NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Jordan Addison in 2023

The Minnesota Vikings made former Pitt and USC receiver Jordan Addison the 23rd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. He was the fourth wide receiver drafted on the night in a group that went consecutively with picks 20-23.

The NFL futures market on the FanDuel Sportsbook is open for bets on the 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Addison has +1600 odds to win the award, tying him with fellow first-round pick Quentin Johnston for the seventh-best odds in the draft class.

Only Seattle Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+900) has better odds among wideouts, but it’s not hard to see a world where Addison’s line should be closer to Smith-Njigba’s.

Addison’s Landing Spot

Addison will arguably face the least competition of any of the 2023 first-round receivers for opportunities in his rookie season.

The Vikings parted ways with veteran wideout Adam Thielen during the offseason and have no established receivers behind superstar Justin Jefferson currently on the roster. K.J. Osborn, Jalen Reagor, and Jalen Nailor will be Addison’s primary competition to see the field as a rookie, and none of those receivers are especially likely to play over the exciting first-round pick. So, while Addison will have to vie for targets behind Jefferson as a rookie, his path to actual playing time is arguably the simplest among his peers.

Smith-Njigba was a dominant receiver at Ohio State while playing almost exclusively in the slot. He figures to continue playing in the slot for the Seahawks this season, joining a group led by D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He should see plenty of opportunities, but staying in the slot could limit him to playing in three-receiver sets on an offense that utilized that specific personnel grouping at the sixth-lowest rate in 2022.

Like Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston will be joining a talented group of receivers on the Los Angeles Chargers. He’ll play alongside Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on an offense that utilized three-receiver sets at a much higher clip than the Seahawks. However, the Chargers’ offense also makes heavy use of pass-catching back Austin Ekeler, who has drawn over 200 targets in the past two seasons. Johnston is an exciting playmaker, but he’ll need to produce efficiently to shine enough amongst that group to compete for the OROY award.

Baltimore Ravens receiver Zay Flowers is in a similar position to Johnston. He’ll be vying for targets alongside Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham, and Rashod Bateman in his rookie season. The Ravens should have a brand new passing scheme under offensive coordinator Todd Monken, but they’re still unlikely to have the kind of passing volume necessary to elevate more than two of those receivers in any given game. Flowers has arguably the toughest path to opportunities among any of the first-round receivers.

All Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates will have to impress the AP’s voters with their resumes by the end of the season, and Addison has at least one advantage over his peers before the season even begins just based on his landing spot.

Addison’s Impressive Resume

We outlined the kinds of seasons a rookie wide receiver needs to put together to put forth a compelling Offensive Rookie of the Year case in our piece on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s odds last week. To summarize, a rookie wide receiver needs to either showcase dominance from the get-go – like Odell Beckham and Ja'Marr Chase – or perform well in an otherwise underwhelming field. The 2023 wide receivers have their work cut out for them with at least three rookie quarterbacks and two elite running back prospects in the mix to win the award, so the most likely scenario that has a wide receiver winning the award at the end of the season is one in which that receiver becomes a star in the debut campaign.

Jordan Addison might just have that kind of potential.

Addison ranked as the #4 overall athlete in the 2020 class, according to 247Sports, after playing a combination of receiver, quarterback, and defensive in high school. He committed to Pitt where he led the team in all receiving categories with his 60/666/4 line as a freshman.

That promising freshman season was a precursor of things to come. Addison won the Fred Biletnikoff Award for outstanding receiver play in his sophomore season. He finished that campaign with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. His 17 receiving touchdowns led all of college football in 2021, and his 1,593 receiving yards ranked second – behind only Smith-Njigba – among Power 5 conference receivers.

Addison leveraged that incredible season into an offer from the USC Trojans and transferred there his final collegiate season. His raw numbers in 2022 paled in comparison to those of his sophomore year, but he still led the Trojans across the board in receiving with his 59/875/8 line. His 2.99 yards per route run in 2022 still ranked seventh in the entire draft class; only Jalin Hyatt and Rashee Rice posted better marks among receivers drafted during the first two days. It was a disappointment relative to his breakout 2021 season but was by no means a bad season.

Jordan Addison's 2023 Outlook

Now with first-round draft capital and a clear runway to opportunities, Addison is poised to hit the ground running in the NFL.

The Vikings boasted a prolific passing game under head coach Kevin O’Connell in 2022 and project to take a similar approach in 2023. With defenses doing their best to limit Justin Jefferson across from him, Addison should be set up perfectly to avoid tough coverages and find softer spots against the zone.

We’ve seen Addison play like a superstar before. His 2021 season was so good it arguably was responsible for Kenny Pickett being selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Even in a draft class packed with talent -- from quarterbacks like Bryce Young to running backs like Bijan Robinson -- Addison could outshine his contemporaries. 

His +1600 odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award seem like a good value before we even reach training camps.

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