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FanDuel Sportsbook Promos NFL Power Rankings: 2024 Preseason Edition
Ahead of the 2024 NFL campaign, numberFire's NFL power rankings algorithm has run through the season thousands of times to see each team's expected win total and Super Bowl odds.
Prior to Week 1, here is how the league shakes out, per numberFire's model.
2024 NFL Power Rankings
Rankings as of July 26, 2024.
Team | Rank | nERD | Proj. Record | Playoffs | Div | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 1 | 6.94 | 11.5-5.5-0.1 | 82.0% | 61.7% | 12.4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 6.35 | 11.3-5.7-0.1 | 81.8% | 65.7% | 11.4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 6.27 | 10.9-6.1-0.1 | 72.9% | 40.7% | 10.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 5.2 | 10.6-6.4-0.1 | 70.4% | 44.2% | 6.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 4.61 | 10.8-6.2-0.1 | 68.6% | 36.9% | 4.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 6 | 4.36 | 10.3-6.7-0.1 | 66.4% | 42.4% | 6.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 4.15 | 10.5-6.5-0.1 | 71.7% | 49.5% | 5.6% |
Here is a closer look at the top 10 teams in the power rankings.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers enter with top billing in numbeFire's power rankings for the season.
Their projected win total sits at 11.5, and they've got an 82.0% chance to reach the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Wins 2024-25
numberFire grades the 49ers as the top offense in football while also projecting them to finish top-six in defensive efficiency.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs look to win their third consecutive Super Bowl and their fourth in six seasons this year.
They slot in just behind the 49ers, who have fallen to the Chiefs in two of these three Super Bowl wins for Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins 2024-25
Another 10-win season would give the Chiefs 10 straight under head coach Andy Reid, and they're in search of their ninth consecutive AFC West crown.
Baltimore Ravens
Third on the power rankings list are the Baltimore Ravens, who just won the AFC North on the back of a 13-4 record.
numberFire is projecting the Ravens for a top-10 offense and a top-two defense.
Baltimore Ravens Regular Season Wins 2024-25
Their 10.1% Super Bowl odds -- along with the 49ers (12.4%) and Chiefs (11.4%) -- are the only three above 7.0% as of late July.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are seeking a fifth straight AFC East championship but have lost in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs three straight, as well.
Behind an offense that has ranked top-six in points and a defense that was top-four in points in each of the last three seasons, the Bills have the makings of a contender.
Buffalo Bills Regular Season Wins 2024-25
However, they're projected as the third-best team in the conference and have a 6.0% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals
Though the 49ers are in the top spot, the Cincinnati Bengals' inclusion in the top five gives the AFC four of the top-five spots on the list.
Of course, Cincinnati rates out as only the second strongest team in the AFC North and have just a 36.9% chance to win their division -- well off the pace of some of the other top-five teams.
numberFire's model is expecting the Bengals to rank third in offensive efficiency, and their defense is a top-12 unit, as well.
Detroit Lions
Going back to the NFC for a few spots on the list, let's look at the Detroit Lions. Detroit is fresh off of a 12-5 season.
Jared Goff has led the team to a top-five offense by points per game two straight seasons, but their defense has been 23rd or worse in points allowed in five straight campaigns.
Still, given the landscape in the NFC behind the 49ers, they rate out with a 6.9% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Detroit Lions Regular Season Wins 2024-25
Dallas Cowboys
America's Team, the Dallas Cowboys, have won the NFC East in two of the last three seasons and have ranked first, fourth, and first in points per game offensively in those seasons.
Defensively, they were a top-seven unit every time.
Dallas Cowboys Regular Season Wins 2024-25
Despite that balanced profile, their playoff hopes have ended in the wild card round twice and in the divisional round two years ago.
They're again expected to have top-10 offense and defense, via numberFire.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are eighth on the list but have a bit of a gap in nERD (expected point differential against an average opponent) between them (2.95) and the Cowboys (4.15).
That helps explain a gap in divisional win odds (49.5% for Dallas and 42.0% for Philadelphia).
Jalen Hurts has amassed 38 rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons, peaking at 15 a season ago. The retirement of Jason Kelce could prove vital for those numbers, but for now, the Eagles are still in the second tier of teams in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins' explosive offense had them ranked first in yards and second in points per game in 2023, but their defense was 22nd in scoring average (though 10th in yards per game allowed).
During both seasons with Mike McDaniel at the helm, Miami has finished second in the AFC East while losing in the wild card round.
They have a 58.6% chance to reach the playoffs for a third straight season, per numberFire.
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans round out the top 10 in numberFire's late-July power rankings.
Behind rookie quarterback sensation C.J. Stroud, Houston ranked 13th in points offensively and won the AFC South for the first time since 2019.
They lost in the divisional round by a score of 34-10 to the Baltimore Ravens.
Houston is eighth in the league in division win probability at 41.3%.
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