NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Stefon Diggs Deserves a Little More Respect

Stefon Diggs has been one of the true superstar receivers in the NFL over the past few years, yet somehow, it still feels like he doesn’t get enough credit.

The former fifth-round pick spent the first few years of his career smashing expectations while toiling away efficiently for Mike Zimmer’s old-school, ground-and-pound Minnesota Vikings teams. He wasn't a household name until the Minneapolis Miracle changed everything -- he’s caught at least 1,000 receiving yards in every season since that epic moment in the 2017 NFL playoffs.

Even after changing teams (in the same trade that netted the Vikings the first-round pick that later became Justin Jefferson), Diggs has maintained elite production. Initial reactions to the move deemed it a possible doomsday event for Diggs’ outlook. After all, this was the same Bills team that former star receiver Antonio Brown refused to play for (kind of) just a season earlier.

But Diggs’ play reached a whole new level in Buffalo, and his arrival unlocked quarterback Josh Allen's potential. Since Diggs joined the squad, Allen has been one of the most prolific passers in the NFL. For Diggs, this has meant three consecutive seasons with more than 100 catches, 1,200 yards, and at least 8 touchdowns.

Only Jefferson (4,825), Davante Adams (4,443), and Tyreek Hill (4,225) have put up more receiving yards than Diggs’ 4,189-yard total over the past three seasons.

Any way you look at it, he’s been one of the game’s elites, yet it almost feels like there’s been something missing.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Diggs’ Offensive Player of the Year betting odds listed at +3000, trailing the odds of his counterparts we listed above. According to those odds, he’s just the 15th-most likely to win the OPOY award in 2023. Given his track record, betting on Diggs when he’s considered an underdog seems like a winning proposition.

The Cream of the Crop

Diggs has produced like a superstar over the past few seasons, and few wide receivers have a case for being more important than Diggs to their offenses.

For starters, he has virtually been the Bills’ entire receiving game over the past three years, which is saying a lot. He’s been one of the driving forces that has resulted in the Bills’ offense ranking no worse than third in the NFL in total points scored in any of the past three years.

The 2022 season was a pretty good example of just how vital Diggs is to the Bills’ offense. Diggs caught 11 of Allen’s 35 passing touchdowns in 2022 and accounted for more than a third of Allen’s total passing yards -- one of the highest shares across the entire league.

Behind Diggs, though, the Bills’ offense really starts to fall off.

Allen finished the year as an elite passer, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over the course of the season (the seventh-best rate in the league). If we take Diggs’ production out of that equation, Allen mustered just 6.2 yards per attempt when targeting the rest of the team’s pass catchers. That 6.2 figure would have tied him with Kenny Pickett, who ranked 32nd in the league last season in that stat.

Obviously, you can’t just pull a WR1 out of an offense and expect the quarterback’s numbers to still look good (if you could, that team either needs a new WR1 or has Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback). I'm not saying that Allen is only as good as Pickett without Diggs keeping him afloat. What I am saying is that Diggs should be getting a lot more credit than he currently gets for elevating an otherwise unexciting group of receivers on the Bills.

Allen threw 14 picks during the 2022 season. Just one of those came on throws where Diggs was the intended receiver despite Diggs leading the team in targets (by far) with 154. Gabriel Davis’ 93 targets ranked second on the team. Davis did lead the team in interceptions when targeted, with 6 of Allen’s 14 occurring when he was the intended target (tied for the second-most in the league).

The skill gap between Diggs and the rest of the Bills’ pass-catchers has been pretty apparent over the seasons. He carries the weight of the team’s passing offense on his shoulders and has somehow risen to the challenge year after year. Teams know the ball is going to Diggs, but both he and the Bills make magic happen regardless.

Defenses locking onto Diggs isn’t exactly a new proposition. Those defenses can feel relatively confident in their ability to lock down the Bills’ remaining pass-catchers while allocating significant resources in Diggs’ direction, and we haven’t seen the rest of the Bills’ pass-catchers punish those defenses much at all.

But we did see it once.

In the 2021 playoffs, a tired Chiefs' defense focused all of their resources on defending Diggs in what became one of the most exciting games in NFL history. That fixation on Diggs opened up vast swaths of grass for the rest of his team, and NFL audiences saw Davis take advantage of the opportunity in spectacular fashion. While the Chiefs swarmed Diggs, Davis set a playoff record with his 8-catch, 201-yard, and 4-score day.

Unfortunately for Bills fans, Davis was unable to be a consistent producer during the 2022 season. Without a bonafide or reliable WR2 on the offense, the Bills’ passing game once again depended on Diggs to do the heavy lifting (which he did).

The long and short of it is essentially this: Diggs has produced elite numbers over the past few seasons and he’s been doing it without much support. Hill has had the benefit of playing alongside elite weapons like Travis Kelce and Jaylen Waddle, and Jefferson had Adam Thielen and a dangerous running game there to take some attention off of him in Minnesota. Diggs has kept pace with his peers while playing the game on hard mode.

If you’re reading between the lines a bit, you might already know where we’re headed with this. Diggs’ heavy gravity means there’s a massive opportunity up for grabs in Buffalo’s offense. We’ve seen, at times, just how good that can make a player like Davis look. But we haven’t seen what having that steady second option could do for Diggs, meaning it’s possible we haven’t even seen Diggs’ true ceiling as a receiver yet.

A Potential Spiked Season

So what happens if defenses have to start approaching the Bills’ offense honestly?

Until now, the Bills’ best means of punishing the defense for focusing on Diggs has been Allen’s legs -- he’s been one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league over the past few seasons. But the Bills also tried to address their dearth of receiving options in the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting prolific Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid on the first night of the event. If Kincaid lives up to expectations -- or if Davis truly breaks out) -- Diggs could end up seeing lighter coverage than he has in any of his three seasons in Buffalo.

The best previous example we could look to is the 2020 season, Diggs’ first year with Buffalo. At that point, the team was still getting solid play out of slot receiver Cole Beasley and deep threat John Brown, which helped Diggs to produce the best season of his career: 127 catches for 1,535 yards and 8 scores in 16 games. Davis also shined as a fourth-round rookie that season, catching 35 balls for 599 yards and 7 touchdowns.

A rising tide lifts all boats. Every upgrade the Bills make on offense helps the team get a little better. The less the Bills need to rely on Diggs to move the chains for them, the more freedom he gets to rip off explosive plays.

Recent winners of the Offensive Player of the Year award at the wide receiver position have averaged 141 receptions for 1,827 yards (per 17 games) in their winning seasons. That’s not super far away from Diggs’ average 17-game pace over the past few seasons (120 catches for 1,483 yards). Considering Diggs plays for one of the most aggressive passing offenses in the NFL, it shouldn’t be shocking if Diggs crests 1,800 receiving yards this season, especially if Kincaid hits the ground running in Year 1.

In Summary

The Bills have put an enormous amount of pressure on Diggs to carry their receiver room over the past few seasons. He has more than lived up to their lofty expectations, but it’s possible that those circumstances have actually held him back from reaching his true potential.

With a renewed investment in the Bills’ offense, 2023 could be the year Diggs has his true superstar season.

At +3000 odds to win the Offensive Player of the Year award he makes for an interesting sleeper bet on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.