NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Jonathan Taylor Is Still a Baller

What a difference a year makes.

This time last year, fantasy analysts and NFL fans alike were debating just how high the ceiling was for Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. At the time, it seemed like there might not even have been a true limit on his potential.

Things didn’t quite go to plan for Taylor or the Colts in 2022, though. The Colts opened the season with a shocking tie against the worst team in the league – the Houston Texans – before losing in shutout fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. Taylor suffered a tough ankle sprain towards the end of the team’s Week 4 loss to the Tennessee Titans and was forced to battle through the injury for the remainder of the season.

The Colts, who had been favored to win the AFC South before the start of the season, finished the campaign with a 4-12-1 record while Taylor was limited to just 11 total games. It was a disaster of a season from start to finish, but things are looking a little better for the 2023 season.

Taylor should get back on track in 2023 and his Offensive Player of the Year award betting odds (+2500) are slowly catching up to his superstar potential. He has the eighth-best odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook to take home the award this season and is tied for the second-best odds among running backs.

Getting Past the 2022 Season

It’s hard to forget just how disappointing the Colts’ 2022 season was, but we shouldn’t be holding it against Taylor too much. The ankle injury he suffered in Week 4 cost him two games immediately afterward. He rushed back onto the field for the team’s Week 7 and Week 8 games only to further aggravate the injury while trying to help dig his team out from the hole they nestled into over the opening weeks of the season. He didn’t look right when he returned from the injury the second time and finally ended his season with yet another ankle sprain in the opening snaps of the team’s Week 15 game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Taylor rested up over the final weeks of the season rather than return to a team with no shot at a playoff berth and had a cleanup surgery in January to make sure his ankle will be right for the 2023 season. He avoided any structural damage and is expected to be good to go by the team’s upcoming training camp. In other words, it’s wheels up for Taylor in 2023.

The star running back’s efficiency took a big hit due to his injury last season. Where he had previously rushed for over five yards per carry in each of his first two seasons in the league, his per-carry clip dropped to just 4.5 yards in 2022. He was being met behind the line of scrimmage frequently while Indy’s once-great offensive line faltered, and despite his strong tackle-breaking prowess, he still only put up a career-low two yards after contact per attempt.

It was easy to see just how limited Taylor was by injuries when you look at his explosive play numbers. Where he had previously been a big-play waiting to happen in each of his first two seasons (during which he recorded 39 rushes of 15-plus yards), Taylor finished the 2022 season with just 7 attempts earning at least 15 yards.

The most encouraging part of Taylor’s disappointing season was his surprisingly strong performance in the NFL Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt, which charts how well an NFL back produces compared to an average-level player with their opportunities. Despite his disastrous surroundings and his own injuries, Taylor still averaged 0.56 RYOE/attempt in 2022, the 15th-best mark in the league. His situation was bleak, but he still managed to make a little bit of something out of a whole lot of nothing in spite of it.

Turning the Corner in 2023

It’s okay to feel a bit more optimistic about Taylor’s outlook for the upcoming season. The Colts’ offensive line completely fell apart while trying to do too much last season, but Pro Football Focus cautiously ranks the unit as a whole in their top-10 offensive lines for the 2023 season. That would be a massive boon for Taylor after he spent too much time breaking tackles behind the line of scrimmage a season ago.

He also won’t have to make up for the team’s complete and total lack of a passing offense. The team had optimism about Matt Ryan heading into the 2022 season, but the veteran quarterback quickly quashed any shred of hope the team had about having a functional passing offense. The former MVP just couldn’t physically keep up in his age-37 season; he was completely unable to evade pressure, couldn’t push the ball down the field at all, and eventually shelled up behind their offensive line by the end of the year. It got bad enough that the team benched him for Sam Ehlinger at one point.

The Colts are revamping their quarterback position in 2023, bringing in 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson to spearhead their offense. Richardson will be a bit of a wild card as a passer entering his first season. He did not have the kind of extensive track record that fellow first-rounders like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud compiled in their collegiate careers but possesses truly elite physical gifts the Colts have lacked since the retirement of Andrew Luck.

The shape of the Colts’ passing offense this year looks much more conducive to an efficient rushing attack. Their cannon-armed quarterback should be able to take advantage of their underrated receiver group, which features a big-bodied route-runner in Michael Pittman Jr., one of the fastest 6’3” receivers in the league in Alec Pierce, and rookie receiver Josh Downs, who was one of the most productive receivers in the NCAA over the last two seasons.

It’s pretty clear how the Colts want the 2023 season to pan out. They want one of the most athletic quarterbacks of all time chucking bombs to their big-time playmakers to stress defenses vertically while said quarterback and Jonathan Taylor punish those same defenses on the ground.

The pairing of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield could create one of the most dynamic duos we’ve seen in recent memory. Richardson blazed a 4.43-second 40-yard dash while measuring in at 6’4” and 244 pounds at the NFL Combine. Taylor himself ran a 4.39-second time at 226 lbs at his own combine, setting the Colts up to feature unrivaled size and athleticism in their rushing game this season.

Defenses won’t be able to fully commit to stopping Taylor on the ground due to the threat of Richardson breaking off runs from the quarterback position. The existence of a passing game – especially an explosive one – will stress opposing defenses out way more than the Colts were able to last season.

Regression -- But Back Toward Stardom

We’ve been covering just how bad things were for Taylor last year, and we’ve touched on why things should look better in 2023. But we haven’t quite addressed the heights Taylor is capable of reaching in a functional situation.

Taylor’s breakout 2021 season was unreal. Were it not for Cooper Kupp’s record-setting campaign, he would already have an OPOY award under his belt. Taylor finished second in the AP’s OPOY voting that season, garnering 20% of the first-place votes.

He earned those votes with his insane production. He rushed the ball 332 times for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns, leading the league in each of those categories. He even caught an additional 40 passes for 360 yards and 2 more touchdowns, bringing his total yards from scrimmage to over 2,000 yards for the year -- and his total touchdowns up to 20. Taylor was a force of nature in 2021 and should be able to pick up where he left off that season in the upcoming year.

Taylor was one of the few backs in the league capable of maintaining elite efficiency while handling absurd rushing volume. His 5.5 yards-per-carry average that year ranked fifth-best in the league while the four players ahead of him – three of whom played the quarterback position – barely handled a third of his rushing workload.

Taylor’s early-career trajectory showed his potential to join the elite few running backs with 2,000-yard rushing seasons on their resume. Derrick Henry has been the only running back to reach that mark over the last 10 seasons and deservedly won the OPOY award for his efforts that year. Taylor could be the next in line to do the same, and he should likely expect an OPOY award of his own if he does accomplish that feat.

Taylor is poised to steamroll his opposition this season, and not just because of his improved health and surroundings. The Colts project to face the third-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2023, according to Sharp Football Analysis. In addition to playing in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL (which means two matchups a year against weak defenses from the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans), they’ll play against a potentially-even-weaker NFC South this season, as well as a depleted Los Angeles Rams roster. Their schedule is packed with matchups against struggling defenses and other rookie quarterbacks, putting Taylor in position for another 300-plus-touch year.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.