NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Zay Flowers in 2023

Of the four wide receivers drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Baltimore Ravens wideout Zay Flowers has the longest odds to win the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The NFL Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook list Flowers at +2000 to win it.

So what gives?

As talented as Flowers is, he likely has the toughest path to prolific rookie-year production among any of the receivers drafted in the first round this year due to the competition for targets he'll face. Tight end Mark Andrews has dominated targets in Baltimore’s offense for four seasons now. Former first-round pick Rashod Bateman is expected to be healthy enough to participate in the team’s offseason program, and Odell Beckham signed a deal worth up to $18 million to play for the Ravens this year.

On top of that, the Ravens have traditionally taken a run-based approach with Lamar Jackson at the helm. Even in Jackson’s MVP-winning season -- during which he led the league in touchdown passes -- the Ravens still finished dead last in total pass attempts, and they’ve ranked in the bottom five in the league in pass attempts in two of the three seasons since that one.

Despite all that, is it possible Flowers breaks out in 2023? Let's take a look.

A New Era for the Ravens

Things could be changing in Baltimore.

While offensive coordinator Greg Roman helped oversee a successful transition from Joe Flacco to Jackson, the Ravens shook things up this offseason, swapping out Roman for former Georgia Bulldogs offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Monken’s previous work as an OC in the NFL has produced mixed results. His best run came with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Over a three-year period as the Bucs’ OC, Tampa Bay's offense went from 27th in total offensive yards in 2016, to 18th in 2017, and up to 9th in 2018. He was, however, let go after that last season, when the team hired Bruce Arians as head coach.

Things didn't go as well during a 6-10 campaign with Cleveland Browns in 2019, but it was Freddie Kitchens who called the plays.

Monken then landed with Georgia as their quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator. The team proceeded to win back-to-back national titles while improving their offense from the 38th-best unit in college football in 2020, to 9th in 2021, and all the way up to 4th in 2022. Georgia’s defense has rightfully been credited for the program’s recent stretch of dominance, but Monken turned their offense into a well-tuned machine.

With a new OC in charge in Baltimore and some better talent at wideout, we shouldn’t assume things will look the same as they have in recent years, particularly when it comes to how often the Ravens utilize certain personnel groupings -- something that could benefit Flowers.

In 2022, the Ravens ran a whopping 45% of their first-down plays out of 22-personnel, meaning they had two running backs, two tight ends, and one wide receiver on the field. Only one other team used that grouping on more than 7% of their first-down snaps.

Most teams use 11-personnel as their primary grouping, including Monken’s offenses in Tampa Bay.

In short, there is a chance receivers are on the field a heck of a lot more for Baltimore this year than they have been during most of Jackson’s tenure.

That’s obviously a huge deal for Flowers, who might otherwise have been an afterthought in previous iterations of Baltimore’s offense. Despite likely starting the season behind both Bateman and Beckham on the depth chart, Flowers should have a good shot to see a solid amount of snaps. That's a good first step.

How Good Is Zay Flowers?

Some of Flowers’ receiver contemporaries in this class have had the public eye on them for a while. That's not the case for Flowers, who, by comparison, was more off the radar heading into his final collegiate season.

He became one of the fastest risers in the 2023 class.

As a three-star prospect coming out of high school, Flowers received offers from multiple SEC schools before opting to play for Boston College. He got on the field immediately, finishing third on the team in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns as a freshman.

After running back A.J. Dillon departed to the NFL, the Eagles' offense essentially became the Zay Flowers show. He led the team in almost every receiving category in his next three seasons and caught the NFL’s attention with his incredible final year.

As a senior, Flowers caught 78 passes for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns. He hauled in more than half of the team’s receiving touchdowns that season while finishing with more receiving yards than the team’s three next-best receivers combined. He was almost their entire passing offense.

According to Pro Football Focus, Flowers' 97.5 receiving grade on deep targets ranked seventh among drafted receivers in the 2023 class while only Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt had a higher yards per route run on those targets than Flowers’ elite 18.52 mark. He was also a dynamic playmaker on throws around the line of scrimmage and forced 15 missed tackles despite his smaller size.

He did all of this while working with what was likely the worst quarterback play of any receiver drafted in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft. PFF graded starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec -- Boston College's signal-caller -- outside of the top 200 passers in college football. No other Day 1 or Day 2 receiver played with a worse quarterback, per PFF's grades, and all but one played with a quarterback who rated within the top 50 among qualified passers.

It's safe to say that Jackson will be an upgrade for Flowers, and it's possible we haven’t even scratched the surface of Flowers’ potential.

Flowers’ Path to an OROY Season

Baltimore's slew of pass-catchers could be a negative, but it could also be a positive.

If Andrews, OBJ and Bateman attract a lot of attention from defenses, Flowers may consistently see favorable matchups in 2023, and his 4.42-second 40-yard dash makes him the fastest pass-catcher of the bunch in what could be an explosive attack.

At its best, Monken’s offense with the Bucs supported a group of four wide receivers and a pass-catching tight end. Each of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries finished the 2018 season with at least 750 receiving yards, while the tight end duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard combined for 854 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Jackson may not see the passing volume that Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick did that season, but the larger point remains: Baltimore's passing attack could be a lot better in 2023 than it's been in recent years.

If the Ravens become a team that makes headlines every week -- as they did in Jackson’s MVP campaign -- Flowers could be thrust into the spotlight. His potent combination of explosive playmaking and consistent chain-moving could result in a statline-padding season and highlight-reel grabs.

He’ll need to outshine his fellow first-round wideouts to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and that won’t be easy. After all, there’s a reason Flowers is priced at +2000 to win the award, the worst odds among the first-round skill position players. But he is the only one of those players who landed with a former MVP on a team poised to make the playoffs (-150 to do so).

Flowers could play a huge role in what might be an exciting Ravens offense, and by the season's end, that could be enough to put him among the leading contenders to win the OROY award.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.