 2026 class.

FanDuel Sportsbook has wasted little time in getting season-long prop markets up for some of this year's rookies. Let's dig into those lines and find some bets that should be on your radar.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Rookie Prop Bets NFL: Best Bets for 2026 Rookies

Jeremiyah Love Over 975.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The case for Jeremiyah Love going over his rookie rushing yards prop starts with understanding exactly how good this player is and exactly how desperate the Cardinals are to run the football.

The College Profile

Love is the consensus top running back prospect since Bijan Robinson in 2023 and Ashton Jeanty in 2025. In his two full seasons at Notre Dame, he ran for 2,497 yards and 35 touchdowns while accumulating 55 receptions for 517 yards and five receiving touchdowns. His final collegiate season — the one that sealed his top-three draft status — was extraordinary: 199 carries for 1,372 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, averaging 6.9 yards per carry with 726 of his yards coming on carries of 15 or more yards, ranking him second in the Power Four in explosive runs. He won the Doak Walker Award as the nation's best running back and finished third in Heisman Trophy voting behind only Fernando Mendoza and a second-place finisher. He posted a 98 out of 100 on PFF's In-Game Athleticism Score.

His combine numbers back the tape: 6-foot, 212 pounds, 4.36 40-yard dash — making him only the second player weighing at least 200 pounds to run sub-4.4 at running back in recent NFL Draft history. He fumbled once on 496 career touches. He is a three-down back who can pass-protect, receive out of the backfield, and break the game open on any carry.

The Landing Spot

Arizona is a desperate situation at running back. The Cardinals averaged just 93.1 rushing yards per game in 2025 — their worst mark in years. James Conner suffered a foot injury in Week 3 and never returned. Trey Benson lasted one game before a meniscus injury ended his season. General manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Mike LaFleur made Love the third overall pick specifically to fix this problem with a generational talent.

Kyler Murray has departed for Minnesota, leaving Jacoby Brissett as the current starting quarterback. That context is critical: the Cardinals' offense is not going to carry them with a veteran bridge quarterback. This will be a team that builds around Love from the first snap of the preseason, with the plan of letting their third-overall investment carry 20-plus touches per game and justify the franchise-altering pick.

The Comp and the Line

The historical comparison for Love is Bijan Robinson with the Atlanta Falcons in 2023, where Robinson ran for 976 yards as a rookie despite the Falcons already having Tyler Allgeier. Love has a cleaner backfield situation. Nine running backs drafted in the top 10 since 2010 have averaged 274 touches and 244 PPR points as rookies. Love has the physical profile, the landing spot, and the organizational commitment to clear 975 rushing yards — and he has a very realistic path to 1,100 or more.

The 975.5 line is set conservatively. At 17 games per season, Love needs 57.5 rushing yards per game to clear this number. His college per-game average was 85.8 yards per contest. Even accounting for the NFL adjustment and a reduced efficiency curve as a rookie, the over is the percentage play.

Fernando Mendoza Under 2,700.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Fernando Mendoza is unquestionably the most talented quarterback prospect in this draft class. The Heisman Trophy winner, national champion, AP Player of the Year, Walter Camp Award winner, and Davey O'Brien Award winner from Indiana is a generational talent with everything scouts look for: size (6-foot-4, 225 pounds), accuracy (best career off-target rate at 7.1% in his class), pocket presence, command of a complex offense, and the intangibles of a player who led the Indiana Hoosiers to a 16-0 season and their first national championship in school history. None of that is in question.

What is in question is whether he will play enough in 2026 to surpass 2,700 passing yards.

The College Profile

Mendoza's collegiate résumé is genuinely elite. He transferred to Indiana from Cal ahead of the 2025 season and immediately delivered the most dominant individual season in Hoosier history: 273 completions on 379 attempts (72.0% completion rate), 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions, a 90.3 QBR (first in FBS), and 7 rushing touchdowns. He was composed under pressure, fearless attacking windows between defenders, and consistently excellent on third downs. His arm is strong enough to make every throw from hash to sideline, and his touch passing on intermediate routes was elite throughout the CFP run. Over two seasons at Cal before Indiana, he added 4,712 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, demonstrating consistent development at each stage of his college career.

The Landing Spot Problem

The Raiders have Kirk Cousins under contract as a bridge quarterback. Head coach Klint Kubiak has specifically said he does not want a rookie quarterback to start in Week 1. The Raiders' organizational stance — publicly stated and backed by the presence of Cousins on the roster — is that Mendoza will be developed properly rather than thrown into the deep end immediately.

History says this pattern does not hold for long. Cousins has not played well in the past two seasons, the Raiders are a team with some talent elsewhere on the roster, and the moment their record makes it untenable to keep the veteran starter in front of the high-value first pick, Mendoza will likely be activated -- but Vegas clearly wants to be patient. Multiple analysts have connected Mendoza's debut to somewhere between Week 5 and Week 9. If that is accurate, he is playing 10 games or fewer in his rookie season.

