The Atlanta Falcons selected former Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, making him the first offensive skill position player (excluding quarterbacks) to come off the board.

The exciting young running back is the third consecutive skill position player the Falcons have drafted in the top 10 picks in the last three drafts.

According to the NFL prop bets market at FanDuel Sportsbook, Robinson is the early favorite to win the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award and is currently listed at +300.

His closest competitors as of this writing are all quarterbacks. Bryce Young is coming in at +460 while C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson are at +700.

The Case for Bijan Robinson as Offensive Rookie of the Year

A big advantage for Robinson seems to be a clear path to immediate playing time.

Robinson’s primary competition in Atlanta are Tyler Allgeier, a 2022 fifth-round pick, and return-ace Cordarrelle Patterson.

Allgeier quietly finished his rookie season with a team-high 1,035 rushing yards but amassed only 3 rushing touchdowns.

Patterson has put up the best offensive production of his career since joining the Falcons, but he will be 32 when the season starts and has struggled with injuries in each of the last two seasons.

The fact that the Falcons were able to finish with the third-most rushing yards (2,718) last season despite having the ninth-fewest total yards (5,417) is a testament to their commitment to the running game.

By adding Robinson to their roster with such high draft capital, it’s clear that the team intends to remain one of the most run-focused teams in the league in 2023.

It helps the case for Robinson that Falcons head coach Arthur Smith coached Tennessee Titans star rusher Derrick Henry as Henry won back-to-back rushing titles in 2019 and 2020. Smith clearly has no qualms about running the football, and with no proven assets at the quarterback position, the path will be open for Smith to force-feed Robinson the rock.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Award Trends

Dating back to 1967, running backs have won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 35 out of 56 years. However, the award has begun to swing towards quarterbacks and wide receivers more frequently in recent years; the last back to win the award was Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Like Barkley, Robinson carries an elite collegiate resume into the NFL and was drafted within the top-10 picks of the NFL Draft. Plus, like Barkley and Alvin Kamara, who both leveraged their rushing work with impressive pass-catching numbers in their rookie of the year campaigns, Robinson profiles as an elite pass-catcher.

His 6.8-yard average depth of target in 2022, via PFF, was closer to the likes of his contemporaries at the tight end position than it is to fellow running backs, demonstrating his ability to provide receiving utility beyond just dump-off passes.

What Stands in the Way

Robinson’s situation sets him up well for a bid at the OROY award, which is part of why he currently leads the pack with his +300 odds. There are, however, factors outside of the running back’s control that could influence the AP’s decision by the end of the season.

For starters, he will likely need to stay healthy for the majority of the Falcons’ games this season.

Virtually every winner of the award in recent history has played close to a full season’s worth of games. Those who didn’t, like Odell Beckhamand Todd Gurley, each missed time at the beginning of their rookie seasons before finishing their rookie years with extremely productive performances.

It’s worth noting that Robinson suffered a season-ending elbow injury in 2021 and missed time with neck and shoulder injuries at various points during his collegiate career, but he should enter the 2023 season healthy.

Robinson will also need to outshine his competition for the award --especially considering how the award has leaned in favor of quarterbacks and wide receivers in recent years. Quarterbacks have won 8 of the last 13 awards, and wide receivers took the title in each of the past 2 seasons.

The wide receivers in the 2023 draft class don’t initially appear to have the kinds of resumes that Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson leveraged into their respective titles, but Robinson will still face stiff competition from the three first-round quarterbacks and second-round pick Will Levis (+2500).

Robinson’s odds may fluctuate over the course of the offseason as we learn more and more about the new crop of rookies and their teams, but as long as he stays healthy, he should remain in the mix of favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

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