The Los Angeles Rams’ 2022 season did not go according to plan. The reigning Super Bowl Champions went from the highest peak the sport offers down to the lowest depths over the course of just a single season.

The Rams’ season completely fell off the rails, but Cooper Kupp stayed on track for as long as he could; if not for an ankle injury that prematurely ended his season, we could be talking about the prolific receiver as the first back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year winner since Marshall Faulk.

It’s not surprising to see one of the most dominant receivers in the game among the early frontrunners to take home the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award for the upcoming season. What’s perhaps more surprising is that he has only the fourth-best odds to win the award at +2000, per the Offensive Player of the Year odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Ja'Marr Chase (+1200), Justin Jefferson (+1400), and Christian McCaffrey (+1600) each have shorter odds to win the OPOY award than Kupp.

Should that actually be the case, though?

Cooper Kupp Is a Machine

Travis Kelce is probably the only other pass-catcher in the league who provokes as many “How did the defense not cover him on that play?” questions as Kupp does.

Those two players, more than arguably any other players in the league, have been their team’s go-to guy in every situation over the past few years. Every defense knows that they have to focus on Kupp and Kelce when they play the Rams and the Chiefs, respectively. And yet, somehow, those guys end up with the ball in their hands more often than not.

This was especially true of Kupp in his OPOY-winning 2021 campaign, during which he caught almost 100 more passes than any other player on his team. Kupp finished that season with 145 catches for an insane 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams’ next-best pass-catcher, Tyler Higbee, finished the year with 61 receptions for 560 yards.

Kupp's elite production that season wasn’t just a fluke, either. In fact, since Matthew Stafford took over from Jared Goff as the Rams’ quarterback, Kupp has consistently seen the biggest passing-game workload in the league. After averaging 8.5 receptions per game in 2021, Kupp was leading the league in that stat with 8.3 receptions per game in 2022.

Rams games over the last two years have essentially followed the same routine every week: Kupp clocks in, catches 8 to 9 passes for 90-plus yards, and clocks out.

It virtually hasn’t mattered how opposing defenses prepare for their matchup with the Rams -- Kupp has finished with at least 75 receiving yards in all but two of his healthy games since 2021.

Business as Usual for 2023

The Rams haven’t made many fundamental changes as a team that would indicate a plan to move away from a Kupp-heavy approach on offense in 2023.

They do not have an established WR2 on their roster behind Kupp and instead will be entering yet another season with hopes that one of Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, or Ben Skowronek can add something to their offense.

The circumstances that led to Kupp’s record-setting performance remain more or less intact for the upcoming season. Kupp’s Week 10 ankle injury cut his 2022 season short, but he will be fully healthy before Week 1. And while Stafford and head coach Sean McVay each contemplated retirement after 2022’s brutal, injury-marred 5-12 season, both will return in 2023.

It doesn’t take an NFL defensive coordinator to look at those factors and guess what the Rams plan on doing on offense this year -- they’re going to pass the ball to Kupp. A lot.

The same circumstances that allowed Kupp to lead the league in receptions per game over the last two seasons remain in place for 2023, setting him up well to make another run at the OPOY award with a healthy season.

The Calvin Johnson Comparison

It’s wild that the two greatest wide receiver seasons of all time -- Kupp’s 2021 and Calvin Johnson’s 2012 -- each had Stafford as their gunslinger. In both seasons, Stafford locked onto his top receiver repeatedly, helping his star wideout rack up more than 1,900 yards.

Even with the benefit of an additional 17th game in the NFL’s regular season, Kupp couldn’t quite reach the summit of Johnson’s 1,964-yard season. He may have caught 23 more passes than Johnson did in his record-setting season, but Johnson had the advantage over Kupp when it came to total opportunities.

The 2012 Lions had a truly terrible defense, forcing the team’s offense to play in a constant state of catch-up mode. Those negative game scripts were one of the contributing factors that led to Johnson leading the league with an absurd 204 targets -- the second-most all-time in a single season.

Kupp’s 1,947-yard season came on a Rams team that was actually putting up wins. The 2021 Rams' defense pulled its weight as the team made a Super Bowl run, allowing the offense to pump the breaks on their passing game at points. Kupp’s production wasn’t solely necessitated by negative game-scripts -- the offense ran through him because he was their best option.

The 2023 Rams won’t have that same luxury of playing with a strong defense. Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic estimated that at least 15 rookies will make the Rams’ final 53-man roster. If early depth-chart projections are to be believed, Aaron Donald will be the only player on their starting defense to have been drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.

Playing with a weaker defense than he’s had in the past two years could lead to even more voluminous passing from Stafford in 2023. And given that almost half of his pass attempts have been thrown in Kupp’s direction, that means we could see Kupp average even more than the 8.4 receptions per game he’s posted over the last two years.

To lay it all out -- Kupp has already been the most prolific receiver in the NFL while playing with solid defenses and average game scripts. The Rams’ defense in 2023 could be among the worst in the league, which could force the LA offense to attempt more passes than ever before in order to keep pace.

That boost in volume could put Kupp in a position to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record, or even to become the first receiver in NFL history to exceed 2,000 yards in any single season.

Conclusion

If not for his own injury and the injuries to his quarterback last year, Kupp legitimately could have won back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2021 and 2022.

He has been the most prolific receiver in the league during that time in spite of the intense focus he draws from opposing defenses. He’s set up to not only continue his unrivaled production this season, but he could potentially reach new heights thanks to a Rams defense that may struggle.

It’s not too often that we can say that a receiver might break 2,000 receiving yards in any given year without sounding too far-fetched. It is even rarer that the receiver in question has just the fourth-best odds (+2000) to win the Offensive Player of the Year award.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.