Assuming the Raiders stick to that plan for at least a decent chunk of the season, Mendoza should have a hard time getting to the over.

Carnell Tate Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Carnell Tate walks into Tennessee as the first offensive weapon that second-year quarterback Cam Ward can genuinely build around. The Titans spent the fourth overall pick on him for a reason: they watched Ward's 2025 rookie season disintegrate in part because he had no legitimate outside receiver to throw to, and they are not willing to let the same thing happen in Year 2.

The College Profile

Tate played three seasons at Ohio State in one of the most competitive receiver rooms in college football history, sharing targets with Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., and the incomparable Jeremiah Smith. The fact that he emerged as a legitimate first-round talent despite that competition is a testament to his route-running polish, hands, and ability to win in contested catch situations. His career numbers — 121 catches for 1,872 yards and 14 touchdowns — do not tell the full story because his usage was volume-suppressed by an embarrassment of receiving riches. What the per-route metrics show is more impressive: 13.1 yards per target (first in this WR class in 2025), 3.06 yards per route run (third in this class), and a 75% catch rate on his targets over his final two seasons. He also led the country with six receiving touchdowns on passes of 30-plus air yards — the definition of a deep threat whose big-play ability is the primary weapon in a quality offense.

At 6-foot-2, 192 pounds, he won the Vertical Threat of the Year award after the 2025 season. He has a 68.8% contested catch rate and zero drops despite a 14.6 aDOT — meaning he was routinely winning the hardest catches in college football.

The Landing Spot

Tennessee is in a genuine window of optimism heading into 2026. New offensive coordinator Brian Daboll arrives from New York, bringing a reputation as one of the league's most creative play-callers with wide receivers. Daboll was a key architect in Josh Allen's development in Buffalo and engineered offenses that consistently generated elite volume for outside receivers.

The Titans also added Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency to handle the slot. That alignment means Tate will operate almost exclusively on the outside — Daboll's preferred location for a 6-2 vertical threat — where he can go one-on-one against cornerbacks without the traffic of a slot role. He becomes Ward's designated red-zone target and the primary downfield option for a quarterback who needs to develop trust in one receiver in a hurry.

Cam Ward showed flashes in his rookie season (roughly 3,300 passing yards, 20 touchdowns in 15 starts) but was limited by the historic weakness of Tennessee's receiving corps. Ward is projected for another 3,400-yard season in 2026, and with Tate as the primary weapon, there is no reason those yards cannot flow through the outside receiver more consistently.

Tate's injury history is clean. His character and preparation profile are among the best in the class. His over-the-top target type, the one he thrived with at Ohio State, is exactly what Daboll prefers to call in meaningful situations.

Tate should have every chance to see significant volume right away, and there's a chance Ward takes a step forward in Year 2, which leads me to Tate's over.

Jordyn Tyson Under 800.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Jordyn Tyson is one of the most physically gifted receivers in this entire draft class. A 6-foot-2, 200-pound perimeter weapon who wins with elite body control, a towering catch radius, fluid route mechanics coached by Hines Ward himself at Arizona State, and the competitive fire of a player who repeatedly battled back from injury just to make the field. The talent is legitimate and the ceiling at the NFL level is real.

But at 800.5 receiving yards, FanDuel's line is asking Tyson to deliver a truly standout rookie season in an offensive environment with significant structural limitations — and his injury history makes that a bet worth fading.

The College Profile

Tyson's two-season production at Arizona State stands as one of the more impressive resumes in this draft class when adjusted for availability. Over his 2024 and 2025 campaigns combined, he posted 136 receptions for 1,812 yards and 19 touchdowns across 21 games — an average of 86.3 yards per game and 0.90 touchdowns per game when he was on the field. His breakout 2024 season was exceptional: 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 starts, earning Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year and a dominant six-game stretch where he produced 732 yards and six scores. Over four total college seasons spanning Colorado and Arizona State, he accumulated 158 receptions for 2,282 yards and 22 touchdowns in 33 games. His per-game averages rank fourth, sixth, and third in this receiver class in yards, receptions, and touchdowns respectively when healthy.

The knock, and it is significant, is the modifier "when healthy." Tyson's collarbone cut short his 2024 season. A hamstring injury limited him to nine games in 2025. An ACL tear ended his freshman year at Colorado in 2022. Over his college career he has missed games due to injury in three of his four seasons. Head coach Kellen Moore acknowledged it publicly in his post-draft press conference, praising Tyson's toughness for playing through adversity — but the pattern is hard to dismiss entering a 17-game NFL season.

The Landing Spot and the Math

New Orleans is a functional offense that took genuine strides under Kellen Moore in 2025. The Saints led the NFL in no-huddle rate at 22.7% and were one of the league's faster-paced offenses, creating a volume-friendly environment for pass catchers. Tyler Shough showed enough as a late-season starter to earn the full-time job in 2026. Travis Etienne Jr. was signed to add a receiving threat from the backfield. On paper, this is a unit with legitimate passing infrastructure.

