NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Bryce Young in 2023

The Carolina Panthers made the first big move of the 2023 NFL Draft when they traded up from the ninth pick of the draft all the way up to the first in March. It cost them a pretty penny, too; they had to send the 9th pick, the 61st pick, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Chicago Bears to seal the deal.

If former Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young succeeds in the NFL, the Panthers are likely to say that the trade was worth it. What better way to hit the ground running than by winning the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award by season’s end?

Young is currently +430 on the NFL prop bet market at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the award in his debut campaign, giving him the second-best chance among all rookies. Only Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has better odds at +300.

The Case for Bryce Young as Offensive Rookie of the Year

Young led two impressive campaigns as the starting quarterback for Alabama over the last two seasons. In 2021 (his first year as the starter), Young completed 66.9% of his passes for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions. His outstanding performance that season won him the Heisman Trophy.

Young’s numbers took a hit the following season after the 2021 Crimson Tide offense saw all four of its top pass-catchers leave for the NFL, but he was still able to lead an effective offense with his 64.5% completion percentage, 3,328 passing yards, and a 32:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Panthers are set up relatively well to support Young in his rookie season -- especially compared to other teams that drafted quarterbacks first overall in recent seasons; each of Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield were drafted by teams with very little supportive infrastructure around their young quarterbacks.

Young will get to play behind an offensive line that is returning all five of its starters for the 2023 season and that graded out well by the end of 2022, according to Pro Football Focus. He shouldn’t have to deal with the kinds of protection struggles that led to Burrow and Murray absorbing countless hits over the course of their inaugural seasons.

The Panthers also made sure to surround Young with capable pass-catchers. While they did have to include wide receiver D.J. Moore in their deal to acquire Young in the draft, the team prioritized experienced pass-catching free agents and invested their second pick in the ‘23 draft in a wide receiver.

Adam Thielen has been a reliable slot-focused receiver for the Vikings for much of his career, and should lead the Panthers in receiving in 2023. He’ll be backed by a group consisting of D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., and Ole Miss receiver Jonathan Mingo as they support Young in his rookie campaign.

Between his track record of impressive passing abilities and the competent supporting cast he’ll get to play with in 2023, Young should be able to hit the ground running when the season kicks off in September.

Getting off to a good start has seemed to play a key role in determining past winners of the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Each of the last six quarterbacks that won the award played in at least 15 games in their rookie seasons, meaning they were able to claim the starting job from an early point in the season. With just Andy Dalton to compete with for the starting job in Week 1, Young should be able to reach that threshold of games as long as he stays healthy.

The Competition

Young doesn’t need to light the world on fire in his rookie season to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He just needs to present a better case to the AP voters than his competitors do.

As mentioned earlier, Young’s +430 are the second-highest odds of winning the award behind Bijan Robinson. Fellow first-round quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson both have +700 odds as the third- and fourth-most likely winners.

You can read more about Bijan Robinson’s case to win the award here. He is Young’s toughest competitor as things stand a week after the draft.

Stroud and Richardson could have more convoluted paths to winning the award than Young. Stroud went second overall to a Houston Texans franchise that has lost at least 12 games in each of its past 3 seasons. Their depleted roster could be a massive roadblock in Stroud’s path to a successful season.

Richardson is by far the least experienced quarterback of the three drafted in 2023's first round. He had just one season as a starter for the Florida Gators while Young and Stroud each posted back-to-back seasons with top-notch passing production prior to the 2023 draft. The former Florida star seems the least likely of the three first-rounders to start for his new franchise come Week 1.

Bryce Young's 2023 Outlook

Young was a prolific passer in college and is set to start for his team with a decent supporting cast. The NFC South division he’ll play in projects to be one of the weaker divisions in the sport, and Young could lead his team to a division title in his first season just based on the competition.

Quarterbacks have won 6 of the previous 13 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, giving Young a slight positional advantage over Robinson as the race’s top contenders.

It makes sense why Young is one of the most likely players to win the AP’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.