The problem for Tyson specifically is Chris Olave. The Saints' incumbent WR1 commanded a 27.6% target share and 39.4% of the team's air yards in 2025 — and Olave is playing 2026 under his fifth-year option, meaning his front-office standing has never been higher. Tyson walks in as WR2 from Day 1, and in an offense where Olave controls the first look, a rookie receiver learning NFL route concepts, defensive tendencies, and a new playbook cannot realistically approach the target volume needed to surpass 800 yards in his debut season.

To clear 800.5 receiving yards over 17 games — assuming full health — Tyson needs 47.1 yards per game. In context: Chris Olave, the team's established WR1, averaged 66 yards per game in 2025. The WR2 in New Orleans clearing 47 yards per game as a rookie is a tall task.

For reference, the Saints' entire secondary receiving corps beyond Olave combined for just 440 receiving yards in 2025. Tyson is substantially better than those options, but the target ecosystem he is entering does not look like it is going to generate 800-yard WR2 production from an unproven rookie in Year 1.

Now apply Tyson's injury history to those projections. A collarbone. A hamstring. An ACL. Even if his medicals cleared the Saints' front office — and Moore confirmed they did their diligence — the probability of Tyson playing a full 17-game season at 100% capacity is not super high.

It all adds up to me liking the under.

Omar Cooper Jr. Under 575.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Omar Cooper Jr. is a genuinely exciting football player. He is a 6-foot, 199-pound receiver who ran a 4.42 at his Pro Day, scored 13 touchdowns as the leading receiver on a national championship team, and made one of the most clutch toe-tap catches in college football history at Penn State to send Indiana to the title game. The Jets traded back into the first round to get him because they believe in his immediate impact.

None of that changes what the betting market is telling you about his situation: the Jets in 2026 are simply too crowded at skill position to allow a rookie wide receiver to generate a bunch of yards.

The College Profile

Cooper's 2025 season at Indiana was the best individual receiver campaign in Hoosiers history. Operating alongside Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza in the most efficient passing offense in the nation, he led the team with 69 receptions for 937 yards and 13 touchdowns on a 13.6-yard average — with 13 touchdowns tied for third in the FBS. He added 74 rushing yards and another touchdown, demonstrating the all-purpose versatility that had Jets GM Darren Mougey describing him as someone with "strong hands, ability to block, and versatility to play inside and outside." His 2024 breakout season saw him post 28 receptions for 594 yards and 7 touchdowns as a part-time starter, and he forced 28 missed tackles after the catch in 2025, the fourth-most in the country. His 9.16 Relative Athletic Score placed him in the 92nd percentile of all receivers tested since 1987.

The context caveat is important: Cooper's best football was played almost entirely against Big Ten competition that included some Power 4 opponents but was not consistently elite-level defensive matchups. He was Fernando Mendoza's trusted security blanket in an offense designed to maximize his short-to-intermediate production. The transition to the NFL slot role, against cornerbacks who are quicker and more physical at the line of scrimmage than any he faced in college, will take time.

The Jets' Target Congestion

New York's receiving corps is now genuinely strong — which is a problem for Cooper's individual statistical ceiling in 2026. Garrett Wilson is the unquestioned WR1 when healthy, a legitimate top-notch receiver in the NFL who racked up 56 targets through Week 6 of last season before a knee injury sidelined him. Breece Hall is an elite receiving back who routinely earns 60-plus targets out of the backfield. Adonai Mitchell is an athletic young receiver entering his second season and seeking a breakout. Kenyon Sadiq, the Jets' 16th overall pick this year, is a premier pass-catching tight end from Oregon who immediately projects as a high-priority target in offensive coordinator Frank Reich's two-tight end sets. Mason Taylor, the second-round pick from last year, adds another TE option. Cooper is the fifth or sixth most important pass-catcher in this offense from a target priority standpoint before he takes his first NFL snap.

To surpass 575.5 receiving yards across 17 games, Cooper needs 33.9 yards per game. The Jets' target distribution, with Wilson likely commanding 25%+ of targets when healthy, Hall absorbing another chunk, Sadiq eating into the intermediate and red-zone looks, and Mitchell competing for the outside role, leaves Cooper with the slot residual targets from an offense that features a quarterback — Geno Smith — who has helped just four wide receivers reach 14+ PPR points per game over his entire career.

That last number carries serious weight. Geno Smith averaged 6.8 yards per attempt last season and took sacks on a league-high 10.9% of dropbacks. He is unlikely to lift a third or fourth receiver in the pecking order to meaningful statistical production through sheer passing efficiency.

The Jets were 31st in receiving yards by wide receivers in 2025 (1,586 yards total from all WRs). Even with Wilson returning healthy and a completely rebuilt corps, asking Cooper to personally account for 575 of those yards as the WR3 in a crowded offense quarterbacked by a bottom-half-of-the-league signal caller is a significant ask.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.